The NBA playoffs continue with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics will travel to Miami to take on the Heat, who are listed as three-point home favorites.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jimmy Butler is a great player, and he seems to take his game to another level during the playoffs. He’s been phenomenal during the postseason, averaging 29.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 2.3 steals per game while shooting 53.5% from the field. Overall, he’s increased his production from 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season to 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Butler is coming off an absolute masterpiece in Game 1 of this series. He finished with 72.75 DraftKings points thanks to 41 points, nine rebounds, five assists, four steals, and three blocked shots.
The diversity in his skill set is what makes him so effective in fantasy. He can impact the game in multiple ways, which gives him an incredibly high floor and ceiling. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games, and the two exceptions have been games where he played reduced minutes. As long as Thursday’s game is competitive, there’s no reason to expect much to change.
Still, Butler has been priced up to $11,000 on DraftKings, making him a smidge more expensive than Jayson Tatum. That could be a mistake. Butler has been better during the postseason, but Tatum was the superior per-minute producer during the regular season.
Tatum also has the benefit of playing without two key teammates on Thursday. Derrick White has been ruled out for personal reasons, while Al Horford is doubtful after entering health and safety protocols. White joined the Celtics rotation on February 11, and Tatum has increased his usage rate by +2.1% with White and Horford off the floor since then. The result is an average of 1.31 DraftKings points per minute.
Tatum currently leads the slate with 42 projected minutes, and he’s been a model of consistency during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game, including 55.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Heat.
Tatum owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models, so he’s grading out as a better value than Butler. Both players are definitely viable – and pairing both together could be the preferred strategy – but Tatum has the edge if you can only choose one.
Jaylen Brown is often overshadowed by Tatum, but he’s a stud producer in his own right. He’s coming off 45.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s racked up at least that many fantasy points in four of his past seven games. He’s seen a slight downtick in production during the postseason, but he’s still been good enough to return value more often than not.
Ultimately, Brown ranks second in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models, trailing only Tatum. Both players are also positively correlated, so using both teammates in the same lineup is doable.
Bam Adebayo rounds out the stud tier, but he hasn’t exactly played like a stud recently. He’s scored 25.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four of his past five games, and his usage rate has been way down over that stretch. He’s posted an average usage rate of 13.8% over his past four games, including a playoff-low of 9.8% in Game 1 vs. the Celtics. Adebayo posted a career-high 25.0% usage rate during the regular season, representing a significant decrease.
However, Adebayo did rack up 37.5 minutes in Game 1, which was his top mark since the first round of the playoffs. That gives him some buy-low appeal at $8,400. Adebayo has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s a strong candidate for some positive regression.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Marcus Smart missed Game 1 of this series due to a right mid-foot sprain, but he is expected to return to the lineup on Thursday. The timing is good for the Celtics given the absence of White, who started in place of Smart on Tuesday.
Smart also has the potential to be a bit more effective than usual. He’s seen a team-high +5.6% usage bump with White and Horford off the court, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. He’s already been effective recently, scoring at least 36.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he has more appeal than usual.
Tyler Herro was one of the stars in Miami’s last deep playoff run, but he’s been more of a bit player this season. The Sixth Man of the Year hasn’t been asked to play a ton of minutes on most nights, which has led to inconsistent results. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past five games.
Herro is coming off a strong performance in Game 1, finishing with 33.0 DraftKings points in 27.5 minutes. However, his usage rate of 33.2% was a bit higher than usual. He’s also seen a slight price increase across the industry, making him one of the weaker options in this price range.
Max Strus has become an essential part of the Heat’s rotation. He’s started each of their 12 playoff contests, and he’s recorded two double-doubles in his past three games. However, he did come crashing back to reality in Game 1 vs. the Celtics, racking up just 24.0 DraftKings points over 30.1 minutes.
Most of Strus’s field goal attempts come from 3-point range, which gives him a wide range of outcomes. On nights when his jumper is falling, he has the potential to provide value. On nights where it isn’t, he’s likely going to bust. The fact that his price tag has jumped from $4,600 at the start of the postseason to $6,400 on Thursday increases the odds of a bust performance. He’s one of the easier fades.
Robert Williams returned to the starting lineup in the Celtics’ last game, and he will almost assuredly draw another start if Horford is ruled out. However, Horford was recently upgraded from doubtful to questionable, so it sounds like there’s a chance that Horford suits up.
If Horford plays, he’s worth some consideration at $7,800. Horford had some massive performances vs. the Bucks, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. Horford likely won’t be on a minute restriction if he can play – he missed just one contest – and his price has decreased by more than -$1,000 from its peak.
If Horford is ruled out, Williams becomes one of the best plays in this price range. He’s a capable per-minute producer, and he played 28.5 minutes sans Horford in Game 1. He may see a few additional minutes in that scenario on Thursday, so he would be a great bet to return value. Make sure to monitor this situation before building your lineups.
Grant Williams is another player who would benefit from the absence of Horford. However, he’s far more important to the Celtics than he is to fantasy owners. Despite playing plenty of minutes, Williams has managed 13.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four of his past five games. The lone exception was Game 7 vs. the Bucks, who basically dared him to shoot 3-pointers all evening. He had a ridiculous 18 3-point attempts in that contest, which is the definition of an outlier performance. The Heat limited him to just two 3-point attempts in Game 1, so don’t expect much from Williams as a scorer on Tuesday.
Victor Oladipo is another easy fade in this price range. He was once an All-Star caliber shooting guard, but injuries have left him as a shell of his former self. He’s been a minimal part of Miami’s rotation when the team has been at full strength, and he played just 15.4 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Celtics. Oladipo is a solid per-minute contributor for his price tag, but he’s not seeing enough minutes to take advantage.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Payton Pritchard ($4,800 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel): Pritchard was a massive value in the Celtics’ last game, finishing with 33.75 DraftKings points over 30.4 minutes. He’ll likely lose some minutes with Smart reentering the rotation, but the absence of White should keep him relevant.
- P.J. Tucker ($4,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Tucker is a mediocre per-minute producer, but he typically sees plenty of playing time. He managed just 19.0 DraftKings points over 31.3 minutes in Game 1, but he had at least 28.75 DraftKings points in his previous two outings. He’s a safe investment with some upside.
- Gabe Vincent ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Vincent has started at point guard for the Heat with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup, who remains out on Thursday. Vincent has provided steady value in that role, and he’s coming off 31.0 DraftKings points in Game 1. He’s one of the top options in this price range.
- Dewayne Dedmon ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Dedmon will serve as Adebayo’s backup, and he plays a bit more than you might think. He’s also a solid per-minute producer, and he’s coming off 13.0 DraftKings points over 10.5 minutes on Tuesday. He stands out as a solid points-per-dollar option.
- Daniel Theis ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Theis is not really in play if Horford suits up, but he’s worth some consideration if Horford sits. He racked up 19.6 minutes with Horford out of the lineup in Game 1, and he responded with 18.0 DraftKings points.
- Caleb Martin ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Martin hasn’t displayed much upside of late, but he does see a couple of minutes each night. At just $1,000 on DraftKings, he doesn’t need to do much to return value.
- Aaron Nesmith ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Nesmith might be the preferred minimum-priced option on this slate. He saw 11.3 minutes in Game 1, and he could see a few minutes again with White sidelined.
