The NBA playoffs continue with Game 1 of the Western Conference finals Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET. The Mavericks will travel to San Francisco to take on the Warriors, who are listed as 5.5-point home favorites. The Warriors are also sizable favorites to win the series, and they have the best odds to win the NBA Finals as well.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Only two players can be considered studs in this matchup: Luka Doncic and Steph Curry.
Let’s start with Luka. He is expensive if you want to use him in the Captain spot on DraftKings, but he’s been worth every penny during the postseason. He’s scored at least 57.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he was nothing short of magnificent in Game 7. He scored 35 points on 12-19 shooting, finishing with 61.0 DraftKings points in just 30.4 minutes.
Overall, Doncic has increased his production to 1.65 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. He led the league with a 37.4% usage rate during the regular season, and he increased that figure to 41.8% vs. the Suns.
Unsurprisingly, Doncic dominates this slate from a projection standpoint. His median and ceiling projections are more than 15 points greater than every other player’s, making him virtually impossible to fade. If he hits his ceiling, no one can come close to matching his upside. He’ll carry massive ownership, but he’s simply too good to fade.
Curry is the other stud option, but his production has been much more mediocre during the playoffs. He’s done a solid job returning value – he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games on DraftKings – but he’s yet to have a true “Curryesque” performance. His shooting numbers have been mediocre by his lofty standards, drilling just 45.1% of his shots from the field and 35.9% from 3-point range.
Still, Curry continues to put up shots in bunches, and he can get red-hot from 3-point range. He seems overdue for a monster performance, and his $11,000 price tag on DraftKings is reasonable. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, which is the top mark on the slate.
Ideally, I’ll be looking to jam Doncic and Curry into most of my lineups, preferably with one in the Captain slot. You’ll have to get creative with the rest of your lineup, but it’s possible. They rank first and second on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus, so they stand out as the best values and the two players with the most scoring potential. That’s an excellent combination.
However, if you only have space for one of the two, Doncic gets the clear edge.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
The Warriors got all they could handle from the Grizzlies in the last round, even with the injury to Ja Morant. However, Game 6 Klay Thompson is simply too much for mere mortals to handle. Thompson always seems to deliver his best when the Warriors need it most, and he torched the Grizzlies for 30 points on 8-14 shooting from 3-point range in Game 6. He ultimately finished with 51.5 DraftKings points at just $9,000, good for a Plus/Minus of +19.38.
That said, that performance stands out as a clear outlier. Thompson posted 30.25 DraftKings points or fewer in four of his previous five games, so this is an excellent time to sell high on him. Like Curry, Thompson is also capable of getting scorching hot in any contest, so there’s always some risk in fading him. Still, his shot volume is much lower than Curry’s on most nights, and he doesn’t provide nearly as much value in the peripheral categories. He’s ultimately a bit too expensive for me on Wednesday.
Jalen Brunson has earned himself a nice pay raise in the offseason. The upcoming free agent has been massive for the Mavericks during the postseason, and he served as their No. 2 scoring threat vs. the Suns. His 28.2% usage rate ranked second on the team in the second round of the postseason, and it represents a massive increase from his mark of 21.9% during the regular season. Brunson has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he has more upside with a higher usage rate. He’s gotten more expensive recently, but he’s still returned positive value in four of his past five games.
Draymond Green is vital to the Warriors’ success, but he’s not the same fantasy producer he was in his prime. He’s become virtually non-existent as a scorer, finishing with six points or fewer in five of six games against the Grizzlies. In his prime, Draymond was a nightly triple-double threat, but his lack of scoring keeps him from hitting that threshold on most occasions.
He’s another player coming off a big performance in Game 6 that is a worthy fade candidate. Draymond racked up 46.25 DraftKings points, but he finished with 29.0 or fewer in each of the previous five games vs. the Grizzlies. Overall, his production has dipped to just 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
The Splash Brothers have officially added a new member to the family. Jordan Poole has emerged as an essential part of the Warriors’ rotation, regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench. His playing time has dwindled in his past two games, but he hasn’t been needed in either contest. He played at least 31.2 minutes in each of the four previous games vs. the Grizzlies, and he scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in three of them. Poole has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he should continue to provide value with 30+ minutes.
Andrew Wiggins occasionally gets overlooked for the Warriors. The former No. 1 overall pick has never lived up to his full potential, but he has played his role perfectly for the Warriors this season. He put together the most efficient scoring numbers of his career, and he’s also become a bit more of a threat in the peripheral categories. Specifically, he’s averaged 6.9 rebounds per game during the postseason. He doesn’t have a ton of upside for his price tag, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings. He’s a safe investment.
Dorian Finney-Smith is basically the Mavericks’ version of Draymond. That’s not a perfect comparison – there’s only one Draymond – but he’s out there specifically to anchor the Maverick’s defense. He’s also capable of chipping in a bit in every category, and he’s much more potent than Draymond from 3-point range.
DFS has logged all the minutes he can handle during the postseason, and he’s currently projected for 39 in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can return value with that much playing time. He’s a particularly nice option at just $10,000 on FanDuel.
Spencer Dinwiddie is my top fade candidate on this slate. He was instrumental in the Mavericks’ Game 7 blowout win vs. the Suns, finishing with 43.25 DraftKings points in just 25.4 minutes. However, his shooting numbers from that contest are unsustainable. He made 11-15 shots from the field and 5-7 from 3-point range, which isn’t going to happen on most nights.
Dinwiddie’s performances before that contest have been much more mediocre, posting a negative Plus/Minus in eight of his previous nine games. He’s also gotten more expensive for Wednesday’s contest, making him pretty easy to avoid.
Reggie Bullock is another player who is playing tons of minutes for the Mavericks. He’s a pure perimeter shooter, so his value will come solely from his ability to knock down shots from 3-point range. If he gets hot from downtown – as he did in Game 6 vs. the Suns – he has the potential to provide excellent value at his current salary. If he doesn’t, he’s going to bust. That’s not groundbreaking analysis, but it’s true for a player like Bullock. The Warriors’ 3-point defense has been mediocre during the playoffs, but they have been slightly better than the Suns.
Maxi Kleber rounds out this price range, and his minutes have been a bit more scarce during the playoffs. However, he makes up for it with solid per-minute production. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. There’s not much to get excited about with Kleber, but he has a shot at returning value.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Otto Porter ($4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Porter picked up an injury in Game 5 of the Warriors’ last series, and he was out of the lineup in Game 6. However, he is probable to suit up on Wednesday. Porter is a strong per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season – and he should see at least 20 minutes in this spot.
- Kevon Looney ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Looney entered the Warriors’ starting lineup in Game 6 at the request of Green and Curry, and that decision paid massive dividends. He racked up 22 rebounds and 40.0 DraftKings points over 35.2 minutes. His playing time stands out as a massive outlier – he logged 18.7 minutes or less in each of his previous five games – but he could draw another start given his success in Game 6.
- Dwight Powell ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Powell is very similar to Looney, but he doesn’t have nearly the same upside. There’s a chance that Looney sees big minutes again on Wednesday, but Powell is locked into a minuscule workload. He doesn’t provide enough upside to justify his current salary.
- Davis Bertans ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The Mavs have dusted off Bertans recently, and he’s capable of knocking down some shots from behind the arc. He has two games with at least 14.75 DraftKings points in his last four, and he only needs to make a couple of 3-pointers to potentially return value. He’s not my favorite punt play on this slate, but he has a path to relevance.
- Jonathan Kuminga ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): If Looney doesn’t remain in the starting lineup, that honor will likely go to Kuminga. The rookie has put his immense talent on display all year, but he remains a raw prospect. Even if he does start, he doesn’t figure to see a ton of playing time. Still, Kuminga has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he played 17.6 minutes or less in three of them.
- Damion Lee ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): If you’re looking for a pure punt play, Lee fits the bill. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, but he should have a role for the Warriors in this contest. He’s scored at least 11.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and he’s currently projected for 12 minutes.
- Frank Ntilikina ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Ntilikina is the Mavericks’ version of Lee. He’s only projected for 10 minutes, but he has been slightly more productive than Lee on a per-minute basis this season. Lee likely has more upside, but Ntilikina has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games.
