The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Thursday’s evening slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Michael Taylor ($2,300): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
It’s worth noting that tonight’s slate will differ by site. FanDuel features a four-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET, while DraftKings features a three-game slate at 8:05 p.m. ET. That means the game between the Reds and Pirates is not an option on DraftKings.
The Royals are coming off a monstrous 8-2 victory last night, making it 12 runs scored over their past couple of games. Michael Taylor has gotten in on the action, recording two runs and one run batted in across those outings but could see his fantasy value soar on Thursday.
Taylor’s expected values are all above actual, implying that he is a progression candidate over the coming games. The Royals outfielder has a .419 expected slugging percentage, which is substantially higher than his actual .282 rating. Similarly, he’s well below his career average of .382, also lending itself to increased productivity from Taylor.
The right-handed batting Taylor also gets a favorable pitching matchup against southpaw Taylor Hearn. Hearn has pitched 20.2 innings across five starts, failing to make it past the fifth inning in any of them. The 27-year-old has been ice cold to start the season, allowing a .549 expected slugging percentage and .415 expected weighted on-base average.
The Royals are trending up, and Taylor is among the top-rated bargains in THE BAT X projections on Thursday.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Michael Perez ($2,000): Catcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have scored five or more runs in three of their past five, coinciding with Michael Perez‘s return to the lineup. Of course, the Pirates’ offensive surge doesn’t lie squarely with Perez, but things have improved since he was called up from the minors. The 29-year-old is slugging .800 through his first ten at-bats of the season, with both of his hits going yard. Those aren’t his only hard-hit balls, though, as Perez has a 44.4% sweet spot rating and a 33.3% hard-hit rate.
Based on our projections, we’re expecting that to continue on Thursday. Perez is one of the best bargains available, with a top-three Projected Plus/Minus and the best Points/Salary rating.
The conclusions we can draw from such a small sample are limited, but we’re not betting against a hot bat in an ideal matchup. Perez is worth the modest investment at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($10,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Six starts into the season, and White Sox ace Dylan Cease is already toting 1.4 Wins Above Replacement. With only a handful of pitching options available, Cease stands out as the top arm on the slate.
Pitchers’ fantasy value is contingent on their strikeout potential, and Cease consistently ranks among the game’s best. The righty finished last season with an AL-best 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, improving on that metric early this season with a 12.4 mark. The New York Yankees have some free swingers in their lineup, elevating Cease’s potential tonight.
However, Cease’s ceiling also relates to his ability to keep opposing offenses in check, limiting the negative fantasy points impacting his overall rating. The 26-year-old ranks in the 96th percentile or better in hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage, and expected batting average, making him one of hardest pitchers to get a hit off in the majors.
Few pitchers are doing what Cease is right now, and the White Sox ace gives you the best chance at succeeding on tonight’s slate.
Hitter
Bryce Harper ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Over the past six games, reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has elevated his slugging percentage from .453 top .521. He’s projected to continue his assault on Thursday, leading THE BAT X ceiling projections as his Phillies take on the Dodgers.
Harper has recorded hits in five of his past six outings, with four multi-hit efforts. He’s making solid contact recording three doubles and two home runs over that stretch, elevating his expected slugging percentage to .591. His actual slugging percentage remains below expected, implying that there is still room to grow.
The six-time All-Star’s fantasy ceiling isn’t limited to home run potential, as Harper adds value on the basepaths as well. The Phillies’ right fielder has a stolen base in three straight games, making it six on the season. We’ve seen a more disciplined approach from Harper at the plate, with only one strikeout over that three-game sample.
The Phillies offense is operating efficiently over their recent sample, and Harper remains the catalyst. He’s our ceiling play on the evening slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Rangers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
According to our algorithm, the Rangers are the best stacking option available on tonight’s slate. They have several highly rated combinations; however, we’re going taking the correlated approach and using the top five projected hitters.
Brad Miller is expected in the lead-off spot, and can build off his recent performances in which he’s gone 4-for-7 with two runs, four runs batted in, and a home run.
Miller is followed by Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, who continue to dent baseballs. Seager is the team leader with seven long balls, with Semien chipping in with eight runs batted in and 11 runs scored.
The quintuplet is rounded off with Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia, who lead the Rangers in some noteworthy categories. Heim is the team leader in slugging percentage with a .622 mark, while Garcia paces the team in runs, runs batted in, and steals.
The Rangers top hitters should get to Taylor Hearn early and often, making them our favorite stacking option.
