The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. As with yesterday, keep an eye on the weather, especially along the I-95 corridor.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-109) at Atlanta Braves
In five starts this season, Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes has continued his breakout 2021 season, proving himself as one of the top pitchers not only in the National League, but in all of baseball.
Throwing 32.2 innings so far, Burnes has an 11.95 K/9 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 35.5% K rate. The walking Fangraphs leaderboard comes in as a slight favorite against the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves — he’s projected for 8.24 strikeouts, which is the highest amongst starting pitchers.
In a tough matchup, the mighty Braves bats are implied for only 3.3 runs, likely attributed to Burnes’ dominance. An upside to being the highest-priced pitcher on the slate is the Braves’ boom-or-bust approach, with the projected lineup having a 0.282 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
If Burnes can miss bats, expect a top outing from a de-facto SP1.
Logan Webb ($9,600) San Francisco Giants (-153) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
After a few rocky starts, San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb appears to have stabilized, grabbing a win in a 9-3 outing against the Washington Nationals on Apr. 3. He threw six innings, allowing three runs on 11 hits in that start.
Pricing wise, it might be time to get on Webb, who has seen his salary increase by more than $2,000 during the course of the first month of baseball. Returning to the safety of Oracle Park, Webb should benefit from a pitcher-friendly Weather Rating and a three-run implied total for the Cardinals.
Projected for 5.34 strikeouts, Webb should be able to limit damage against a projected Cardinals lineup with a projected 0.22 strikeout-per-at-bat average. He also has the most Pro Trends on the slate.
The discount from Burnes should create more breathing room, with Webb as a viable SP1.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Josiah Gray ($7,400) Washington Nationals (+144) at Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals’ arm Josiah Gray has seemingly broken out for his sophomore season. In five starts, Gray has posted a 28.7% K rate, 3.12 ERA, 10.73 K/9 and a 1.31 WHIP.
Last pitching in an 11-5 win over the San Francisco Giants, Gray threw six great innings, allowing one hit and striking out three batters. He has also had two games of eight or more strikeouts.
The Nationals continue their west coast road trip with a meeting against the Los Angeles Angels, and Gray should benefit from the highest Park Factor Rating tonight in Anaheim.
Projected for 6.49 strikeouts, Gray should easily reach fantasy relevance, facing a projected 0.289 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.217 projected wOBA.
In a smash spot, Gray should be considered at the SP2 position, especially with the potential for his salary to skyrocket if his dominance continues.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Sean Manaea ($9,300) San Diego Padres (-129) vs. Miami Marlins
One pitcher who might be overlooked on the slate Saturday is San Diego Padres pitcher Sean Manaea. A slight favorite at home, Manaea should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park, as he faces a projected Marlins lineup with a 0.240 strikeout-per-at-bat average. He’s also projected for 5.52 strikeouts.
The Marlins are implied for 3.2-runs, which is one of the lowest on the slate. Miami has a tough test against Manaea, who has a 9.00 K/9, 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Pricing might be a key factor in Manaea not standing out on DraftKings, but the ceiling is certainly there for the Padres arm.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model , when generated by median projection, belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
NOTE: Kansas City and Baltimore bats project well on DraftKings, but with weather concerns, they have been removed from the player pool.
- C.J. Cron (4) ($5,500)
- Ryan McMahon (5) ($4,000)
- Charlie Blackmon (2) ($4,200)
- Randal Grichuk (3) ($5,100)
- Connor Joe (1) ($5,400)
Colorado has a 4.4-implied run total — which is the highest on the slate — and should certainly take advantage of the hitter-friendly venue of Chase Field. However, be prepared to spend up for the Rockies’ power. At $24,200 on DraftKings, a five-man stack will cost you almost half of your salary.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. Zach Davies has been known to be in blow-up spots and this season, Davies has a 4.24 ERA, 16.3% K rate and 1.33 WHIP. Don’t discredit the Rockies.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
Even in a tough matchup against Gray, the Angels’ projected lineup is loaded with power and has the potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Runs should come at a premium, with a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5, 5-man stack costing more than half of the salary cap at $26,600. Anchored by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels can score at will, despite a pitcher-friendly Park Rating.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Juan Soto OF ($5,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels (Michael Lorenzen)
Removing the Angels and Rockies in search of possible one-off plays, Washington Nationals outfielder and superstar Juan Soto jumps to the top as the highest-rated player in our Tournament Model.
Projected to hit second, Soto is one of the more dynamic batters in the league.
He’s facing Michael Lorenzen of the Angels, who in four starts has a 14% K rate and a 3.04 ERA. If the Nationals do rack up runs, look for Soto to be a primary reason.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr should be in the conversation Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling. Certainly, contrarian, facing Brewers ace Burnes, Acuna still brings plenty of power and is projected to hit leadoff.
Despite the 3.3-run total, a few missteps from Burnes could equate to runs, of which Acuna will certainly take advantage of.
Manuel Margot OF ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
Tampa Bay Rays power hitter Manuel Margot comes at a steep discount and rates as one of the best values on Saturday’s slate on DraftKings. Projected to hit third, Margot has seen his salary drop more than $500 during the past month.
He should be a key piece of the Rays’ success against Marco Gonzales, with Tampa Bay implied for 3.8-runs. With the potential for power at T-Mobile and a deep discount, Margot might be an integral piece in unlocking the slate.
