As the USFL sample size continues to grow, projections (and the competition) get much more efficient. We’re at the point in the season where we can trust projections to be more or less directionally correct and can start making our decisions based on trying to find leverage spots based on less popular players.
One note, though: in an effort to speed up games, the USFL will utilize a running clock following incomplete passes in the first and third quarter. This should — in theory — suppress scoring a bit. I’m not sure if there’s an edge to be had here since it applies to all teams evenly, but it could make paying up for defenses slightly more viable.
Lineup construction is different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback and running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. (It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.)
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. (Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.)
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
J’Mar Smith ($9,500): Birmingham Stallions (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
The USFL’s leader in total fantasy scoring is back as the top quarterback pick for Week 4. Smith is under center for Birmingham, the top offense in the league. They’ve scored a total of 83 points across three games, 12 more than any other team in the league. Much of that has been from Smith, who took over midway through Week 1 in place of starter Alex McGough who left with an injury.
Given the Stallions’ offensive success, it’s probably that Smith stays under center for the rest of the season. A legitimate dual-threat option, Smith, is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns and second in yards despite playing roughly half a game less than most of his competition.
He adds value with his legs as well, with eight carries in each of his two full games. He’s produced 31 and 57 yards with those carries and is yet to find the end zone. That scoring drought should change at some point based on his volume and yardage, so his ceiling is a bit higher than what we’ve seen so far.
Of course, his price has risen as he’s continued to find success. The real question with Smith is whether he’ll do enough to justify it. Betting totals are down across the board in the USFL this week, largely thanks to the rule change discussed in the intro. The Bandits are an average USFL defense ranking fourth in points allowed — so it’s not a particularly enticing matchup.
Smith still manages to be the leader in both median and Pts/Sal projections in our models, though. He’s the odds-on favorite to lead the position in scoring this week, and he should also carry the heaviest ownership.
Tournament Picks
Kyle Sloter ($10,200): New Orleans Breakers (-5) vs. Houston Gamblers
Volume is king in DFS, and Sloter provides a ton of it. He’s attempted 24 more passes than his closest competitor (Smith) and leads the USFL in passing yards. The drawback on Sloter is the types of passes he throws, as his 5.8 yards per completion ranks 8th among USFL QBs. (While there are only eight teams in the USFL, a few teams have used multiple quarterbacks, so eighth is still ahead of a few starters.)
His Breakers take on the aptly-named Houston Gamblers this week. Houston has the league’s second-best scoring offense and worst scoring defense, giving this game legitimate “shootout” potential. Shootout is, of course, a relative term, as the betting total of 39 in this game leads the league but is dreadfully low by NFL standards.
Still, taking the quarterback from the heaviest passing team in the league, against the worst defense, and in the game with the highest total all makes sense. Sloter is a bit pricey given his past performances, but he hasn’t had a matchup this good yet.
He should also come in lower owned than Smith, making this a “pay up to be contrarian” spot. He trails only Smith in median and Pts/Sal projections on the slate.
Jordan Ta’Amu ($10,900) Tampa Bay Bandits (+3.5) vs. Birmingham Stallions
The slate’s most expensive quarterback has been a bit of a disappointment to start the season, ranking fifth in points per game despite preseason QB1 expectations. However, he has a dream situation against the Stallions this week. This game is tied for the highest total on the slate, and as slight underdogs, Tampa Bay should need to throw the ball throughout this one.
Ta’Amu also adds some rushing upside, with 82 yards and a touchdown across three games. Encouragingly, he’s seen his rushing attempts increase each game so far this season. If that trend continues, he could easily justify his salary. With Stallions’ games producing the most total points this season at an average of nearly 50 per game, this could be the time for Ta’Amu to break out.
He ranks third in both median and ceiling projections on the slate, though isn’t showing up as a good value. That could keep ownership down, making him an interesting GPP option.
Note: Bryan Scott of the stars is still listed in our models but was ruled out for Friday’s game against Michigan due to ankle issues.
USFL DFS Running Backs
