The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. Keep an eye on the weather in Pittsburgh this afternoon, as forecasts suggest rain in the area.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-200) vs. Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes jumps to the top of our model Sunday, with one of the highest Player Ratings on the slate. Burnes faces a Chicago Cubs lineup with a three-run implied total, which is the lowest of any team. A dominant starter, Burnes is continuing to prove he’s one of the top arms not only in the National League, but in all of the majors. Making four starts this season, Burnes has an 11.57 K/9, 32% K rate and a 0.74 WHIP and should likely make easy work of a projected Cubs lineup with a 0.252 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Per the Trends tool, Burnes has exceeded expectations in similar matchups. When the Brewers are a home Moneyline favorite of -200 or greater, Burnes averages 24.16 actual DraftKings points and has a +5.38 Plus/Minus.
Kevin Gausman ($9,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-155) vs. Houston Astros
While Burnes projects for the highest projected ownership on the slate, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman should also be a popular pick for an SP1 on DraftKings. In four starts, the Toronto right-hander has a 32.6% K rate and a 2.16 ERA, but he faces a tough match in a Houston Astros lineup with a 0.39 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Despite the matchup, Gausman is tagged for eight Pro Trends, benefits from the playing at home in the Rodgers Centre and has tremendous strikeout upside.
While the safety may not be there for Gausman compared to Burnes, he remains in the conversation to viability at the SP1 position.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jordan Hicks ($6,900) St. Louis Cardinals (-195) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
If looking for value and willing to take a risk, be sure to look toward St. Louis Cardinals fireballer Jordan Hicks. Despite setbacks with injuries recently, Hicks provides tremendous upside Sunday at a significant discount. Making two starts this season, Hicks has a 9.0 K/9, 3.00 ERA, and 25% K rate. The Diamondbacks are implied to score 3.2 runs Sunday, which puts them at one of the lowest totals on the slate, with a projected lineup averaging a 0.128 wOBA.
While the win upside is certainly there, proceed with caution if playing Hicks, as he might not have the longest leash, limiting his win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert ($9,400) Seattle Mariners (+102) at Miami Marlins
It seems Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert might be overlooked Sunday despite a favorable Player Rating in the Player Model. Gilbert has a favorable matchup against the Miami Marlins, playing in the pitcher-friendly confines of loanDepot Park with the Marlins posting an implied-run total of 3.7. Gilbert has had an extremely positive start to the beginning of the season, posting a 3-0 record in four starts, with a 0.40 ERA and a 25.9% K rate. The strikeout upside is there for Gilbert facing a projected Marlins lineup with a 0.272 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Taking Gilbert as a pivot might be the slate-breaking code needed, given the salary discount from Gausman and Burnes.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model , when generated by median projection, belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- Trevor Story (1) ($4,700)
- Rafael Devers (2) ($5,200)
- Xander Bogaerts (3) ($5,100)
- J.D. Martinez (4) ($4,200)
- Alex Verdugo (5) ($3,600)
The top of the Red Sox lineup is loaded with power and is implied for 3.9 runs against Baltimore Orioles arm Jordan Lyles, who in four starts has a 6.75 K/9, 16% K rate, and a 5.40 ERA — an ideal spot against a pitcher who does not limit damage.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but be prepared to spend up for this premium stack, which is priced at $22,800. Keep an eye on the lineup when released, as Boston scratched J.D. Martinez on Saturday. Martinez is expected to start and will likely hit cleanup.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels look to be in a prime spot against Chicago White Sox pitcher Dallas Keuchel, who is known for allowing contact, which should benefit the Angels’ power bats. In three starts, the veteran Keuchel has only pitched 10 innings, posting a 9.00 ERA and a 12.1% K rate. With an implied run total of 4.5 runs, Los Angeles should have no problem racking up the runs.
Interestingly, the stack is a “wrap-around” 8-1-2-3-4 configuration, with salary relief coming from Jo Adell at $3,400 on DraftKings. At almost half the salary cap, players who roster the Angels may need to look elsewhere at pitching, especially with the high price tags of the top of the order.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Brandon Lowe 2B ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins (Josh Winder)
Removing the Red Sox and Angels in search of possible one-off plays, Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has the highest Player Rating in our model. Lowe, who is batting leadoff, has a 0.325 wOBA differential against right-handed pitchers and a 0.303 ISO differential. Tampa Bay is implied for 4.5 runs against Twins pitcher Josh Winder, who makes his first start after spending the beginning of the season pitching from the bullpen. In three appearances this season, Winder has a 12.2% K rate and a 3.48 ERA. Despite the high $4,400 price tag on DraftKings, Lowe and the Rays have an ideal spot Sunday.
Christian Yelich OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (Marcus Stroman)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich should be in the conversation Saturday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Yelich should benefit from the hitter-friendly venue of American Family Field and has a 0.442 wOBA Differential against right-handed pitchers. Chicago Cubs pitcher Marcus Stroman should prove to be a challenge, however, while looking to turn around his season. After pitching 19.1 innings in four starts, Stroman has a 19.8% K rate and a. 6.98 ERA.
Milwaukee should certainly take advantage Sunday, with a healthy 4.2-implied-run total.
Carlos Santana 1B ($2,300 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees (Luis Severino)
When looking for value, Kansas City Royals first baseman Carlos Santana jumps to the top with the highest Plus/Minus. Santana is priced at $2,300, also posting one of the highest Bargain Ratings on the slate. Despite a low 3.4-implied-run total against Yankees pitcher Luis Severino, Santana comes with plenty of power, posting a 0.154 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers.
If looking to pay up for high-priced arms, or expensive stacks in the Angels, look for Santana to provide consistency and upside.
