Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Chris Sale, CWS
Despite producing an incomprehensible -20.69 Plus/Minus in his last start, Sale has only allowed an 187-foot batted-ball distance in the last two weeks. He’s also one of only two pitchers that’s limited batters to a hard-hit percentage less than 20 percent in that span. The Royals admittedly don’t strikeout at a high rate versus left-handed pitching, but their .290 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) remains among the bottom-feeders of the league. If anything, Sale’s 11.38 strikeouts per nine innings could force their hands.
Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
No pitcher in the Early slate has allowed a shorter batted-ball distance in the last 15 days than Eovaldi. Recall that note about only two pitchers having allowed a hard-hit percentage under 20 percent? Well, Eovaldi is coincidentally the other. His exit velocity allowed of late is also equivalent to Sale’s. Tampa Bay’s projected .325 wOBA is top-two this afternoon, but they’re still striking out in 26.1 percent of their at-bats against right-handers. That leaves Eovaldi with both a high ceiling and achievable floor, especially given his minuscule 0.59 home runs per nine innings allowed in the past year.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
I realize we were let down by every ace just last night, but Kershaw is confidently implied to allow 0.8 fewer runs than anyone else tonight. He’s also received 88 percent of moneyline bets despite having the highest actual moneyline (-195). The fact he’s limited opponents to a batted-ball distance 15 feet shorter in as many days is only a plus (and downright absurd). There are those that have ultimately allowed a shorter batted-ball distance recently, but none have as many Pro Trends as Kershaw. No one in that group can also claim that they’ve averaged 17.4 more DraftKings points than any other pitcher in the past month.
Pitchers to Exploit
Mike Pelfrey, DET
Pelfrey has masked his overall paltriness with a respectable 199-foot batted-ball distance lately. Still, I wouldn’t buy it given Oakland’s 4.8 implied total. Pelfrey’s WHIP is also the second highest tonight. He’s managed to work his average HR/9 down to 1.05, but right-handers are still averaging 2.28 against him this season. Note that those hitting the ball farthest in Oakland’s lineup are, coincidentally, right-handed.
Chris Rusin, COL
It’s bad enough that the Giants strike out in only 17.5 percent of their at-bats against left-handers. Now Rusin is expected to somehow pitch around their .325 projected wOBA. What’s worse is that only Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Michael Wacha have produced fewer DraftKings points than Rusin in the past month. Even with a $900 price decrease in that span, the fact he’s received only 10 percent of moneyline bets tells you all you need to know.
C
Stephen Vogt, OAK
Vogt has actually hit the ball 10 percent softer lately, but that doesn’t matter against Mike Pelfrey. What are important are Vogt’s .084 and .104 wOBA and ISO Differentials against right-handed pitching.
1B
Wil Myers, SD
Archie Bradley’s 215-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last year is tied for bottom-two today. His WHIP is also 0.40 higher than any other pitcher. I’d expect Brandon Belt or David Ortiz to be highly owned tonight, but Myers’ recent batted-ball distance is actually farther than both. Our Player Models also show him with a positive ISO Differential against lefties.
Freddie Freeman, ATL
The Braves as a whole haven’t shown much improvement, but Freeman has notably hit the ball eight percent harder in the last 15 days. His .512 slugging percentage is also top-10 among first basemen despite being buried in Atlanta’s lineup. It only helps that left-handed batters are slugging .454 against Tom Koehler.
2B
Ian Kinsler, DET
Rich Hill’s 10.63 SO/9 rate is concerning for opposing batters, but Kinsler is slugging .576 versus lefties. His .408 wOBA against said handedness also trails only Chase d’Arnaud among starting second basemen. Kinsler, however, is averaging a batted-ball distance 76 feet farther than d’Arnaud. His recent 95 MPH exit velocity is also the highest.
3B
Hernan Perez, MIL
Perez isn’t a suggestion solely because of the 13 MPH winds blowing out to left field. He’s also averaged a 219-foot batted-ball distance in his last eight starts, which is unheard of for someone who costs only $2,700. Furthermore, Brandon Finnegan’s 1.59 HR/9 rate is second only to Mike Clevinger for the most allowed tonight.
Jung-ho Kang, PIT
Kang has a rather poor -.057 wOBA Differential against lefties, but he’s still hitting the ball farther than anyone else in Pittsburgh. Just note his whopping 273-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. His 98 MPH exit velocity in that span trails only Matt Carpenter and Alex Rodriguez among starters.
SS
Jonathan Villar, MIL
Brandon Finnegan’s HR/9 rate has already been mentioned, but he’s also taken in only 37 percent of moneyline bets to date. As long as Villar leads off (and he’s expected to), you would think that his .118 ISO Differential has something to do with that total. His .566 slugging percentage against southpaws also trails only Aledmys Diaz, Manny Machado, and Trevor Story among shortstops.
OF
Adam Jones, BAL
Mike Clevinger’s 2.67 HR/9 rate hasn’t taken place over enough days to be ruled relevant, but his hard-hit percentage allowed in his first start was tied for bottom-three among pitchers. As long as Jones continues leading off, that ultimately makes his .091 ISO Differential relevant. And if it doesn’t, his 99-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel keeps him viable no matter.
Khris Davis, OAK
Davis’ 95 MPH exit velocity of late is respectable enough, but the stars have aligned beyond that. Just note his 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, which exists despite the fact that he’s facing Mike Pelfrey this afternoon. Davis’ nine Pro Trends are also tied with Hyun-Soo Kim for the most among outfielders.
Andrew McCutchen, PIT
McCutchen’s recent batted-ball distance is more average than not, but he’s still slugging .524 against left-handed pitchers. The Pirates are also implied to score the second-most runs today. Martin Perez’s 0.45 HR/9 rate allowed in the last year is certainly impressive, but note that McCutchen is still averaging a recent 40-percent hard-hit rate.
Weather Watch
None to worry about it. Bump it, clouds.
Good luck!
