The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Gio Urshela ($2,500): Third Baseman, Minnesota Twins
Gio Urshela has at least one hit in five of his last seven games for the Twins. He only has one game with double-digit DraftKings points, but we know he has power upside from his three seasons with the Yankees. Urshela is projected to back clean-up for the Twins tonight against the roller coaster that is Eduardo Rodriguez. Urshela has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is in a great lineup spot.
The Twins are only implied for 3.8 runs tonight as the weather likely won’t top 45 degrees in Minnesota yet again. In his first season with the Tigers, Rodriguez is off to a slow start. He has allowed eight earned runs in only 13.2 innings pitched. He has allowed a home run in back-to-back games as his strikeout percentage is the worst it has been in five-straight seasons. He doesn’t seem to be as good as he once was.
Urshela is an intriguing one-off contrarian play.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,400): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Can we trust Joey Gallo and his 40% strikeout percentage? It has been a rocky start for Gallo, to say the least. He has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league and has a career-low .021 ISO. However, he has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past two games. It won’t take much for that to happen as Gallo only has one hit in both games, but he is on the Yankees, who have a 4.9 implied run total.
When Gallo doesn’t strike out, he is still making hard contact and is pulling the ball 50% of the time against right-handed pitchers. He should be perfect for Yankee stadium and the short porch in right field, but he needs to make contact first.
Batting against right-hander Jordan Lyles will help. Lyles has had under a 20% strikeout rate for three-straight seasons. Gallo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel tonight. Also, keep an eye on the weather for this game.
It seems to be a little dicey on the east coast this evening.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($10,100 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
In a pricing tier of his own, Carlos Rodon has the highest median and ceiling projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. He has been incredible in his three starts this season. Rodon has a ridiculous 44.6% strikeout percentage and a 0.82 WHIP. He has only allowed two runs in 17 innings pitched and has averaged 30.4 DraftKings points per game. He is the best option at pitcher on the slate.
Rodon’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics is fantastic. The Athletics have a .167 wOBA as they have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage in the league. They are also only implied for 2.5 runs, which is the lowest on the slate by far. Rodon will likely carry the most ownership at the pitcher position, and it won’t be close at all.
He is pitching too well, and this matchup is too good to get away from Rodon tonight.
Hitter
Mike Trout ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Deciding between Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani is a difficult task as the Angels are implied for 4.3 runs against right-hander Triston McKenzie. Going with Trout because he seems to have the hotter bat at this moment. Trout is the most expensive batter on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has had at least one hit in each of his last eight games. He only has played two games without a hit all season.
Trout has averaged over double-digit DraftKings points this season, showing how consistent he can be at the plate. Many may look to Byron Buxton, who has back-to-back games with over 30 DraftKings points, but I’ll side with the consistency that Trout brings to the table. McKenzie has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard so far this season but has allowed a career-high 34.6% hard-hit rate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
After a hiccup in their first series of the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling. They have won 11 of their last 13 games and lead the league with a 12-4 record.
The Dodgers are tied with the New York Mets for the league lead in runs, despite playing two fewer games. They have a 5.7 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate.
This stack is the highest projection in THE BAT but is the ninth cheapest Dodgers stack. Adding Cody Bellinger provides a great salary savings without losing upside.
Speaking of Bellinger, he could have easily been the bargain option on DraftKings. He leads the Dodgers in home runs with four as he hit two home runs just two games ago. He is projected to bat seventh but has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites in this Dodgers lineup.
Mookie Betts is off to a bit of a slow start as he has a career-low ISO and a career-high strikeout percentage through 15 games. However, Betts still has the highest ceiling in not only THE BAT but also our in-house projections. It is only a matter of time until he gets in a groove.
Freddie Freeman got off to a slow start as well but is now leading the Dodgers in his first year with the team in hits, slugging percentage, and batting average while posting above a .200 ISO for the fourth-straight season. “Free-Money” Freddie is as consistent as they come.
Trea Turner has been an RBI machine as he ranks fifth in the league and first on the team with 15 RBI this season. Batting behind Betts and Freeman has been perfect for Turner. He is also tied for the team league with three steals as he swiped 32 bags last season. He can produce in multiple ways.
Batting clean-up is Max Muncy, who has a below .300 wOBA for the first time since he joined the Dodgers in 2018. Unlike many left-handed batters, Muncy also does better against left-handed pitchers. His projection is still higher than Betts, so he is tough to ignore in this Dodgers stack.
Right-hander Zach Davies is the worst-rated pitcher in both THE BAT and our in-house projections. He has struggled to start the year despite receiving one of the Diamondbacks’ six wins in his most recent outing. He is allowing a 1.88 HR/9 and has yet to throw more than 82 pitches in a start this season. The Dodgers’ projected lineup has a .324 wOBA, while it is going to be above 90 degrees in Arizona.
