The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features six games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-205) vs. San Francisco Giants
There’s no shortage of top-shelf pitching options on Monday’s slate. While we’ll cover most of those options shortly, Burnes stands out as the best overall option. Vegas data provides the most convincing argument: not only are the Brewers the slate’s heaviest favorites, but San Francisco has the lowest implied total.
Burnes’ recent form is another reason to go back to the well with him today. Over his last two starts (14 innings total), he’s allowed just two runs and eight walks + hits. Along the way, he managed to strike out a ridiculous 18 batters. All of his advanced metrics dating back to the start of 2021 lead the slate as well, including SIERA, swinging strike rate, strikeout rate, and hard contact percentage.
Additionally, the matchup with San Francisco is arguably the most favorable among the top pitching options. The Giants have been an average offense to start the season, but the other studs have tougher draws. Burnes leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling, while narrowly trailing Max Scherzer‘s in THE BAT.
Max Scherzer ($9,300) New York Mets (-150) at St. Louis Cardinals
The ageless Scherzer ranks just behind Burnes in most relevant pitching metrics, with little between them. The appeal to Scherzer today is his price. At $9,300, it’s the cheapest he’s been all year and nearly a full thousand dollars below Burnes’ price tag.
That makes him a strong option, despite the somewhat more difficult matchup with the Cardinals. However, the Red Birds are implied for only 0.3 more runs than the Giants, so it’s not much of a step down from Burnes. Through three starts, Scherzer has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every outing and topped 30 in his most recent appearance.
Thanks to his salary, Scherzer is the slightly better Pts/Sal option in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems. While I’d like to get to Burnes today, I’m more than happy to pivot to Mad Max if I can use the $900 in salary to improve my hitters.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Berrios ($5,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-125) vs. Boston Red Sox
Berrios has been all over the place this season. His first start of the year was a disaster, allowing four runs and recording only a single out. He then had a disappointing second appearance against the Yankees before posting a strong showing against these Red Sox last time around.
Interestingly enough, his salary was a much higher $7,300 heading into his last start against the same team. Given his success in that outing, we’d expect to see that number go up this time — it’s not like the matchup is any different. If anything, this game being in Toronto instead of Boston makes it a slightly better situation for Berrios.
Based on his career and last season’s numbers, his previous start is far more indicative of his true ability than his earlier starts. There’s been an element of bad luck this year too — his .378 BABIP allowed is nearly 100 points higher than his career mark.
Berrios was a solid value at $7,300 in his last start. At $5,500, he’s an absolute steal. Boston is implied for under four runs today, making his salary even more of an outlier. He leads the FantasyLabs projections in Projected Plus/Minus and should be a popular choice for cash games and GPPs alike.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shane Bieber ($9,600) Cleveland Guardians (-111) at Los Angeles Angels
While there are legitimate doubts over whether Bieber can ever regain his 2020 Cy Young form, he’s still an elite pitcher. He ranks slightly behind only Burnes and Scherzer in SIERA and strikeout rate since the start of 2021 and seems to be getting better with each outing in 2022. His last start saw him pitch seven scoreless innings, striking out seven along the way.
Bieber’s statcast data is somewhat concerning, though. His average fastball velocity has dipped below 92 MPH, the lowest mark of his career. It could simply be that he’s working his way back to full strength after an injury-shortened 2021 and an abbreviated spring training in 2022. Or perhaps the MLB’s crackdown on “sticky stuff” hit Bieber particularly hard. His velocity was down last season as well, and his injury came shortly after the enforcement began taking place.
Regardless, his ownership projects to be lower than Burnes and Scherzer, and he’s the only other pitcher with a ceiling projection in the same realm. That makes him a good tournament play today, as most of the field will settle around Berrios and one of Burnes or Scherzer.
Bieber also leads the slate in FantasyLabs K prediction at 8.54. While the Angels have a powerful lineup, they rank top-10 in team strikeout rate on the season. That makes Bieber a high-variance option that’s probably best avoided in cash games.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (1) ($4,900)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($5,300)
- Trea Turner (3) ($5,500)
- Max Muncy (4) ($5,100)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,200)
As usual, the Dodgers are one of the slate’s top options. This is an especially good day to stack them, though. They’re playing on the road, so nine guaranteed innings is a bonus. They’re also on the road in Arizona — a hitter-friendly park with the best Weather Rating for hitters of any stadium in play on Monday.
The Dodgers are implied for a slate-best 5.3 runs against the Diamondbacks Merril Kelly ($7,200). While Kelly isn’t an especially easy matchup, he’s not a pitcher to be avoided either. His SIERA is north of four, and he limits neither fly balls nor hard contact particularly well.
This Dodgers lineup also feasts on right-handed pitching, with a team wOBA over .350 on the season against conventional hurlers. In an interest to be more unique with your stacks, left-handers Cody Bellinger ($3,200) and Gavin Lux ($3,200) could both be swapped in as well.
Bellinger is off to a particularly hot start this season, with four home runs and three steals while batting .273. Despite that, batting from the seven spot should keep ownership reasonable, despite his bargain salary. Regardless of which permutation fits your lineup best, it would be hard to go wrong with the Dodgers today.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by Projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Combining a top projection system like THE BAT with FantasyLabs’ proprietary Plus/Minus system is a cash game player’s dream. Plus/Minus score measures how well a player is projected to do relative to his salary-implied points. A positive Plus/Minus means projections expect that player to provide more value than his salary expects him to.
This unorthodox Red Sox stack stands out in that regard. While I was tempted to fiddle with the settings to get a more traditional stack, this one has some appeal in its own right. First, the salary on the down-lineup hitters is exceedingly cheap. If you’re trying to build a lineup with two of the expensive pitching options, that will come in handy today.
Secondly, loading up on left-handed bats against Toronto’s Jose Berrios makes sense. Berrios has been lights-out against right-handed hitting, limiting them to a .250 wOBA. However, he struggles against hitters from the other side of the plate. Left-handed hitters have a .351 wOBA against Berrios.
Additionally, Berrios is expected to be one of the slate’s more popular pitching options. Stacking a team against him is a perfect way to create massive leverage while using the salary savings to get more expensive pitchers — thus eliminating the need to play Berrios yourself.
Boston is implied for just under four runs, so I wouldn’t use this entire stack for cash games. However, picking and choosing a few pieces in cash games — or running the full stack in GPPs — is a very interesting strategy.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Andrew McCutchen OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel): Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants (Sam Long)
As always, cheap leadoff hitters are going to be good DFS plays. That’s McCutchen today, as he’s the most inexpensive batter expected to lead off any team’s lineup. The pitching matchup gives him further appeal. Sammy Long of the Giants is a left-hander, and McCutchen has historically done well against southpaws. He has a 30-point boost to his average and an additional 100 points to his slugging percentage in his career when he has the platoon advantage.
Long, for his part, allows a wOBA over .340 to right-handed bats. He also has one of the highest SIERAs on the slate, and the Brewers have a solid 4.2 run implied total.
Michael Brantley OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel): Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
Brantley had himself a great weekend. Brantley racked up six hits in the Astros three-game series against the Blue Jays, including a double and a home run. He’ll look to keep that momentum going against the Rangers and starting pitcher Dane Dunning.
Dunning is a mediocre pitcher from a matchup perspective, but certainly not one to avoid. With Brantley’s cheap salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s worth a shot today. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where he holds a 64% Bargain Rating and is slightly cheaper than McCutchen.
Zack Collins C ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel): Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox (Nathan Eovaldi)
It’s not a great day for catchers, with most of the top options either prohibitively expensive (JT Realmuto) or facing tough pitching matchups (Mitch Garver). However, Collins is a solid mix of value and expected production.
He’s projected to bat cleanup for the Blue Jays, who are implied for a healthy 4.1 run total against Boston’s Nate Eovaldi. We can probably skip him (and catchers in general) on FanDuel, but I’ll be playing a lot of him on DraftKings.
