The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:10 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of baseball action.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,400) New York Yankees (-215) vs. Cleveland Guardians
After a disastrous 1.2-inning outing in his last start in which he allowed two runs on one hit, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole looks to turn things around Sunday against the Cleveland Guardians. The highest-priced pitcher on the slate, Cole might cause a little bit of concern given his recent form. In three starts this season, he has only pitched 11.1 innings, allowing eight earned runs and striking out just 12 batters. Cleveland has the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.9 runs, and the weather in the Bronx looks to favor pitchers, having the best Weather Rating in our Tournament Model. Cole is also projected for the most strikeouts on the slate at 7.65
Per the Trends tool, Cole has outperformed expectations in similar situations. When greater than a -215 Moneyline favorite at home, Cole has averaged 28.83 actual DraftKings points, with a +8.72 Plus/Minus. While historically Cole has been a no-brainer SP1, let’s hope the big-name arm can turn things around.
Logan Webb ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-160) at Washington Nationals
After a dominating second start against the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb had a rocky start against the Mets, giving up three runs in 3.2 innings to earn the loss. Like Cole, Webb has a chance to turn things around against the Washington Nationals on Sunday. Strikeouts should be plentiful for Webb, who faces a projected Nationals lineup with a 0.294 strikeout-per-at-bat average. A price tag of $10,000 on DraftKings might come as a surprise, but so far this season, Webb has a 5.60 K/9, 2.55 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP — a trend that should continue Sunday. The Giants’ bats square off against Joan Adon, who has put up less-than-stellar numbers, giving Webb plenty of opportunity for run support.
It looks like a big decision is in store on which high-priced arm is more likely to produce a slate-breaking outcome.
MLB DFS Value Picks
JT Brubaker ($5,500) Pittsburgh Pirates (+134) at Chicago Cubs
After an embarrassing 21-0 loss Saturday afternoon, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher JT Brubaker takes the mound in a tough matchup in a Wrigley weather game, but he has the highest Plus/Minus among pitchers Sunday. Most of Brubaker’s upside comes from his projected strikeouts, where he is projected for the third-most at 5.56.
It might not be the most locked-in play, but Brubaker can certainly become fantasy relevant due to his $5,500 price tag on DraftKings, which would be paid off after a few strikeouts, even with the Cubs posting a slate-high 5.4-run total.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Adam Wainwright ($9,600) St. Louis Cardinals (-147) at Cincinnati Reds
With Cole and Webb likely the first landing spot at SP1, St. Louis Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright might be overlooked. Wainwright is projected for half the ownership of Webb and Cole and faces a struggling Cincinnati Reds team that has the second-lowest wOBA among projected lineups Sunday at .196. Wainwright is projected for 5.22 strikeouts and does not have an ideal ballpark in Great American, which is known for its hitter-friendly confines.
Personally, I’ll take consistency in Wainwright over what appears to be a more volatile profile in Webb and Cole.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model , when generated by median projection, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Matt Olson (2) ($4,300)
- Ozzie Albies (1) ($5,000)
- Adam Duvall (4) ($2,400)
- Marcel Ozuna (3) ($3,300)
- Eddie Rosario (5) ($2,400)
The Braves have a respectable 4.6-implied run total and the top of the projected order comes with plenty of power, with a projected .287 wOBA. Anchored by Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson, the lineup is projected to face Jesus Luzardo, who has had a rough start to the beginning of the season, throwing just nine innings in two starts with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and at a little over $17,000, the upside is affordable, especially with Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario projected to round out the stack at $4,800 on DraftKings
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
Even with what looks to be a weather game at Wrigley with the Cubs holding on the highest implied-run total on the slate, the Cardinals have the power and a great venue to produce runs in Great American Ballpark. The power bats of St. Louis are projected to face off against rookie pitcher Nick Lodolo, who in two starts has an ERA of 8.00 and a 2.00 WHIP. Traditionally a hitters’ park, Great American is not forgiving to pitchers and the Cardinals should take full advantage — the projected lineup has a wOBA of .292.
Be prepared to spend up at more than $23,000 on DraftKings. Instead of the traditional 1-2-3-4-5 stack, I’ve opted to replace the projected five hitter Corey Dickerson with Tommy Edman, a switch hitter with a positive wOBA against lefties.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mike Yastrzemski OF ($4,000 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at Washington National (Joan Adon)
Removing the Cardinals and Braves in search of possible one-off plays, San Francisco Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski jumps to the top as the highest-rated player in our Tournament Model. Projected to hit leadoff, Yastrzemski and the Giants are slated to face Joan Adon, who in three starts has an ERA of 5.87 and a 1.63 WHIP. With a high implied total of 4.8 runs, the Giants’ bats should take advantage of a pitcher who allows contact, especially with a the projected lineup posting a wOBA of .321.
Jose Ramirez OF ($5,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling. Ramirez comes stocked with power, as he’s projected to hit cleanup for the Guardians and benefits from the ideal Park Factor Rating of Yankee Stadium.
With a low 2.9-implied-run total and facing Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, Ramirez is a boom-or-bust play, but he can certainly send the ball over the fence against the struggling Cole.
