The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Ian Anderson ($9,600) Atlanta Braves (-166) vs. Miami Marlins
I’ll be honest, this slate leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pitching. For an SP1 on DraftKings, Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ian Anderson stands out among the field. With a palatable $9,600 price tag, Anderson can easily become fantasy relevant, as he is projected for the most strikeouts (5.85) and faces a Marlins lineup with a 3.6 implied run total and the second-highest strikeout-per-at-bat average at 0.280. While Anderson may not rate as the highest in our Tournament Models, it seems he might be a safe option.
Last season in 24 starts, Anderson posted a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA, 23% K rate and a 1.23 WHIP and is likely to repeat his dominance this season, having a 22% rate after two starts.
Noah Syndergaard ($8,600) Los Angeles Angels (-250) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Los Angeles Angels have a prime matchup against the Baltimore Orioles Saturday, and Noah Syndergaard projects as a top option at SP1. Coming in as a massive -250 favorite, Thor benefits from the highest Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and an ideal Park Factor Rating for pitchers. Baltimore has the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.4 runs and might have issues with the dominance of Syndergaard, who in two starts has a 1.59 ERA, 11.6% K rate and a 0.79 WHIP. While the K rate might not be appetizing, Syndergaard should easily mow down the projected Orioles lineup, projected for 5.64 strikeouts.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kris Bubic ($7,000) Kansas City Royals (+132) at Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic looks to be a top value on Saturday’s slate, having the highest Projected Plus/Minus among pitchers. Priced at $7,000 on DraftKings, Bubic benefits from a longer leash, likely seeing more than 90 pitches and projected for 4.51 strikeouts. While not the best choice, facing a projected Mariners lineup with a 4.2 implied run total, the venue is ideal for pitchers, with the weather in Seattle rating as the most pitcher-friendly today.
Bubic should be considered as an SP2 option, but be careful — last season, Bubic posted a 6-7 record with a 4.43 ERA and a 20.5% K rate, and in two starts this season has an ERA over 10.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Matt Brash ($9,000) Seattle Mariners (-155) vs. Kansas City Royals
When sorting by ceiling projection in our Player Models,Seattle Mariners pitcher Matt Brash jumps to the top, also taking the top spot as the highest-rated pitcher in the Tournament Model. While not a brand-name arm, the rookie has a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA, 26.2% K rate and a 1.22 WHIP.
Like Bubic, Brash benefits from the pitcher-friendly weather in Seattle, and a low implied run total from the Royals (3.5). The price tag is a little high, but Brash should make easy work from a Royals lineup with a .238 strikeout-per-at-bat-average.
Per the Trends tools, home starting pitchers above $9,000 who are favored average 20.28 actual DraftKings points and have a +1.77 Plus/Minus. While not the sneakiest of picks, Brash should have a good outing Saturday.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by median projection belongs to the New York Mets:
- Pete Alonso (4) ($5,100)
- Eduardo Escobar (5) ($4,900)
- Francisco Lindor (3) ($3,000)
- Brandon Nimmo (1 ($4,300)
- Starling Marte (2) ($5,900)
The Mets have a prime matchup against Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Humberto Castellanos, who has shown a propensity for blow-up games, posting a 2-2 record in 14 starts last season, with a 4.93 ERA and a 23.5% K rate.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and this Mets stack comes with plenty of power, with an average 0.248 wOBA and a 0.222 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Playing at Chase Field comes with benefits, as the most batter-friendly Park Factor Rating — the runs should be in bulk for the Mets Saturday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
With the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.3 runs, this Angles lineup should keep the runs coming facing Spenser Watkins, who last season posted an 8.07 ERA in 16 starts. The top of the Angels’ order looks appealing, with Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon highlighting this projected 1-2-3-4-5 stack. Be ready to pay up, with this lineup costing you more than half of the DraftKings salary. Without top-name arms on the slate, paying up for bats might be the way to go.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Matt Olson 1B ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Elieser Hernandez)
In looking for value on the slate and taking out the Mets and Angels bats, Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is the highest Player Ratings in our Tournament Model. Tagged for six Pro Trends, including a respectable 4.6-implied-run total for the Braves against Elieser Hernandez.
Olson is projected to bat second, between Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, which should be a prime location for the newcomer to Atlanta. It is an expensive price tag for Olson, but nonetheless should be considered, even as a one-off play.
Cedric Mullins OF ($4,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (Noah Syndergaard)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins should be in the conversation Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling. This play might be the most appealing, but Baltimore has been known to be slate-breakers.
Mullins is projected to bat leadoff, starting an Orioles lineup featuring Anthony Santander and JTrey Mancini, an ideal spot for an 85th-percentile outcome. With extremely low ownership, Mullins also looks to be an attractive GPP play.
Adam Duvall OF ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Elieser Hernandez)
Although he is batting seventh, Adam Duvall comes in as the top value play Saturday as part of a high-powered Atlanta Braves lineup. Like Olson, Duvall looks to be in a prime matchup facing Elieser Hernandez and with a high 4.6-run implied total,
Duvall should fit in the conversation, despite a less-than-ideal position in the lineup. With a $2,400 pricetag on DraftKings, Duvall might be the salary relief needed to fit in the Angels’ bats.
