The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s main slate features seven games starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Dylan Cease ($10,100) Chicago White Sox (-140) at Cleveland Guardians
Cease is the safest pitching choice today, as one of the best pitchers on the slate while also having a solid matchup. The opposing Guardians are implied for only 3.8 runs against him. His advanced metrics are solid, with a 3.5 SIERA and slate-leading strikeout rate.
He’s also been tremendous so far this season, with consecutive 26+ point outings on DraftKings. Those came against the Tigers and the Rays — also softer matchups — but it’s hard to argue that the Guardians have a significantly better lineup than either of those teams.
Cease is expected to garner the highest ownership on the slate. However, there are seven pitchers above $8,000 on DraftKings, so even if Cease is the most popular, he shouldn’t be mega-chalk. Still, He’s a better play for cash games. His swinging-strike rate suggests a minor regression to his strikeout numbers, and there are solid options who should be less popular.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jordan Montgomery ($6,900) New York Yankees (-175) at Detroit Tigers
Montgomery is taking on a scuffling Tigers offense today in Detroit as a solid favorite. The Tigers have scored only 12 runs in their last five games, as a combination of injuries to key hitters and struggling bats holds back their lineup. The lone bright spot for Detroit has been Miguel Cabrera, who sits at 2,999 career hits heading into this one. I’m sure Montgomery would love to avoid being on the 3,000th hit highlight tape for all eternity.
Regardless, Montgomery is a solid pitcher, in a great matchup, at a reasonable price. He trails only Kevin Gausman in our median projections while coming in $2,000 cheaper. That obviously makes him the clear leader in Pts/Sal, so he’ll be a very popular cash game pick.
He has some tournament appeal, too, especially if he can live up to his 6.15 K prediction in our models.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kevin Gausman ($8,900) Toronto Blue Jays (-120) at Boston Red Sox
Gausman is the leader in median and ceiling projections in our models, despite coming in as only the fourth-most expensive pitcher. He leads the slate in SIERA and swinging-strike rate, though he has a relatively difficult matchup with the Red Sox. Boston has a relatively high 4.5-run Vegas total. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean bettors think those runs will come off of Gausman as opposed to the Blue Jays bullpen.
Still, it’s a difficult position where we’re forced to choose between better pitchers or a better matchup. All of the other pitchers at $8,600 or above have implied opponent totals of four or less. However, Gausman leads the group in strikeout prediction in our models.
I tend to fall on the side of good pitching, beating good hitting, so I’ll be on the side of Gausman today. With the DraftKings scoring system, a strikeout is worth more points than a run costs, so even if Gausman surrenders a run or two, he should be able to make it back with strikeouts. This game also has the best Weather Rating for pitchers on the slate, so a lower-than-expected run total isn’t out of the question.
We also have Gausman outside of the top five in pitcher Ownership on the slate, furthering his case as a GPP play. While I’m not shying away from him in cash games wither, he’s an ideal tournament candidate.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,800) New York Mets (-125) vs. San Francisco Giants
After a rough first season in New York that saw him with an ERA over six, Carrasco seems to be back to his old self this season. He’s been spectacular through two starts, striking out 13 in less than 11 innings of work while allowing only one earned run.
The Giants also have the lowest implied total on the slate, which is another good sign for Carrasco. It’s a bit scary to bet on a 35-year-old pitcher whose career had been trending in the wrong direction. Still, he appears to be on the right track, with numbers similar to his 2020 campaign that saw him finish with an ERA below three and a strikeout rate north of 30%
He won’t fly totally under the radar here, but another solid start means he’ll be even more expensive (and chalky) the next time out.
Now would be a good time to get in on Carrasco before either of those things happen.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- Cesar Hernandez (1) ($3,400)
- Juan Soto (2) ($5,800)
- Nelson Cruz (3) ($4,400)
- Josh Bell (4) ($4,400)
- Yadiel Hernandez (6) ($2,800)
Washington trails only the Yankees in implied runs on today’s slate at 4.8, as they take on Zach Davies of the Diamondbacks. The Nats’ status as the top stack is based as much on Davies as anything though. He’s been bad over the past year-plus, with a SIERA over 5 and a double-digit walk rate since the start of 2021.
Both left and right-handed hitters have posted wOBAs over .350 against him, making all of the Nationals bats in play here. The Nationals are also expected to come at a moderate ownership discount compared to the Yankees, but it’s a near coin-flip who ends up scoring more runs. That makes Nationals stacks the plus-EV play for tournaments here.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by Projected Plus/Minus, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks’ bats are just far too cheap for a road team with a solid 4.4 run total. Particularly given the pitching matchup against them. Washington’s Josh Rogers has some of the worst secondary metrics on the slate, with the highest SIERA and near-worst ground ball rate.
His SIERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA, meaning he’s been incredibly lucky so far. That luck is bound to run out eventually, with today as good a time as any. Rogers throws left-handed and has actually been very solid against left-handed bats while struggling against righties. Given that, expect the Diamondbacks lineup to look slightly different than the one we have currently projected — which would mean even more salary savings.
Diamondbacks bats are expected to be popular today, but full stacks — especially non-traditional ones — could still fly under the radar. They’re also a solid option for cash games since they allow you to access other expensive hitters.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Carson Kelly C ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (Josh Rogers)
While we already covered the Diamondbacks stacks, Kelly deserves some special attention here. He has ridiculous lefty/righty splits throughout his career, with a big edge against southpaws. Compared to his numbers against righties, Kelly’s average is more than 80 points higher, with an OPS 280 points higher.
Those are downright ridiculous numbers. He’s also a catcher expected to bat in the top third of his team’s order with that team on the road. That alone makes him a value at only $3,500 on DraftKings.
While nobody is a “must play” in MLB DFS, Kelly is pretty close today.
Aaron Hicks OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (Michael Pineda)
The Yankees are taking on Detroit’s Michael Pineda in the first start of the year for Pineda. There are a couple of things to like about that. First, Pineda could be rusty, with a higher-than-usual chance of having a bad start. His numbers last year were solidly average, but a late start to training camp means he won’t be up to 100%.
More importantly, Pineda isn’t likely to last long regardless of his success levels. That means more at-bats against an overtaxed Tigers bullpen. Detroit relievers have worked 11 innings over the past two days against the Yankees.
With Hicks as a $3,400 leadoff hitter for a road team, he’s a solid value regardless of matchup. The matchup is a good one, though, with the Yankees implied for a slate-leading 4.9 runs.
Bobby Witt Jr. 3B ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
Witt is still too cheap for a top-of-the-order hitter on DraftKings. He has a 95% Bargain Rating there. He leads his position in Pts/Sal projection today. His Royals are taking on Joe Ryan of the Twins. Ryan has solid numbers but does struggle to force ground balls. That isn’t super helpful for the soft-hitting Witt, but it’s certainly not a matchup we need to avoid. Witt isn’t an exciting play but is a reasonable salary-saver in your lineups.
