The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Tommy Pham ($2,000): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Pham is having a horrendous start to the season for the Reds with just one hit in 31 plate appearances. His $1,000 DraftKings salary drop has reflected the struggles. Could he now be in bargain territory?
Though he may never get back to peak 2017 form, Pham posted a league-average .318 wOBA last season with a career-best 13.9 BB%. The walks have continued at an even higher pace this season, without much help from his bat.
With his salary drop, he is a top bargain play for tournament lineups today against Sean Manaea and the Padres.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Brandon Crawford ($2,700): Shortstop, San Francisco Giants
The veteran Giants’ shortstop is coming off his best season at the plate in 2021. He finished fourth in MVP voting, posting new career highs with a .298 batting average, 24 home runs, and a .377 wOBA.
After a disappointing first two series this season, he posted two positive Plus/Minus games against the Guardians over the weekend.
Crawford has lit up right-handed pitching over his career with a .434 wOBA. He will face Mets’ right-hander Tylor Megill, who has impressed so far this season with two scoreless starts. Crawford may be worth the dart throw as a low-ownership bargain play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Frankie Montas ($7,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
With plenty of high-priced starting pitchers on the slate, Montas has a great mix of value and ceiling potential against Baltimore.
Montas made an American League-high 32 starts in 2021 and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. His career stats don’t jump off the page, but he comes off a stellar outing against Tampa Bay last week, allowing just a solo home run on the scoreboard.
The Orioles have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate after a cross-country flight with no rest day. They have scored more than two runs just three times in their first nine games.
Hitter
Bryce Harper ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The reigning National League MVP is finding his stride in 2022 with three 20-plus point DraftKings performances over his last five games. His boom potential gives him the highest ceiling on the slate at the ballpark with the highest elevation.
Harper continues to prove each season that he has one of the most powerful bats in the league. He has a max EV in the top-4% of the league each of the last five seasons, according to Baseball Savant.
Chad Kuhl gets the nod on the mound for the Rockies. He kept the ball inside the park against the Rangers in his only start this season but has consistently been near the bottom of the league in xwOBA and max EV throughout his career. Harper may be worth the top-end price tag in this spot.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Philadelphia Phillies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
With the highest implied run total on the slate by a sizable margin, the Phillies look ready for an offensive onslaught in the thin air of Colorado. This stack features five of the highest DraftKings ceiling projections on the slate.
Bryce Harper is finding his MVP form and traditionally excels against right-handed pitching. He batted .333 against right-handers in 2021, compared to .257 against lefties.
Nick Castellanos hasn’t shown the same boom potential as Harper this season but has hit safely in seven straight games. A Silver Slugger winner in 2021, he has an impressive .438 wOBA thus far in his first season with the Phillies.
This highest-priced catcher on the slate, J.T. Realmuto may be the most difficult to fit into lineups. He has produced just two positive Plus/Minus games and two total RBI this season.
Outfielder Kyle Schwarber and first baseman Rhys Hoskins round out the lineup stack. Their salaries are elevated for this matchup from recent games. Both have shown some promise in spots this season and have the potential for breakout performances.
The Phillies will face Chad Kuhl on the mound for Colorado. The 29-year-old right-hander has a career 4.42 ERA and gave up 13 home runs in 80.1 innings last season.
