Thanks to the return of the USFL, we have professional football far earlier than expected this year.
DraftKings has stepped up to offer a four-game slate with serious prize pools, including a $100,000 to first contest. Fortunately, FantasyLabs has you covered. We have USFL Models ready to go, preloaded with projections from “The Oddsmaker” Sean Koerner.
Before we dig into the breakdown, a quick note on player projections. They should be treated as a rough overview only with a new league like USFL. Much of the inputs into projections are based on betting lines, which tend to be far less efficient in new situations like this.
Additionally, player usage is near-impossible to predict accurately. While draft capital is a good starting point, we have situations like the generals demoting their first RB selected (Mike Weber) to the practice squad:
Roster updates 👇 pic.twitter.com/lJTnuGPZ2h
— New Jersey Generals (@USFLGenerals) April 15, 2022
Keeping up to date on the latest news will be crucial, as we likely have some more surprises between the first kickoff Saturday evening and the start of the last game.
Additionally, lineup construction will be different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback and running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. (It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.)
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. (Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.)
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
Jordan Ta’Amu ($10,400): Tampa Bay Bandits (-4) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
Ta’Amu was the second overall pick in the USFL draft, coming in behind only Shea Patterson of the Michigan Panthers. (USFL teams could only draft quarterbacks in Round 1.) Ta’Amu is projecting as the better DFS option for Week 1 of the USFL season though.
Ta’Amu was a standout in the last spring professional football league, the XFL. That makes him the de-facto most decorated signal-caller in the league heading into the season. His Bandits are the odds-on favorite to capture the USFL crown at +450. They also have the best moneyline odds of Week 1 as -200 favorites as of Friday night.
Ta’Amu stands out for DFS purposes thanks to his dual-threat ability. He averaged over 40 rushing yards per game in the XFL, adding one touchdown in five contests. As a thrower, he had a fairly low yards per attempt (YPA) mark but was highly efficient. His 72.4% completion rate led the league by a wide margin.
That meshes well with Bandits head coach Todd Haley. Haley was the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers from 2012-2017, directing the offense that featured short passes to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell as their primary method of attack.
That does cap Ta’Amu’s upside, though. He’ll probably need to pick up points on the ground to have a big score. He’s also likely to be the heaviest owned quarterback. That’s reason to fade him in GPPs for me, as the field is likely to drastically overrate projections and name value when building lineups.
Given how uncertain we are about everything USFL, eating a lot of chalk doesn’t make much sense. Still, he’s a fine cash game play.
(If you’re enough of a sicko to play USFL cash games, that is.)
Tournament Picks
Kyle Sloter ($10,000): New Orleans Breakers (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Stars
Sloter and the Breakers trail only Tampa Bay in odds to win the championship and have the highest projected team total on the slate. That means less in the USFL than it does in more established leagues, but it’s still worth considering where oddsmakers (and sharp money) think points will come from this week.
Sloter probably has the best professional football pedigree of any USFL quarterback, having legitimate preseason success in the NFL. He also ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, so there’s certainly rushing upside from him as well.
Sloter trails only Ta’Amu in both median and ceiling projection, with not much between them. While projecting ownership is mission impossible for Week 1, my preference for tournaments is whichever of the two we think comes in as the less popular option.
Shea Patterson ($10,500) Michigan Panthers (-2.5) vs. Houston Gamblers
Patterson is a pay-up-to-be-contrarian option as the slate’s most expensive quarterback. He was also the league’s first overall pick, so there could be something there. Patterson is best known for his time at the University of Michigan before spending time with the Kansas City Chiefs in the preseason and the CFL.
Patterson has underrated rushing ability, with a 4.71 40-yard dash time that could make him the better dual-threat option than Ta’Amu. There are concerns about his usage, with backup quarterback Paxton Lynch ($8,800) having the potential to play a Taysom Hill-esque role. The 6’7″ 244-pound Lynch stealing a goal-line touchdown would be brutal for Patterson backers.
The coaching staff is also a concern, with Jeff Fischer leading the charge. The former NFL coach was known for his old-school football mentality and will probably lean heavily on the running game. Whether that includes designed runs for Patterson or not is the real question, but he’s worth a flier in a lineup or two.
