The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Owen Miller ($2,000): First Baseman/Second Baseman, Cleveland Guardians
Miller got his first major league call-up last season and struggled to get his footing at the plate, batting .204 with a .241 wOBA in 60 games. This year, an early-season hot streak has him feeling right at home with the Guardians.
The surprise league leader in SLG and OPS+ through Thursdays games is batting .524 with a .677 wOBA, including four-straight multi-hit games and a 31-point DraftKings performance on Wednesday against the Reds.
Despite a difficult matchup against San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon today, Miller’s salary will have many licking their lips for a contrarian bargain play.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Corey Seager ($3,100): Shortstop, Texas Rangers
Texas has been good to Seager thus far after seven seasons with the Dodgers. Through six games, Seager is batting .346 with a .395 wOBA.
In his career, Seager has excelled against left-handed pitching. Today, he faces left-hander Reid Detmers who gave up a 63.6% hard-hit rate in his season debut.
Seager has the 10th highest FanDuel salary at shortstop, and the third-highest projected points on the slate. Combined with the Rangers and Angels having the second-highest projected run total on the slate, this could be a smart lineup pick today.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($10,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The 26-year-old righty had a stellar 2021 with xERA, K%, and xwOBA numbers all in the top 5% of the league, according to Baseball Savant.
Peralta was tagged for three earned runs in four innings of work in his season debut. He looks to rebound tonight against a Cardinals team with the third-lowest implied run total. St. Louis has the second-highest home run total in the league but the 26th most hits so far this season.
With one of the highest ceilings on the slate, Peralta may be worth the price tag tonight if he can keep the ball from flying out of the ballpark.
Hitter
Bo Bichette ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
The second-generation star has struggled at the start of 2022. Bichette has yet to post a positive Plus/Minus game and has just three hits in 32 plate appearances after leading the American League in hits last season.
Bichette will look to right the ship today against the Athletics’ Daulton Jefferies. Although Jefferies got the win in five scoreless innings in his first outing of the year, he allowed high max EV and xwOBA totals.
Despite his slow start, Bichette has the highest ceiling on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel for shortstops. He may be a high-ceiling tournament play with boom or bust potential. He has shown power in the past, finishing in the top-4% in max EV last season, according to Baseball Savant.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Dodgers come into tonight’s game with the highest implied run total against the Reds. This stack features a mix of hitters that appear on the verge of an offensive explosion after so-so early season performances.
Trea Turner has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. He has hit safely in every game this season but has managed just a .334 xSLG. Could this be his first breakout game of the season?
Another slow-starter, Mookie Betts, is well below his normal max EV and hard-hit percentage numbers through six games.
Freddie Freeman has provided the most consistency of the stack with three straight two-hit games but is still looking for his first RBI and home run of the year.
Rounding off the stack are two highly-projected value options. With the sixth-highest salary at catcher on the slate, Will Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He notched his first home run last night in the series opener.
Not to be outdone, infielder Max Muncy has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate and traditionally outperforms against righties.
The Dodgers will face right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez on the mound. The second-year pitcher finished near league averages in most statistical categories in his rookie campaign. He has a tall order tonight in his first career start against the Dodgers.
