Friday’s NBA DFS landscape features the last two games of the play-in tournament starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
After a relatively disappointing first play-in game, Trae Young has been given an $800 salary decrease on DraftKings, making him an 86% Bargain Rating tonight. Young still put up a double-double against the Hornets, where he had 24 points and 11 assists. He only shot 33.3% from the field and 14.3% from behind the arc. Young still nearly put up 50 DraftKings points and he has the highest ceiling on this slate. He is the highest-priced player on FanDuel but is still a great play.
The Hawks are two-point road favorites against the Cavaliers, who they beat in three-straight games. During those three games, Young averaged 35.3 points, 9.7 assists, and 56.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field and 46.4% from downtown. The Cavaliers pose a strong defensive threat, especially in the interior, if Jarrett Allen is back in the lineup. They rank fifth in defensive rating, allowing 105.7 points per game. They also rank 25th in pace. Tough spot, but Young has incredible upside.
Value
Reggie Jackson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. His production takes a dip playing alongside Paul George, but Jackson is still playing very high minutes and still has the second-highest usage behind George. Last game, Jackson still finished with 32.25 DraftKings points as he played 42 minutes, despite having five fouls. Jackson is only shooting 39.2% from the field this season, but he is averaging 16.8 points per game which is the most he has had since the 2015-’16 season.
The Clippers come into this home game as four-point favorites, but the total is set at only 216 points against the Pelicans. All four play-in games went under the total on Tuesday and Wednesday, so this could be a very low-scoring game.
Jackson has struggled against the Pelicans thus far, but adding George in the mix will take the opponent’s top defender off of him, which will help. He is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Clippers, who are the biggest favorites on the slate. Jackson will play a ton and is still too cheap.
Editor’s note: Paul George (health protocols) was ruled out after this piece was submitted.
FastBreak
Darius Garland is another point guard who saw a major price decrease on DraftKings. He has scored over 40 DraftKings points in 15 of his last 18 games. In their last play-in game, Garland scored 34 points while shooting 54.2% from the field. Garland only played against the Hawks twice this year.
He averaged 24 points, eight assists, and 41.4 DraftKings points per game. During those games, Garland had a ridiculous 35.3% usage rate. Despite being this cheap and another point guard, Garland ranks third in our model in terms of ceiling. Pairing Garland and Young together may be the best approach to this slate.
The Hawks rank 26th in defensive rating this season, allowing 112.4 points per game. This is a great spot to target the high-usage Garland.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George and the Clippers nearly held on against the Timberwolves in their first play-in game. Seeing George play 41 minutes goes to show how he is fully healthy and off of any minutes restriction. During that game, he recorded his second-straight game with 57 DraftKings points. He had 34 points on 10-for-24 from the field and 6-for-12 from behind the arc. George is the highest-priced player on DraftKings at $10,000, but it is deserving based on how he has played lately and this matchup against the Pelicans.
The Pelicans have been surprising on the defensive end. Mainly due to rookie Herbert Jones who has been a phenomenal defender and will likely draw the Paul George assignment. Jones ranks 10th among small forwards in defensive real plus-minus this season. However, the Pelicans as a team allow opponents to shoot 47.1%, which ranks 24th in the league. Look for George to play another 40 minutes or more tonight, especially if the Pelicans can keep this game competitive. Even at this salary, he is tough to ignore.
Editor’s note: Paul George (health protocols) was ruled out after this piece was submitted.
Value
The Hawks are a team that we can take some value from, especially given the fact that they have the highest total on the slate. Kevin Huerter stands out as he has been one of the better shooting guards recently in this salary range. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 games on DraftKings. During that time, he is playing 31 minutes per game and has posted six games over 30 DraftKings points. He is leading the Hawks, shooting a career-high 38.9% from behind the arc.
Huerter may get the luxury of playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is listed as questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Using our On/Off Tool, Huerter is leading the Hawks in minutes with Bogdanovic off the floor this season. It also helps that fellow backcourt teammate Lou Williams is out tonight. Even if Bogdanovic is able to play, Huerter still makes for a really solid value option. Scoring inside may be difficult for the Hawks against the Cavaliers twin towers, making Huerter even more valuable.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum had his way against the Spurs in his last game. He was scoring from all over the court as he finished with 32 points, seven assists, and six rebounds, shooting 52.2% from the field and 3-for-5 from behind the arc. McCollum has been sensational since joining the Pelicans.
He is averaging a career-high 24.3 points per game, nearly shooting 50% from the field. He will need to be on his A-game if the Pelicans want to upset the Clippers. This is a very tough matchup as the Clippers have a top-10 defense and play incredible slow, especially with George back in the mix. McCollum is going to go out swinging. He has several games where he has posted over 30% usage rate. He seems to be option one, which is always a player to target.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram closed out the last play-in game very strong, but he picked up his fourth foul very early in the third quarter and ended up only playing 30 total minutes. He still managed nearly 40 DraftKings points due to a very efficient 11-for-19 shooting performance. Those shots won’t come as easy tonight against this Clippers defense, but Ingram still has a high ceiling at this salary. Even though Ingram is the highest-priced small forward on DraftKings, he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus for value.
Ingram dealt with a hamstring injury that kept him out for most of the month of March. He came back and did not have a minutes restriction in the last game. It just so happened that he got into foul trouble and only played 30 minutes. Our model has Ingram projected for 37 minutes tonight, which is much more reasonable. He is averaging over 22 points per game for the third-straight season and seems to be playing well alongside McCollum. This duo can score in bunches and will need to tonight against the Clippers.
Value
Herbert Jones was one of the best value plays on Wednesday and should be right up there again as one of the best options tonight. Jones does most of his damage on the defensive end as he has recorded 3.5 combined blocks and steals in eight-straight games. He has three games over 30 DraftKings points during that time, as he has become a formidable scorer and facilitator as well. His salary is a little higher on FanDuel, but Jones has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games.
As I previously mentioned, the Pelicans will need Jones and his defense against Paul George in this matchup. Jones did an exceptional job against Dejounte Murray in their last game, holding him to 16 points on 5-for-19 shooting from the field. A stat that goes overlooked is Jones has made at least one 3-pointer in five of the last six games. Opponents leave him wide open from the perimeter several times per game. Jones played 37 minutes in the last game and is projected for 36 minutes tonight. A great value option.
Fast Break
Marcus Morris is another Clippers player that will play heavy minutes and can rack up DraftKings points in a hurry with his perimeter shot. He also got ejected after an altercation with Patrick Beverley last game, but Morris still managed to play 30 minutes. He has struggled recently as he has posted three-straight games below 20 DraftKings points. He is another player that has a dip in production now that Paul George is healthy. Despite his inconsistent play recently, Morris has the highest projected Plus/Minus for any forward on FanDuel. He is also second on the entire slate behind Reggie Jackson. Morris has an 87% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, which is where he should be prioritized. He will likely need to get hot from the perimeter to pay off value, but he can.
Power Forward
Stud
Evan Mobley is once again the power forward to target in the stud range. Granted, his salary on both sites suggests he is in the mid-range pricing tier. The status of Jarrett Allen is the biggest question mark on the slate. He is listed as questionable, but be sure to monitor our news dashboard to get his status closer to lock. Since returning from an ankle injury a few weeks ago, Mobley is averaging 18 points, eight rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game while shooting 62.2% from the field over his last three games.
The Hawks are a below-average interior defensive team. The Cavaliers are projected for only 110.5 points, but that is the second-highest on this small two-game slate. Mobley can create on his own to an extent, but he still relies on the pick and roll action with Darius Garland for a majority of his offensive looks. Mobley is a solid mid-range play but would become a great play if Allen were to get ruled out. In 17 games without Allen this season, Mobley has averaged 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.
Value
Danilo Gallinari is another Hawks value play that could greatly benefit if Bogdan Bogdanovic is ruled out. Gallinari has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings among power forwards. He was in and out of the lineup a ton towards the end of March but played 30 minutes in their last game and had 18 points on 7-for-12 from the field. Gallinari has had a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games. He is a very streaky player. Gallinari has scored 26 points in two of his last four games, so he has upside.
Gallinari is leading the way on FanDuel for the highest ownership on the slate. That may come down if Bogdanovic is ruled in, but he is in a very favorable spot in the starting lineup for the Hawks. Gallinari has shot well over 50% from the field in four of his last five games. In those four games, he is averaging 21.3 points per game, with each of those games surpassing 25 DraftKings points. Being favorites, there are plenty of options on the Hawks to take, but Gallinari should be prioritized as one of the best.
Fast Break
De’Andre Hunter could have been used as a value option here, but his salary has skyrocketed since his last game. Hunter is also only small forward eligible on DraftKings, but there isn’t that much from the power forward position to discuss, and he is eligible on FanDuel. Finding a way to talk about Hunter on this slate was a necessity. When Hunter pops, he usually has a ceiling game. He has scored double-digit points in 19 of his last 21 games. However, the two misses, he scored zero and five points, both resulting in below 10 DraftKings points. Those seem like outliers as Hunter has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 14 games on FanDuel. His price tag has come up on both sites, but he is playing extremely well, and his defense will be needed.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas is by far the best ceiling and value center according to our model. Valanciunas is coming off a 50-point DraftKings night where he recorded a double-double with 22 points and 14 rebounds. He played 36 minutes, which has been the biggest factor in his success this season. Valanciunas is averaging a career-high 30.3 minutes per game in his first season with the Pelicans. He is also averaging a double-double for the fourth-straight season and will be another great mid-range option on this slate.
Valanciunas has another great chance to post a double-double as the Clippers rank 26th in rebounding percentage and 25th in points allowed in the paint. This is a fantastic matchup for Valanciunas to get more minutes and be a dominant force in the interior. He is projected to play 34 minutes and be the best option at center tonight. The Pelicans have the lowest implied total on the slate, but the matchup is so good for Valanciunas. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 11 games.
Value
Ivica Zubac was a little disappointing last game, where he failed to record a double-double for the first time in five-straight games. He played 32 minutes which was very encouraging even though he ended up fouling out in a game where the referees called 54 total fouls. That was also the first game that Zubac has recorded a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven-straight games. Zubac has scored over 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is projected for nearly 30 once again tonight.
Zubac is only center eligible, but if you wanted a Clippers big on FanDuel who is power forward eligible, then look to Isaiah Hartenstein. His minutes aren’t nearly as secure as Zubac as he only played seven minutes in the first play-in game. Zubac is averaging career-highs across the board in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and minutes. He has become a staple of the Clippers’ interior. The Pelicans rank in the top 10 of points allowed in the paint, making this a tougher matchup for Zubac, but he still has value.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has turned into a monster recently. The Hawks have won eight of their last 10 games, and Capela is a major reason why. During those 10 games, he is averaging a massive double-double with 14.5 points and 13 rebounds per game. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of those 10 games on FanDuel.
In 28 games without John Collins this season, Capela has averaged 12 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. He also ranks fourth in the league in total rebounds and seventh in field goal percentage per game. The Cavaliers are a tough matchup for opposing centers, but Capela will have to play even more, especially if Jarrett Allen is back in the lineup. Pairing him with Young is always a great option, given their elite pick and roll.
