The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Thursday’s six-game slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Cody Bellinger ($2,700): Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s been a seemingly neverending slide for former MVP Cody Bellinger, who has seen his metrics tumble in each of the past three seasons. That’s sent his DFS salary into a tailspin, with the Dodgers outfielder checking in at $2,700 on tonight’s slate. Bellinger is coming off his best performance of the season, making him the perfect buy-low candidate against the Reds.
Belli went 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk on Wednesday night, just his third and fourth hits of the season. Those hits elevated his slugging percentage to .143 on the season, well below his career average of .508 and below last season’s career-worst .302 mark. Bellinger has plenty of room for growth, which could start tonight against the Reds’ bullpen.
Luis Cessa is being used as an opener, paving the way for a bullpen day from the Reds. Relief pitchers haven’t offered much reprieve for Cincinnati, allowing the 19th-ranked earned run average, 18th-ranked walks and hits per inning pitched, and the second-most round-trippers.
Bellinger is in a hitter-friendly park and faces a Reds’ bullpen that is struggling to start the year. Belli’s climb should continue on Thursday night.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Joey Gallo ($2,700): Outfielder, New York Yankees
There will be some offensive fireworks in AL East matchups this season, and that should ring true when the Yankees host the Blue Jays for the conclusion of their four-game set. Outfielder Joey Gallo has had some of the worst luck this season, but he projects as a top bargain option on Thursday’s slate.
Gallo is mashing the ball to start the season, with an average exit velocity of 98.1 miles per hour, ranking in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. That’s contributing to his expected slugging percentage of .889, putting him in even more elite company and rating in the 98th percentile. Still, the two-time All-Star hasn’t translated that to onfield success, accumulating a .188 slugging percentage through six games.
That substantial disconnect between expected and actual values implies that Gallo is a progression candidate over his coming games. Now is the time to buy before his salary creeps up to reflect his fantasy ceiling.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Walker Buehler ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
A former first-round selection, Walker Buehler is coming off a 5.0 inning, five strikeout performance in a season-opening win over the Rockies. The Great American Ballpark isn’t a pitcher’s refuge, but there are a few indicators suggesting that Buehler should reach his fantasy ceiling against the Reds.
As we know, strikeouts are a massive component of a pitcher’s fantasy success, and the Reds are doing their part to ensure pitchers leave their matchups with a few extra fantasy points. Cincinnati has the eighth-most strikeouts in the MLB, getting sat down 30.7% of the time.
With six pitches to choose from, Buehler has several ways to put batters away. Throughout his career, Buehler strikes out 9.9 batters per nine innings, equalling a K% of 27.6%. Those metrics could be amplified against a Reds team that is one of the worst hitting teams to start the season.
Weighing the available data, Buehler rates as one of the best pitching options available.
Hitter
Seiya Suzuki ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
There’s nothing like the thin mountain air of Coors Field to elevate a hot batter’s fantasy ceiling. Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki is riding high to start his MLB career, and we could see him achieve a new height against the Rockies.
Suzuki rates as one of the best hitters in the majors, putting up a top 3% expected slugging percentage and top 1% barrel rate to start the season. The Japanese slugger is making sweet spot contact 63.6% of the time with a 21.2 launch angle, which is conducive to long balls.
Perennially, Coors rates as a hitter-friendly destination, but there’s more at play for Suzuki tonight. The right-handed batter has the added advantage of staring down pitches from southpaw Kyle Freeland.
It’s a recipe for success, and he projects as an elite ceiling option.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected ceiling from the Colorado Rockies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Rockies have been one of the best hitting teams to start the year, and we’re expecting that to continue as they kick off a seven-game homestand against the Cubs. Amplifying their potential is a matchup against Justin Steele, who gives up an average of 1.32 walks and hits per inning pitched, including 1.9 home runs per nine innings.
Connor Joe and Charlie Blackmon are projected as the 1-2 hitters for the Rockies and are the table setters for the power bats behind them. Joe has a .458 on-base percentage to start the season, and Blackmon is coming off his first two-hit performance of the season.
Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, and Brendan Rodgers slot in as middle of the order bats and should be expected to produce against the Cubbies. Cron is raking to the tune of a .700 slugging percentage, with Bryant making headway at .500. Rodgers has been less effective, but he remains well below career averages and should start to work his way back up to career norms. Batting fifth in this lineup gives Rodgers plenty of opportunities to produce.
Colorado has several noteworthy lineups highlighted in our stack builder, but the above combination rates as the best.
