The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Detroit Pistons – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Luka has been great all year, but he’s closing the season on a blistering heater. He’s scored at least 30 points in five straight, and in that span, he’s averaged 33.8 points, 10.2 assists, 9.2 rebounds, 3.6 triples and 1.6 stocks, good for 61.3 fantasy points (63.3 on the road).
Tonight’s matchup with the Pistons gives Doncic an enormous Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus. Despite the nine-point spread in Dallas’ favor, the Pistons are the best team against the spread since the All-Star break and should keep this one competitive. Doncic went for 33/11/7 with two blocks and a steal in his only other meeting with Detroit this season.
Top Value: Ish Smith at Atlanta Hawks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Smith went off for 11 points, 14 dimes and eight boards in Tuesday’s surprising win over the Timberwolves, teasing a triple-double and setting a season-high in assists.
Over his last four, Smith has averaged 11.5 points, 8.8 dimes, 3.8 boards, 1.8 triples and 1.0 steals while playing over 27 minutes per game. In those contests, he’s posted better than 32 fantasy points per game. Tonight’s matchup with the Hawks offers a favorable defensive matchup with Atlanta’s lackluster defense and the highest over/under on the slate at a healthy 232.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
It’s unclear who the Thunder will start against the Jazz tonight, but based on last night’s starting five, this should be a cakewalk for Spida. Oklahoma City trotted out Zavier Simpson, Georgios Kalaitzakis, Vit Krejci, Jaylen Hoard and Isaiah Roby in a tanking display so vulgar it would have made the 2015-16 “Process” 76ers ill.
Mitchell has averaged better than 40 fantasy points over his last 10 contests, and he posted 24 points, 10 assists and four boards when he faced the Thunder a month ago. The pricing is ludicrous, so take advantage of a massive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Boston Celtics – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Dosunmu’s highly-productive January/February stretch is in the rearview, but he’s still a full-time starter who plays at least 30 minutes a night. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a player like that under $4K. Dosunmu has averaged over 20 fantasy points across his last two contests, and if Zach LaVine misses a second straight contest, Dosunmu’s outlook is even better.
Note: Dosunmu is eligible at PG on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at New York Knicks – $11,300 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
NBA fans should have the popcorn ready for tonight’s cross-town rivalry, which will feature Kevin Durant playing at Madison Square Garden. This is a pace-down spot for Brooklyn but a solid Opponent Plus/Minus against a Knicks team that’s all but packed it in this season.
Durant ranks third all-time in points per game against the Knicks at 29.5, and he posted 53 and 27 against them in two prior meetings this season. If you’re looking to spend up for a star tonight, Durant is an excellent choice.
Top Value: Jaylen Hoard at Utah Jazz – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The third-year man out of Wake Forest has certainly made the most of his playing time as of late. He went off for 24 points and 21 rebounds in last night’s win over the Blazers and has averaged 17.5 points, 20.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 stocks and 1.0 triples in two starts. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to starting lineups, and if Hoard starts again, fantasy managers should take notice.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Chicago Bulls – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Tatum is probable tonight, but the Celtics play a back-to-back set Wednesday and Thursday, so make sure to keep an eye on his status ahead of tip-off.
In the month of March, Tatum averaged 32.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 4.2 triples. In those 13 games, he went for at least 50 fantasy points six times. He’s got a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and gets a positive Opponent Plus/Minus with a solid Pace Differential.
Top Value: Obi Toppin vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
No stoppin’ Obi Toppin? He’s still very affordable at his current salary on either site, and he comes into this one with two straight 20-point games under his belt. In his last six starts, Toppin has averaged 17.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.7 triples and 1.4 stocks, good for 34.1 fantasy points. Tonight’s matchup with the Nets provides Toppin a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Gobert has grabbed at least 20 boards in two straight and posted his first 20/20 game of the season on Wednesday against the Grizzlies. Tonight’s matchup with Oklahoma City’s shorthanded and actively tanking roster should a boon for the NBA’s leading rebounder.
It’s no surprise that Gobert has had some huge games against the Thunder this season, averaging 14.3 points, 18.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in three prior matchups. He gets a great Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential and comes in at a very affordable price, especially on DraftKings.
Top Value: Hassan Whiteside vs. Oklahoma City – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
One Jazz center is great, but why not make it twice as nice? Whiteside is one of the best per-minute fantasy contributors this season, and he just put up 14/10 and four blocks against the Grizzlies in 18 minutes on Wednesday.
Utah is favored by 16.5 tonight, and a blowout means that Whiteside would get more minutes down the stretch. At such a low price, he’s worth some exposure in tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
