Sunday’s NBA DFS landscape features an eight-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Dejounte Murray is the stud point guard to target. The big question is whether or not he will be in the lineup. He missed last game due to a sudden illness and is questionable with that same illness tonight. Make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock. Murray’s ceiling is tough to match on this eight-game slate. He has scored over 50 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 13 games.
The Spurs are the biggest favorite on the slate, as they are favored by 14.5 points over the Trail Blazers. They are implied for 123 points, as they have a one-game lead plus the tiebreaker over the Lakers for the last seed in the play-in tournament. The Blazers have completely mailed in this season. They have lost 16 of their last 18 games since the All-Star Break while allowing 126.5 points per game. The Spurs just beat the Blazers 130-111 in their last game without Murray. Make sure he is in before rostering him.
Value
If you are looking to dumpster dive at the point guard position, Aaron Holiday is your best option. The Suns are resting Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and Jae Crowder and are still 14-point favorites against the Thunder. Holiday is the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel and he is the highest projected Plus/Minus point guard on the slate for DraftKings, making him a great value.
Holiday has played really well recently despite his playing time fluctuating. We have him projected to play 19 minutes tonight, which should provide enough time for Holiday to be a nice salary saver. There are a few studs that we can roster on this slate, especially at the center position. Only use Holiday if you are looking strictly at an aggressive stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
Fast Break
Jordan Poole has done an incredible job filling in for Stephen Curry. This time of the year, the On/Off Tool is one of our best friends. With Curry off the floor this season, Poole leads the Warriors in usage rate increase and has a +3.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus. During that time, he has played over 1,100 minutes, which is by far the most on the team. Poole is coming off back-to-back 30-point games where he poured in at least six 3-pointers in each contest. He will carry that momentum into the Kings game tonight.
We will use the On/Off Tool once again for the Cavaliers to target Darius Garland. With Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Ricky Rubio and Collin Sexton off the floor this season, Garland has a 32.6% usage rate. He has popped his upside with games of 60 and 70 DraftKings points during the month of March. The Cavaliers have a small chance of getting out of the play-in tournament, but Garland is going to have to play out of his mind. Tough test against the 76ers tonight, but Garland has shown upside.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden sure hasn’t been playing like a stud lately, but we know the upside is there. Harden has banked on his peripherals to guide his fantasy output. Playing alongside Joel Embiid has really limited his true ceiling. Since joining the 76ers, Harden is averaging 22.1 points, 9.8 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game in 17 games played, which is a significant dropoff from past seasons.
What has dipped the most for Harden is his usage rate. Harden is only averaging a 25.7% usage rate and has had a negative Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 15 games on DraftKings. He only attempted 10 field goals in their game last night, granted they won by 30 points and Harden only played 31 minutes. The Cavaliers defense isn’t as scary in the paint without their twin towers. Harden ranks in the top 10 in drives per game this season, and he should be able to get easy points in this spot.
Value
D’Angelo Russell has seen a significant price decrease across the industry due to his poor play recently. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight, as he is one of the best value plays on the slate. The Timberwolves have a slight chance to get the sixth seed in the Western Conference. They could be one game back if they win and the Lakers somehow beat the Nuggets.
Russell has failed to reach 40 DraftKings points in 12-straight games. During that time, he has three games under 20 DraftKings points. He is averaging a career-high seven assists per game, but his scoring numbers are way down. He is only averaging 18 points per game while shooting an abysmal 41% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc. Great matchup if Russell can figure it out.
Fast Break
Paul George is back at just the right time for the Clippers. He has played in two out of the last three games, and his salary is starting to ramp up. It is deserving, as George put up 57.5 DraftKings points in his first game back after missing 43-straight games! One of the best parts about George is his steals upside. He had seven steals in his first two games back. He does it on both ends of the floor. He is projected to play 30 minutes. George is a great way to get different at the top in this spot against the Pelicans.
Sticking in that same game, CJ McCollum has been incredible since joining the Pelicans. He is averaging a career high in points and assists per game while shooting 50.5% from the field. Getting out of Damian Lillard‘s shadow has allowed McCollum to reach a higher ceiling. He is coming off his second game in his last four where he put up over 50 DraftKings points. This late-night hammer is going to be filled with potential, and getting to McCollum who is playing so well lately is a great place to be.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram gets the nod as the stud at small forward tonight. Playing alongside McCollum has actually elevated Ingram’s game. He is averaging a career-high 5.6 assists per game, while he is still averaging nearly 23 points for the third consecutive season. The Pelicans have won six of their last eight games, as they are firmly in the play-in tournament and present a dangerous out.
The Clippers are a much different defensive test with George healthy. In 28 games with George in the lineup this season, the Clippers have a defensive rating of 106.1, compared to 114.3 when he is not in the lineup. This game is projected to be the closest on the slate, and Ingram will need to be heavily involved once again for the Pelicans to come out on top in this road contest.
Value
The highest-rated player on DraftKings in our Tournament Model tonight is Caris LeVert. He is another Cavaliers player that needs to step up in the absence of the twin towers. LeVert has been a little hit or miss lately. He has two games where he scored over 40 DraftKings points in his last three games. The one he missed, he only had 21.75 DraftKings points. Which LeVert will show up?
The playing time will be there for LeVert, as we have him projected to play 36 minutes. The part we don’t know is how well he will shoot the ball. He is a streaky shooter playing against a rather difficult defense in the 76ers that allows only 106.8 points per game. Keep LeVert to tournaments only due to his inconsistencies, but he provides enough value and so much upside in this spot.
Fast Break
Despite being priced higher on DraftKings than Ingram, Jimmy Butler is actually one of the best plays on the slate on FanDuel tonight. His $7,600 price tag has him with a 95% Bargain Rating, as he has scored over 40 FanDuel points in four out of his last seven games. The Heat remain at the top of the Eastern Conference as they try to finish the season strong, as they are finally healthy. This is a back-to-back so make sure to monitor Butler’s status, but his price is way too low on FanDuel tonight.
Anthony Edwards is one of the most boom-or-bust fantasy players in the league this season. His inconsistencies keep his price tag in check, which is great for tournaments. The Rockets always present the best matchup in the league. They rank 29th in defensive rating and allow a league-high 117.8 points per game. This game features the highest total on the slate at 243.5 points, as these two teams rank first and second in pace. Get a piece of Edwards in tournaments, as he could have a ceiling performance.
Power Forward
Stud
Over the last three games, Pascal Siakam has really shown his upside, providing a double-double in each game. During that time, Siakam is averaging 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. He has played a ridiculous 43.3 minutes per game over that stretch, which should come as no surprise. Rostering a Raptors player comes with a fantastic floor; Siakam is second to his teammate Fred VanVleet in minutes this season with 37.8 per game. Look for the minutes to stay high in this spot against the Heat.
The Raptors have won five-straight games as they host the leaders in the Eastern Conference. The Heat present a difficult matchup, as they allow the fewest points in the paint this season at 41 per game and play at the third-slowest pace in the league. This game has the lowest total on the slate at 212.5 points, but the Raptors are favored by 3.5 points. Tough spot, but Siakam is a stud.
Value
The Thunder have so many players out that they are bringing guys up left and right. Jaylen Hoard played 40 minutes in their last game and had 46.5 DraftKings points, as he provided a double-double with 11 points and 20 rebounds! Who is Jaylen Hoard? Exactly. His salary went from minimum price up to $5,000 on FanDuel and nearly that on DraftKings. Can we trust the minutes tonight?
Our model has Hoard projected to play 35 minutes, as most of the Thunder players are out once again. He is risky in the sense that he came literally out of nowhere and played that many minutes. The Thunder will likely get blown out by the Suns, but does that even matter for Hoard? Who knows. He is risky tonight, but he may be worth the risk. Your guess is as good as mine.
Fast Break
Outside of Siakam, power forward is a ghost town tonight. The model loves Jonathan Kuminga, but he has only played nine total minutes in his last two games. We have him projected for 34 minutes, making him one of the best values on the slate due to the matchup against the Kings. Draymond Green back has certainly hampered the playing time for Kuminga. The Warriors are running funky rotations, so they are a tough team to judge. He is another high-risk, high-reward type of player on this slate.
Tobias Harris may be slowly and surely coming into his own with the 76ers’ new lineup construction. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in six of his last seven games. The playing time will be there without a doubt, he will just need to take away some usage from James Harden. The upside with Harris was also shown just three games ago, when he had a double-double against the Suns and finished with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists for 53.25 DraftKings points. Upside here if he steals some usage.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is doing his best to make a late push in the MVP race. The 76ers have lost three of their last four games, but it certainly isn’t due to Embiid. During those four games, he is averaging a huge double-double with 33 points and 14.5 rebounds per game while shooting 57.8% from the field. Embiid ranks second in the league in both usage rate and points per game. He is unstoppable.
In three games against the Cavaliers, Embiid has had his way averaging 32.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. One game he even had a triple-double! The 76ers won each game, and they are 4.5-point road favorites tonight. Embiid has the highest ceiling on this slate. A big reason why is the Cavaliers will more than likely still be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Play the big fella.
Value
We know the drill by now. With DeAndre Ayton out, play JaVale McGee. It is that simple. In 15 games without Ayton this season, McGee is averaging 11.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 25.5 DraftKings points per game. Despite being only projected to play 22 minutes tonight, McGee has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Suns are 14-point road favorites implied for 118 points, as the Thunder have zero size to match up with McGee in the paint. The Thunder are another team that has mailed in their season as they try to tank for a higher draft pick. They rank 25th in rebounding percentage so despite playing limited minuets, McGee has a chance to double-double tonight. He is fantastic in all formats.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns is extremely close to being one of the best plays on the slate. He has only scored over 39 DraftKings points once in his last five games, but this matchup against the Rockets is incredible. We already know the Timberwolves have the highest implied total on the slate, but the Rockets also get torched in the interior. They allow the most points in the paint this season with 53.1 per game. The Rockets also rank 28th in rebounding percentage. Towns should dominate the paint in this matchup.
Jonas Valanciunas has been one of the most consistent players in the league this season. Center is absolutely loaded on this slate, but don’t forget about Valanciunas. He has had a double-double in 10-straight games and is averaging 19.4 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 46.7 DraftKings points per game. The Clippers allow the sixth-most points in the paint and rank 27th in rebounding percentage. Valanciunas ranks second to Nikola Jokic in double-doubles with 50 and has a great chance add another tonight.
