The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Los Angeles has been awful against opposing point guards all year, ranking 30th in fantasy points against, so it’s no surprise to see one of the league’s best scorers up here as one of the players with the highest ceilings on the entire slate. Doncic has a 15% chance of hitting 70 points, according to our model.
Top Value: Ish Smith vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
The Bulls defense has really fractured of late, ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency in the second half of the season. That, combined with perhaps some tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back, could help Smith’s value skyrocket here. Our model sets him as a 5X play on both sites with a projected 20 minutes on the floor.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Harden is another top option on Tuesday with a ceiling over 60 points, or close to it, depending on your site. The Bears it just a game removed from a 65+ fantasy point outing, so it’s easy to look past his dud last time out against a solid Suns defense. Milwaukee has ranked just 18th since the All-Star break in defensive efficiency.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Washington Wizards – $4,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Dosunmu is obviously a much better bargain on FanDuel, but he’s just as valuable on DraftKings, where you can slot him in at point guard — a position which is barren here on Tuesday. He played just 20 minutes against the Knicks on Monday, but we have him projected for 33 with various injury concerns on the Chicago side on no rest.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Detroit Pistons – $11,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Durant isn’t here because he has a good matchup; in fact, the Pistons have been excellent on that end since the All-Star break. No, he’s here because he’s Kevin Durant. Despite the fact that Kyrie Irving will now be eligible to play, we still have him set for a hefty Usage Rate near 30% and with that, have his ceiling around 70 fantasy points.
Top Value: Corey Kispert vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The Bulls were torched by a dynamic scorer in Alec Burks on Monday night, and another wing may have a decent shot at taking them to school on Tuesday. Kispert is a bargain on DraftKings, where we have him projected to hit 6X, but he’s a solid play on both sites in a game where he should see over 30 minutes.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
It’s another Giannis slate and one which features the Greek as the highest-upside play on the board, according to our model. Antetokounmpo checks in with a projected ceiling of over 65 fantasy points against a Sixers team that has ranked dead last in restricted area defense since the All-Star break, allowing 70.2% shooting at the rim.
Top Value: Wenyen Gabriel vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Gabriel has seen some increased run of late, and despite just over 17 minutes against the Pelicans, we have him projected for close to 30, given how he’d been used up until that point. Dallas has struggled inside against bigger bodies, and Gabriel could have a path to a stat sheet-stuffing night.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $11,300 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
We highlighted the struggles the Bucks have had on defense earlier with Harden, so it should come as no surprise that Embiid’s ceiling sits right near 70 fantasy points. The last time he faced the Bucks back in February, he racked up 69 fantasy points in 27 minutes.
Top Value: Dwight Howard vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
As mentioned above, the Mavericks have struggled to defend inside and have allowed 67.8% of shots to fall inside the restricted area, which ranks 10th-worst in the NBA since the All-Star break. On top of that, they rank 23rd in rebounding rate. Howard should be the man down low for L.A. with Anthony Davis listed as doubtful, and at this price, it’s hard not to play him.
