The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Philadelphia 76ers – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Per usual, Luka has been great over his last three games, averaging 31.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.7 dimes, 4.7 triples and 2.7 stocks in that span. Philly is only a three-point favorite at home, and Doncic posted 33 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds in his only prior matchup with the Sixers this season.
Doncic has absolutely gobbled up usage for the Mavs as of late, commanding a 39.7% usage rate over the last 10 games. At this point, you know you’re getting elite usage and elite production, and Doncic is almost always worth the elevated cost.
If you’re looking to save, he’s a better bargain on FanDuel.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Utah will be severely shorthanded tonight, as all of Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House will be out. Clarkson popped off for a career-best 45 points on Saturday and 26 on Wednesday.
Last year’s Sixth Man of the Year is an elite scorer, and he’ll get a chance to shine on offense against the Clippers. He’ll get a small Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus tonight.
Clarkson is a big value, especially on FanDuel, where his salary is $800 cheaper than on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Booker has continued to thrive in the absence of Chris Paul, 27.6 points, 7.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 triples and 2.6 stocks across his last five games, averaging just under 50 fantasy points per game in that span.
The matchup with the Bulls offers one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate with a 230 over/under. He scored 38 points in 38 minutes against the Bulls when the teams met in early February.
Top Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
As mentioned above, the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House, which should open up plenty of minutes for NAW. He went for 16 points, four rebounds and two steals in 22 minutes on Wednesday, and our model projects him to play 21 minutes against the Clippers. He comes in at the minimum salary on FanDuel and just $100 above the minimum on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
KD has averaged 52.6 fantasy points in three home games since returning to the Nets’ lineup, and Brooklyn hosts Portland tonight in what should be a favorable fantasy environment.
The matchup sports a 225.5 over/under, and Portland’s short-handed squad isn’t likely to offer much resistance to Durant. He gets a tremendous Opponent Plus/Minus and should excel as Brooklyn looks to get a needed victory.
Top Value: Dillon Brooks at Atlanta Hawks – $5,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Ja Morant is questionable tonight with a back injury, and if he’s forced to sit out, Brooks would see a significant bump in usage. The Oregon product has averaged 13 FG attempts in two games back, and he seems to always have the green light to let it rip.
The matchup with Atlanta offers a robust 237 over/under, and Brooks carries a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at a favorable $4.8K price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Sacramento Kings – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Tatum gets a highly advantageous matchup against the Kings tonight, and he’s priced under $10K on both sites. That’s a win-win. Friday’s tilt with Sacramento provides a huge Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus for the Celtics’ All-Star forward.
Tatum has averaged 35.1 points across his last seven while scoring 51.7 fantasy points per game in that span. He went off for 36 points, six assists, four rebounds and a block in his only other matchup with the Kings this season. You can fit him into your lineup tonight without breaking the bank.
Top Value: Tobias Harris vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Tobi has been bad recently. He’s been so bad, in fact, that his price has plummeted to these unbelievably low salaries. He’s averaged 18.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 triples, 2.0 assists and 2.0 stocks over his last three contests and could be in line to pay off strong value in tournaments on this busy slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Jokic had a strong performance against the Cavs when the teams met back in October, posting a 24/19/3/3 line in the Nuggets’ loss. He gets a pace-down spot, but the Opponent Plus/Minus is the best among centers.
Cleveland’s defense has been solid for most of the season, but Jokic can take advantage of this matchup with Jarrett Allen still sidelined. The Joker has averaged 65.1 fantasy points in three away games since his 46-point triple-double against the Pelicans.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Brooklyn Nets – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
We’ll keep rolling with Eubanks until his price spikes or his performance persuades us not to. Over his last three, the Blazers’ big man has averaged 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.0 stocks. In that span, he’s posted two double-doubles and averaged 33.7 fantasy points. He’ll get a solid pace-up spot and strong Opponent Plus/Minus against Brooklyn on the road.
