The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Charlotte Hornets – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Ice Trae has been a cold-blooded assassin over his last two games, scoring at least 46 points in both contests. He’s got one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate and a strong Pace Differential to go with a healthy 238 over/under.
Young’s got a ceiling just under 70 points which isn’t surprising. He’s scored at least 60 fantasy points five times and at least 70 twice more, including two straight 60-point outings. The stellar matchup and his recent hot streak make him an easy stud to pay for on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Goran Dragic vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Kyrie Irving put up a Nets franchise-record 60 points in Tuesday’s win, but that performance is in the past now that Brooklyn is playing at home. Irving will be absent from that contest, and Seth Curry (ankle) is a GTD. That opens the door for Dragic to draw another start. In two home starts with Brooklyn, the veteran has averaged 8.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.0 stocks and 1.0 triples. Our model likes him as the best Points/Salary option on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Houston Rockets – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Devin Booker has thrived in the absence of Chris Paul, taking on primary playmaking duties while still scoring at a high level. Over his last four contests, Booker has averaged 25.5 points, 8.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 triples and 3.1 stocks.
Tonight’s matchup with the tanking Rockets offers a 235.5 over/under with a strong Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus. Book averaged 49.3 fantasy points in three prior matchups with Houston, and his price is quite affordable for a guy who can easily go for 60+ fantasy points on any given night.
Top Value: Will Barton at Washington Wizards – $5,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Barton has played well since returning to the Nuggets’ lineup, averaging 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.5 triples across his last two appearances. The matchup with Washington’s lackluster defense is quite friendly, and the game has a healthy 228.5 over/under. Barton is a great value on FanDuel where he sports a 95% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Sacramento Kings – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Giannis comes into this friendly matchup riding a four-game streak with at least 30 points. In that blistering streak, he’s averaged 35.8 points, 10.5 boards, 4.8 assists and 1.8 stocks.
Antetokounmpo is eligible at SF, but he often operates as a big man where he should be able to take full advantage of Sacramento’s laughable frontcourt defense. The over/under on Bucks/Kings is the highest on the slate at a massive 240, making this an excellent fantasy environment.
Top Value: Taurean Prince vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
After missing the Wolves’ last two games, Jarred Vanderbilt (quad) is questionable tonight, and Jaden McDaniels has been ruled out after suffering an ankle injury in the final minute of Monday’s win over the Spurs.
More minutes should be available for Prince regardless of Vanderbilt’s status, and he should return plenty of value even if he comes off the bench. He posted 13 points, four rebounds, four assists and a steal across 28 minutes Monday, good for 28 fantasy points. He’s a decent option on FanDuel but a tremendous value on DraftKings near the minimum salary.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Despite the Lakers’ continued additions in the loss column, James has put up some gaudy stat lines. Over his last four, he’s averaged 33.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 4.0 triples, 2.0 blocks and 57.2 fantasy points.
The Lakers are 2-7 over their last nine games, and the only two wins have come in the games in which James popped off for at least 50 points. Desperate for a win as the playoffs approach, we should count on another huge stat line from LBJ if LA hopes to overcome a Timberwolves team that’s been red-hot as of late.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at New York Knicks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Drewbanks started off slow in the Blazers’ starting lineup, but he’s turned it on over his last two games with averages of 18.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 stocks. He’s not likely to score as much as Trendon Watford, but Watford is priced close to $7K on both slates. I’ll get in on the Portland action with the lower-priced Eubanks.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Washington Wizards – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The Joker leads the NBA in double-doubles (56) and triple-doubles (18) this season, and he’s been putting up monster stat lines with such regularity that they no longer surprise NBA fans or DFS players.
Jokic posted a huge 28/19/9/3/1 line in his only prior matchup with Washington, and he gets a big Opponent Plus/Minus and 228.5 over/under in the rematch tonight. He’s gone for at least 87 fantasy points twice this season thanks to a pair of 40-point triple-doubles, so fading him is always a risk.
Top Value: Olivier Sarr at San Antonio Spurs – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Sarr isn’t likely to put up 40 fantasy points, but he can certainly return 5-7x value at the low, low price of $3,500 on both slates. Sarr recently replaced Isaiah Roby in the Thunder’s starting lineup and posted 7/7/3 and a block Monday against Charlotte. Tonight against the Spurs, he gets a good Opponent Plus/Minus and solid Pace Differential in a game with a 234.5 over/under.
