The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
One of the most fantasy-friendly games on the slate is between the Thunder and Hornets. There are many ways to go with the Hornets, but the best player on the floor is arguably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He will be heavily involved for the Thunder as they try to get a win after losing five-straight games. The Thunder are double-digit home underdogs in this matchup as they play without Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort. They are implied for 111.25 points, as the Hornets rank third in pace, allowing 114.9 points per game.
Even in a few recent blowouts, Gilgeous-Alexander has been able to get there in value. He has scored 29 or more points in eight of his last nine games. In the lone exception, he only scored eight points on 2-15 shooting as the Thunder got routed by the Timberwolves by 30 points. Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.2 points and 53.9 DraftKings points per game during that nine-game stretch. He is basically blowout proof given what he has done lately, and his ceiling is incredibly high without Giddey in the lineup.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Sacramento Kings – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Alex Caruso returned to the Bulls’ lineup in their last game and didn’t seem to miss a beat. He played 29 minutes and had 28.3 DraftKings points. He filled up the stat sheet like he usually does, especially on the defensive end. Caruso had four steals and one block against the Cavaliers, and he also poured in 11 points and four assists. The price remains too cheap for his upside.
Another thing that sets Caruso apart from the other value guards is this matchup against the Kings. They rank 28th in Defensive Rating and eighth in pace, and their average of 115.5 points per game allowed is the second-highest in the league. The Bulls are still only four-point road favorites, and this total is the second-highest on the slate. Caruso is a fantastic value, especially on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The obvious choice would be to go to James Harden, but at that price and how he has played lately, Donovan Mitchell is the superior option. Mitchell has been very consistent and remains reasonably priced on both sites. He will also occasionally show a great ceiling, and this is a matchup where he has an excellent opportunity to do so.
Where Mitchell can really get cooking is from the perimeter. The Bucks allow the third-fewest points in the paint this season, but they struggle defending behind the arc. They allow the most 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made in the league. Mitchell has made 3.4 made 3-pointers per game for the second consecutive season, and he also ranks sixth in usage rate. Mitchell’s mid-range price tag is a perfect spot to get different on this slate without sacrificing much ceiling.
Top Value: Grayson Allen at Utah Jazz – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Seeing the Bucks and Jazz game with a 234.5 total was a little surprising. This game also has the closest spread as the Bucks are slight road favorites. In his last three games, Grayson Allen is averaging double-digit points and 24.1 DraftKings points per game. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of those three games, and he provides value at guard again on Monday.
It is uncertain if Allen will remain in the starting lineup with Brook Lopez back in the mix, but he’s still projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Bucks, who have a high team total, despite playing the Jazz.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Toronto Raptors – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
LeBron James is small forward eligible on FanDuel, so we’ll slot him here since this slate is loaded at power forward and center. James was well on his way to having another monster game, but the Lakers got destroyed by the Suns last night 140-111. The game was over quite early, but James finished with 31 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in only 30 minutes.
The Lakers are home underdogs Monday vs. the Raptors, but James has an opportunity to get back to his ceiling. James has averaged a ridiculous 43 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 73.3 DraftKings over his previous three games. He is arguably playing better than anyone in the league right now. The salary has increased rapidly, but so has the ceiling.
Top Value: Amir Coffey at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
It is hard to get too carried away with the Clippers’ value, as they are implied to score a slate-low 102.75 points. The top option is Amir Coffey, who is coming in as one of the best value forwards on the slate. Coffey has played back-to-back games with 36 minutes but hasn’t been all that productive in that time. He has played 30 or more minutes in four of his last five games but only has one game where he’s topped 20 DraftKings points. Still, the minutes are promising.
However, the matchup is not so promising. The Cavaliers rank fourth in Defensive Rating this season, allowing 103.7 points per game, and they also play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league. The Clippers rank just 26th in Offensive Rating, but their prices seem very inviting. Coffey is projected for 33 minutes in our model, which will provide him with another opportunity to exceed value.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Utah Jazz – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo put up over 30 points for the third-straight game, but his peripherals were non-existent, and he finished with just 47.5 DraftKings points. He struggled against the Warriors, and this matchup against the Jazz won’t be much better. They rank second in rebounding percentage and play at the ninth-slowest pace. As I mentioned earlier, this will be a great and close game.
Giannis has scored over 60 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. He is scoring like crazy during that stretch, averaging 31.4 points to go along with 12.7 rebounds per game. Similar to James, his ceiling is crazy high. It’s tough to choose between all the stars on Monday, but Giannis certainly needs to be considered.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Atlanta Hawks – $5,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight is Trail Blazers center Drew Eubanks. He just signed another 10-day contract, so he isn’t going anywhere for a little bit. They are coming off their first victory in their last eight games, and Eubanks posted a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds. He had 42 DraftKings points as he shot 9-of-14 from the field. Eubanks is best suited for FanDuel, where he is power forward eligibility gives him a big boost.
It should come as no surprise that the Trail Blazers are the biggest underdog on the slate, and they are getting 14 points on the road against the Hawks. However, the Hawks do not post that big of a threat defensively as they rank 27th in Defensive Rating. Prioritize Eubanks on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and has had a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Philadelphia 76ers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid play against each other tonight. That seems like a rare sight as they haven’t played each other since the 2019 season. Don’t be surprised if Embiid sits this game out on the second leg of their back-to-back. Jokic seems to have the advantage when they battle. Over the last three games playing one another, Jokic has averaged 54.8 DraftKings points to Embiid’s 43.8 DraftKings points per game. Jokic is still playing without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., which also helps.
Jokic leads the slate with the highest ceiling, which should not surprise. Even in a tough matchup like this, Jokic has such a high ceiling doing everything for this Nuggets team. Foul trouble is the only real concern as Embiid leads the league in free throw attempts per game. Hard to think either player will get into foul trouble with this marquee matchup, and Jokic is the best pay-up option.
Top Value: Nikola Vucevic at Sacramento Kings – $8,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Nikola Vucevic isn’t cheap, but he is an incredible value at this price tag on FanDuel. The savings seem too good to pass up. Vucevic has averaged a double-double with 20.3 points and 10 rebounds per game in his last four games while shooting 58.3% from the field. During that time, Vucevic is also averaging 39.6 DraftKings points per game. Not great, but just fine.
What sets Vucevic apart is the matchup against the Kings. I spoke to how much the Kings struggle in general, but they really have a hard time against opposing centers. They allow the second-most points scored in the paint at 51.9 per game, and they rank 24th in rebounding percentage. Vucevic may see an uptick in production, with Zach LaVine also listed as questionable to play. Regardless, this is another excellent midrange option on this slate.
