Sunday’s NBA DFS landscape features a five-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
This may come as a little bit of a surprise, but Trae Young leads the slate on DraftKings with the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model despite being the sixth-most-expensive player. Since the All-Star Break, Young has averaged a double-double with 27.3 points and 10.3 assists per game. John Collins is questionable to play tonight, which would really boost the ceiling for Young. In 11 games without Collins this season, Young is averaging 33.1 points and 10 assists with a 36% usage rate.
Young and the Hawks get a home matchup against the Pacers where they are 12-point favorites. This game has the largest total on the slate at 236.5 points as the Hawks have a slate-high 123.75 implied total. Young ranks third in total usage per game in the entire league. He ranks sixth overall in points and third in assists per game. This is a great spot to target Young on both sites.
Value
Markelle Fultz has looked quite impressive in his five games since returning to action. During that time he is averaging 10.4 points per game while shooting 53.8% from the field. He has yet to play over 20 minutes in any game, but he is averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per game. Monitor the news on Jalen Suggs, who is listed as questionable. If he sits, Fultz could get an uptick in minutes.
Don’t get too carried away with this Magic team even though they beat the Timberwolves in their last outing. They still have a record of 18-50 and are heavy underdogs against the 76ers tonight. They are implied for a slate-low 106 points. The value we get on Fultz mitigates the heavy spread. If Suggs is out, fire up Fultz without hesitation despite the 76ers being 29th in pace this season.
Fast Break
The top of the point guard position is loaded with studs. This Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matchup should be electric. Both players each have an incredible ceiling and are priced $100 from each other on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slight nod goes to Morant as the Grizzlies are 13-point home favorites implied for 121.5 points. He ranks fifth in total usage rate per game this season. Gilgeous-Alexander has been fantastic without Josh Giddey. In 10 games without Giddey, he has averaged 30.4 points and has a ridiculous 37% usage rate. Can’t go wrong with either option in this matchup.
Cole Anthony can also benefit if Suggs is unable to play tonight. In 15 games without Suggs this season, Anthony is averaging 20.1 points per game while increasing his usage rate and field-goal attempts by 3.5 per game for both. He leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Prioritize Anthony on FanDuel, where he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games and has a 94% Bargain Rating. He is the better Magic guard if there is money left in your lineup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden being shooting-guard eligible on both sites is a little interesting, but it certainly helps roster construction. He is coming off of an absolute dud against his former team, where he only had 11 points while shooting 3-for-17 from the field! All three made baskets were from behind the arc. However before that dud, Harden was averaging 56.8 DraftKings points per game with the 76ers while shooting 53.1% from the field. He recorded 80 DraftKings points against the Knicks, so we know the ceiling is high.
As previously mentioned, the Magic are not that great of a basketball team, so Harden should have zero trouble in this matchup. The 76ers are double-digit favorites, and this is a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Harden. If the Magic can somehow keep this game competitive, expect a big game from Harden. The price tag is high across the industry, but the upside is there.
Value
Austin Reaves has the highest projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards on DraftKings tonight. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five-straight games and eight of his last 10. During that five-game stretch, Reaves is averaging 12.2 points per game while shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.4% from behind the arc. Over 55% of his field-goal attempts come from downtown.
The Lakers are in what feels like desperation mode lately. They handled the Wizards with ease after losing in overtime to the Rockets, who have the worst record in the league. Tonight they take on the best team in the league, as the Suns have already clinched a playoff birth. The Suns, at 53-14, rank second in defensive rating this season. Prioritize Reaves on DraftKings with his 94% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Devin Booker is right behind Harden when it comes to ceiling for shooting guards, especially when he is playing without Chris Paul. In five games without Paul this season, Booker is averaging 26 points and eight assists per game. The major increase has been the assist numbers, which he has nearly doubled. Booker is also averaging nearly 10 more DraftKings points per game without Paul in the lineup. The Lakers rank fifth in pace and points per game allowed. The ceiling is attainable tonight.
Rookie Jalen Green is really starting to get in his groove. On FanDuel, he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 17 of his last 19 games, which is absurd. The salary has come up on both sites, but Green is scoring and shooting very well recently. The Pelicans are likely still without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, which should keep this game competitive. The Rockets are playing care-free basketball, which is dangerous to their opponents. Green has the upside to get hot from the perimeter.
Small Forward
Stud
Studs for small forward on this slate are extremely weak. The best option is newly acquired Pacers forward Buddy Hield. After a super hot start, Hield has slowed down a little bit with his new team. He hasn’t scored over 40 DraftKings points in seven-straight games. The benefit to Hield is the extremely heavy minutes. He has averaged 38.9 minutes per game since joining the Pacers. The field-goal attempts remain high and Hield is a high-volume shooter, which is fantastic for DraftKings and FanDuel.
The matchup against the Hawks has the highest total on the slate, which is very intriguing despite the Pacers being double-digit underdogs. The Pacers are 3-5 since the All-Star Break, but only one of those losses has come by more than 10 points. Their games stay competitive even if they are under-manned. The Hawks don’t provide much fear at all defensively. They rank 27th in defensive rating, allowing 111.8 points per game. Hield will play more heavy minutes tonight in this game.
Value
With no McCollum or Ingram around, Naji Marshall is popping as one of the best plays on FanDuel tonight. Marshall moved back into the starting lineup last game and finished with 14 points, seven assists, four rebounds, and three steals while playing 29 minutes. Marshall had 35.5 DraftKings points and is projected to play 28 minutes again tonight. The Pelicans are a home favorite in what should be a relatively close game. They will likely draw plenty of ownership in this matchup against the Rockets.
Both the Rockets and Pelicans are not good basketball teams right now, which is perfectly fine for fantasy, as nearly all of their players are low-priced with upside. The Rockets continue to rank last in defensive rating and second in pace this season. They allow a league-high 118 points per game, which is 2.5 more than the next-closest team. Marshall will be an active piece in this Pelicans offense that should have no problem scoring the basketball. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this team.
Fast Break
Desmond Bane is another way to get exposure to the Grizzlies with their very high implied total. Bane does most of his damage from behind the arc, where the Thunder really struggle defensively. Bane has really taken a step forward in his second season, nearly doubling up his scoring average and increasing his shot volume. He leads the Grizzlies with 2.9 made 3-pointers per game while making 41.4%. The Thunder allow the third-most 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made this season. Dillon Brooks is questionable and may finally come back, but Bane is still a really strong play in this matchup.
Using our On/Off Tool, Jae Crowder has the highest usage rate increase and DraftKings Plus/Minus increase with Paul not on the floor this season. Not only is Paul out, but so is Cameron Johnson who also takes up a good chunk of usage. Crowder has been extremely consistent this season, but he does lack some upside. He has failed to record at least 20 DraftKings points in one of his last 15 games, however he hasn’t reached 38 or more during that time either. Crowder is a great cash-game play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, especially in this positive matchup against the Lakers.
Power Forward
Stud
LeBron James is doing everything he can to keep this Lakers team afloat in the Western Conference. They are clinging on to the ninth seed, as they have lost nine of their last 12 games. James has been superb in his last three games, averaging 43 points, 10.3 rebounds, and seven assists per game while shooting 56.1% from the field and 44.8% from behind the arc. Also during those three games, James has averaged a 38.3% usage rate and 73.3 DraftKings points per game. He is doing everything he can.
As I previously mentioned, this matchup against the Suns is very difficult. However, James is playing on a different level right now. Playing without Anthony Davis has created even more usage rate and ceiling. In 27 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 32.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting 53.3% from the field. If the Lakers have any chance at keeping this game competitive, it will be because of James. This is a primetime game on ESPN; James will come to play.
Value
The best value play on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to our Model is Pelicans forward Jaxson Hayes. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on the slate. He is impossible to ignore at this cheap price tag as he continues to start alongside Jonas Valanciunas. He had a recent tough stretch, but that was when McCollum was in the lineup. No McCollum and Ingram creates more usage and a better chance to snag multiple rebounds. This salary is too cheap for his upside.
Not only are the Rockets horrendous defensively, but they also struggle on the glass. They rank 27th in rebounding percentage this season, as Christian Wood is the only player who averages more than 5.6 rebounds per game. The Rockets also allow 5.9 blocks per game, which ranks third-most in the league. Add in that the Rockets allow the most points scored in the paint this season, and there are a lot of ways Hayes can reach value. Prioritize Hayes on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has seen the biggest slide in production with the addition of Harden. His salary has plummeted to where it is impossible to ignore on FanDuel. Harris is only $5,900 with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Harris needs to be involved if this team wants any chance at taking down the title this season. Since the All-Star Break, Harris has had a negative Plus/Minus in seven of those eight games. He hasn’t scored 31 FanDuel points during that stretch. It has been ugly, but if there was ever a time to hop back in, it’s now.
Wendell Carter Jr. has been an incredible addition to this Magic team. He has averaged a career-high in both points and rebounds with a double-double on 14.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Carter Jr. has also recorded five assists in three of his last four games. He is heavily involved in this Magic offense, as he has finished with a double-double in eight of his last nine games. The 76ers present a very difficult matchup, but if Carter Jr. can stay out of foul trouble, he will perform.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is the obvious top center option tonight and is in a pricing tier of his own. There is some concern here, as Embiid has struggled lately. He has only had one game over 48 DraftKings points in his last four games. However, in that game he did go over, he finished with 74.5 DraftKings points. The ceiling is unquestionably still there any given night. Embiid is tied with James and Giannis Antetokounmpo for the most points per game this season. He leads the league with a ridiculous 9.7 free throws made per game. Embiid is constantly getting fouled, or at least getting the calls whenever he gets the ball in the paint.
The Magic have a few solid bigs with Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, but they don’t have the girth to compete with Embiid on the block. That was proven in their last outing, when Embiid had 50 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 17-for-23 from the field in only 27 minutes! Embiid finished that game with 77 DraftKings points, which could very easily happen again tonight. The 76ers are heavy road favorites, and Embiid will be heavily involved once again. There is risk, but it is also a very scary fade.
Value
After three dud performances in a row, JaVale McGee is back to being a points-per-minute stud. McGee is averaging seven points and 11.5 rebounds per game in his last two games while playing an average of 17 minutes per game. It is incredible how productive he can be in very little time on the floor. Value is a little tough to find at the center position, but McGee stands out.
Without Anthony Davis in the lineup, the Lakers really struggle defending the paint. They have allowed the fourth-most points in the paint this season while allowing a league-high 59.3 points in the last three games. They also rank 22nd in rebounding percentage, allowing 47 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth-highest in the league. McGee should have no problem having another great DraftKings point-per-minute performance. He is a great salary saver in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
Fast Break
Mo Bamba continues to have a ridiculous price on FanDuel. He is just $4,400 and has a 98% Bargain Rating. FanDuel is the perfect spot for Bamba, as he is tied for fourth in blocks with 1.7 per game. The matchup and foul trouble concern guarding Embiid is real, but this price is simply too cheap if Bamba can stay out of foul trouble. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven-straight games on FanDuel and is coming off of a 27-point, 12-rebound performance. He has crazy upside at this price.
Jonas Valanciunas is an extremely boom-or-bust player, but that is who we need to target for tournaments. Over the last five games, Valanciunas has a DraftKings score as high as 62.25 and has two games below 14 DraftKings points. Playing without McCollum and Ingram benefits his usage as well, but there is significant risk in this spot. Keep Valanciunas to only tournaments.
