The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. The percentage you see for the Bargain Rating indicates the percentile rank of a player based on how much of a bargain he is in a specific slate when considering historical pricing data across sites.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can easily see with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary projects them to score, this is good company for Bargain Rating to be in.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Tyler Stephenson ($3,300): Catcher, Cincinnati Reds
Coming off his first full major league season in 2021, the Reds have inserted Tyler Stephenson as a middle-of-the-order hitter. He has the 10th-highest DraftKings salary on the main slate tonight and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +0.85. Though he only swatted 10 home runs in 2021, he did post a respectable .346 xwOBA and .286 BA.
The Reds have high expectations for this former first-round pick, and he represents a bargain, even with a difficult matchup against Atlanta’s Charlie Morton. Morton finished 14-6 with a .282 xwOBA in 2021 with the Braves.
He could be a low-ownership tournament play.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Yulieski Gurriel ($2,600): First Baseman, Houston Astros
A career .293 hitter, Yulieski Gurriel excelled at the plate in 2021 by posting a career-best .319 batting average and .383 OBP, helping Houston make another World Series run. His .326 xwOBA and 9.8 BB% were also career highs.
In his seven years in the big leagues, Gurriel has consistently put the ball in play. According to Baseball Savant, he has ranked in the top 3% of the league in K% each of the last five seasons, with an 11.2% K rate in 2021.
The Astros have the fourth-highest expected runs on the slate against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Reid Detmers.
His power numbers have come back to earth after swatting 31 homers in 2019, but Gurriel could be a strong low-cost option today for lineups with studs at other positions.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
To pay up or not to pay up? That is the never-ending question with Max Scherzer.
At 37 years old, Scherzer still showed incredible form in 2021 by posting a 15-4 record and finishing third in Cy Young Award voting. He led the majors with a 0.864 WHIP while splitting time between Washington and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
All signs point to Scherzer making his return to Nationals Park for the first time with his new ball club tonight as he appears to have overcome a hamstring setback from spring training. His salary is well above any other pitchers in today’s slate, but his ceiling of 34.5 DraftKings points and 58.9 FanDuel points are also well above the rest.
Scherzer spent over six seasons in Washington and will be highly motivated tonight. He may be worth the hefty price tag, especially in cash games.
Hitter
Peter Alonso ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
The University of Florida product has hit the ball hard ever since entering the major leagues. He has ranked in the top 3% of hitters in Max Exit Velocity in each of his first three seasons in New York. Couple that with his .377 xwOBA and .542 xSLG rates in 2021, and he has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s top young talents.
Alonso picked up yesterday where he left off last season, going 2-4 and exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings by +2.14 pints against opening day starter Patrick Corbin and the Nationals.
Today, he faces second-year right-hander Josiah Gray who gave up a 12.2 Barrel % and .325 xwOBA last season.
Alonso represents boom or bust potential in lineups. He has a tendency to strike out at a high rate (.313 SO/AB), but his ceiling potential makes him worth a start for the salary.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by projected points in our stacking tool is the Los Angeles Angels. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Angels mustered just four hits and a single run on opening day as Framber Valdez and the Astros won 3-1. They look to rebound at home tonight and get their bats going.
This stack has two top studs in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani with high price tags. They also represent the two highest ceilings on the slate.
Trout looks to stay healthy this year after two straight injury-plagued seasons. When healthy, he is a difference-maker. The three-time MVP has produced a .432 xwOBA and 39.3 Sweet Spot % since 2015. Looking to rebound from a loss on the mound on opening day, Ohtani will focus on the batter’s box tonight, where he launched 46 home runs and tallied a .411 xwOBA.
These two superstars give this lineup stack a ton of potential in all formats.
Anthony Rendon has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the group at +1.13 and the third-highest Ceiling on the slate for third basemen.
Rounding out the stack are two young starters in Jared Walsh and Jo Adell. Walsh was named an all-star last year in his first full season with the Angels. He showed good power with 29 home runs in 2021 and finished top-6% in the league in Max EV each of the last two seasons, according to Baseball Savant.
Adell is still finding his groove at the plate. The former first-round pick has hit .202 in 74 career games with seven home runs and 90 strikeouts. His is a low-cost flyer option in this stack filled with top talent.
They will face right-hander Jake Odorizzi on the mound tonight who is coming off a sub-.500 2021 season (6-7 record) in which he gave up a .316 wOBA and a 9.3 Barrel %. Angel Stadium boasts the highest Park Factor on the slate for hitters, and the Angels are projected for a healthy 4.9 runs.
