The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Dejounte Murray has been the better ceiling point guard play lately, but Stephen Curry tops him tonight in this matchup against the Bucks. A main reason why is the 3-point shot. Curry leads the league by making 4.3 3-pointers per game this season. The Bucks allow the most 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made per game. Curry has unlimited range, but should get several open looks from behind the arc. This game also has the second-highest total on the slate at 232 points as the Bucks rank sixth in Pace.
Curry is coming off of a 34-point night where he also had nine rebounds in their road victory over the Nuggets. It was his first game since the All-Star break having a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings. This is certainly the matchup to keep the momentum going.
Top Value: Brandon Williams vs. Washington Wizards – $6,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers have put together some pretty disgusting starting lineups lately, but one positive has been the play of point guard Brandon Williams. The price tag on DraftKings is out of control, but on FanDuel Williams still has a 97% Bargain Rating. Anfernee Simons remains out, which solidifies the playing time for Williams. He will also play solid minutes regardless of if the game is competitive. He has averaged 30 minutes per game in their last two games despite their average margin of loss being 40.5 points.
It is no surprise that the Trail Blazers have the lowest implied total on the slate at 105.75 points. However, it is nice to see that they are only 7.5-point home underdogs against the Wizards tonight. They haven’t kept a game close since Simons and Jusuf Nurkic were injured. Prioritize Williams on FanDuel, where he is popping in our Tournament Model as the best value on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
The Jazz lost to the Spurs on the road last night by two points, but Donovan Mitchell had another solid game, finishing with 24 points, seven rebounds and six assists. He has really been impressive from long distance this season as he is averaging a career-high 3.5 made 3-pointers per game, which ranks third in the league. Mitchell is also tied with DeMar DeRozan on this slate for the most field goal attempts with 20.2 per game. The opportunity will also jump as the Jazz are without Bojan Bogdanovic tonight.
Mitchell and the Jazz are 10-point home favorites tonight, which is the largest on the slate. They are implied for a slate-high 120.75 points, and we know a lot of the points will be coming from Mitchell. The Kings rank 28th in Defensive Rating and seventh in Pace, allowing 115.2 points per game which ranks second-highest in the league. Mitchell is tough to ignore at this price on both sites.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Sticking with the Jazz, if the salary for Mitchell is too tough to get, Jordan Clarkson is still relatively cheap and provides a good source of value on this slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Clarkson continues to have an extremely high usage off the bench as he contends for another 6th Man of the Year Award. The salary doesn’t make much sense for how consistent Clarkson has been this season. Over his last seven games since the All-Star break, Clarkson is averaging 25.2 DraftKings points per game.
Using our On/Off Tool, Clarkson has played by far the most minutes of anyone on the Jazz when Bogdanovic is off the floor. He has a 28.7% usage rate per game during this scenario, which provides upside in this matchup against the Kings. The Jazz should route the Kings, which will provide a bit of a bump to Clarkson in the fourth quarter. He is too cheap on both sites in this matchup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
In his 13th season, DeMar DeRozan is averaging a career-high 28.1 points per game while shooting 50.1% from the field and a career-high 35.4% from behind the arc. Despite his dominance, the Bulls have struggled lately, losing five of their last six games with their only victory coming against the Pistons. DeRozan may be asked to do much more tonight as Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are both listed as questionable. If both players are out, it will be hard to ignore DeRozan on both sites at this salary.
The Cavaliers present an extremely tough matchup as they allow a league-best 103.7 points per game. The Cavaliers rank fourth in Defensive Rating and 25th in Pace this season, making it very difficult on their opponents to get anything going. However, their Defensive Rating dips without Jarrett Allen in the lineup and the Bulls are three-point home favorites. Monitor the news on LaVine and Vucevic. If both are out. it will be tough to ignore DeRozan on this slate given the upside and usage he will have.
Top Value: Josh Richardson at Denver Nuggets – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Value is a little tough to come by on this slate, but Josh Richardson is quite cheap and could be in the starting lineup tonight if the injury situation plays out in his favor. Richardson has started two of his last three games with the Spurs and has averaged 26.1 DraftKings points while playing 32 minutes per game. The Spurs have several questionable wings tonight in Doug McDermott, Josh Primo and Romeo Langford. This is another situation where monitoring the news will be very valuable.
This game has the largest total on the slate at 234.5 points as the Spurs are five-point home favorites. The Spurs are one game back of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, while they also got the monkey off their back with the Gregg Popovich becoming the NBA’s all-time wins leader a night ago. Richardson can get cooking from the perimeter. He is averaging 50% from behind the arc in seven games with the Spurs this season. Make sure he is starting before deploying him.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Golden State Warriors – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
The most expensive player on the slate is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. It is deserving as he has become a very consistent stud. Since the beginning of February, Giannis only has one game where he failed to score more than 52 DraftKings points. During that 14-game stretch, Giannis is averaging 63.6 DraftKings points per game. He has incredible upside with his points and rebounds and is a near lock to double-double every night. Giannis has proved he is worth the expensive salary.
This matchup with the Bucks and Warriors is going to be incredible to watch. The Warriors are one-point home favorites as this total is set at 232 points. The Warriors still have the second-best Defensive Rating in the league despite playing several games without their defensive stopper Draymond Green. They also allow the fifth-fewest points in the paint this season. That could be the deciding factor between Giannis and Nikola Jokic tonight. Can’t go wrong with either option on this slate.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Washington Wizards – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Another Trail Blazers starter who has some value on this slate, especially on FanDuel is Drew Eubanks. He is power forward-eligible on FanDuel which increases his value. Eubanks also remains at a very reasonable price on FanDuel. He has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games and has a 95% Bargain Rating. He has had a poor last two games, but he displayed his upside in the previous four games. Prioritize Eubanks on FanDuel, where he is one of the best values on the slate tonight.
The Wizards rank 21st in points allowed in the paint this season and are coming off a game where they gave up 56 against the Lakers. This game has a chance to be relatively close, which would be a surprise to Trail Blazers fans as they have gotten waxed basically every game since the All-Star break. They have lost six-straight games by an average of 32.3 points per game.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Toronto Raptors – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
It feels like immediate value whenever Nikola Jokic is not the highest-priced player on the slate. After a mediocre start post -All-Star Break (by his standards), Jokic is certainly back now. In three of his last four games, Jokic has topped 75 or more DraftKings points. During this last stretch, he is averaging a massive triple-double with 34.8 points, 14.3 rebounds and 10 assists per game. His scoring as well as his minutes played have increased lately. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. still out, it is the Jokic Show.
The Nuggets get a home matchup against the Raptors as 5.5-point favorites. The Raptors will do their best to slow this game down as they have the fifth-slowest Pace in the league. However, they simply don’t have the size to contend with Jokic in the paint. In their only matchup this season, Jokic had 28 points and 15 rebounds while shooting 10-of-16 from the field. Jokic has the top-two fantasy games this season where he had 93 and 95 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The best value on the slate according to our Model on DraftKings is Wizards center Daniel Gafford. Newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis is back and playing more minutes, but Gafford has continued to dominate the paint while still playing around 20 minutes per game. Gafford has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in seven of his last eight games. He has a great opportunity to showcase his talents in a great matchup against the poor Trail Blazers tonight.
The Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per game this season. As you can tell already, it gets worse for the defense the closer we get to where they are right now. Gafford is a very cheap way to get exposure to the Wizards, who are in one of the best matchups on the slate. He should threaten to double-double even in limited playing time tonight.
Photo Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Pictured: DeMar DeRozan
