The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. New York Knicks – $12,300 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
To say Luka has been on a roll recently is an understatement, as the fourth-year man has averaged a magnificent 38 points, 13 rebounds, eight dimes and three stocks over his last two outings, pulling down a career-best 16 boards in his last appearance.
Naturally, when Luka plays well, so do the Mavs. He sat against the Kings due to a toe injury, but that was sandwiched between wins over Utah and Golden State – not too shabby. He’s got a ceiling of nearly 80 fantasy points, and he’s averaged 55.5 fantasy points at home compared to 49.5 on the road this season.
Top Value: Brandon Williams at Utah Jazz – $5,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
B-Will went off in his first career start, totaling 27/8/2/4/1 against Minnesota on Monday. The Blazers were blown out, but Williams accounted for a third of his team’s points and shone as one of the few bright spots on the day.
Anfernee Simons is a GTD due to his lingering quad injury, so if he’s forced to sit, Williams should be in plenty of lineups. I’ll pay for him on DraftKings, but he’s unbelievably at the minimum salary on FanDuel. As a result, he’ll likely be uber-chalky on that site, but that’s some chalk I’m willing to eat.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
SGA is in the midst of one of the greatest streaks of his career. He’s scored at least 32 in six of seven games since returning to the lineup, and he’s averaged just under 70 fantasy points across his last two behind averages of 33.0 points, 11.0 assists, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 1.0 blocks.
Josh Giddey and Kenrich Williams remain out, Lu Dort is done for the season and the Thunder’s frontcourt is a complete mess. That can only mean one thing: SGA will carry an enormous load tonight against the Wolves. That matchup has a 231.5 over/under and provides a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and big Pace Differential. This is a no-brainer.
Note: SGA is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel.
Top Value: Cam Payne at Miami Heat – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Even at his current salary, Cam Payne is making a campaign (see what I did there?) to be one of the best values on the slate. He’s averaged 43.1 fantasy points across his last three thanks to averages of 19.3 points, 12.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 2.0 triples across 34.0 minutes in those three contests. With Chris Paul and Devin Booker out, it’s Payne’s world, and we’re just living in it.
Editor’s note: Booker could return Wednesday.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Houston Rockets – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
James sat Monday, and he’s a GTD again tonight due to a knee issue. The Lakers dropped another one against the Spurs in his absence, so there’s a good chance he plays through his injury to try and help the Lakers get a much-needed victory.
He averaged 25.7 points, 9.7 assists, 7.3 rebounds and 3.3 stocks in three prior games against the Rockets, including a 30-point triple-double the last time these two teams met in late December. The only way Los Angeles can get a win is with James doing incredible things, and I think that’s what happens tonight in a game between poor defensive teams.
Top Value: Aaron Wiggins at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The returns have been fairly minimal for Wiggins across his last two games, but he’s still played at least 30 minutes in both, and he should be in line for heavy playing time tonight as well. The Thunder are still without Josh Giddey and Kenrich Williams, and Lu Dort has been ruled out for the rest of the season. He’s priced near the site minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel and worth a risk with a projection of 28 minutes in this high-scoring affair.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Atlanta Hawks – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Giannis comes into this one having posted at least 60 fantasy points in six of his last eight appearances. He came close to that mark two games ago against the Suns but fouled out after 31 minutes. Tonight’s matchup with the Hawks figures to be high-scoring with an over/under of 236.5. He’s right up there in terms of ceiling with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, and Giannis has posted at least 65 fantasy points 15 times and at least 70 six times.
Top Value: Jaxson Hayes vs. Orlando Magic – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
New Orleans got rolled by Memphis last night, and Hayes understandably posted a fantasy dud. He averaged 10.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.0 blocks in six games prior to the blowout loss to Memphis, so there’s no reason to be scared off him tonight.
Hayes isn’t a guy to play in cash games, but his ceiling of over 40 fantasy points on both sites makes him an attractive tournament option. He’s got five games with over 30 fantasy points to his credit this season, and all of them have come since Jan. 1.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Sacramento Kings – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The only one laughing over the Nuggets’ last two games is the Joker, whose two monster triple-doubles have guided Denver to two more victories. In those two, he averaged a ridiculous 39.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 12.0 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.5 steals and 1.5 triples.
Tonight’s matchup with the Kings has a 237 over/under, the highest on the slate. Jokic has put up 65 fantasy points on Sacramento in two of three prior meetings, and I won’t bet against that happening tonight.
Top Value: Chris Boucher at San Antonio Spurs – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Malachi Flynn remains out and Fred VanVleet is a GTD. That could mean a second straight start for Boucher, who put up 21/7/1/3/1 in his last game out.
Our model projects Boucher to play 27 minutes tonight, and he’s averaged 33.1 fantasy points in 13 games with at least that many minutes this season. The matchup with the Spurs has a solid 228 over/under, good Opponent Plus/Minus and big Pace Differential. Boucher’s sub-$5k salary is huge for a guy who can rack up fantasy points in a hurry, thanks to his ability to rebound and block shots at a high level.
Note: Boucher is eligible at PF on DraftKings and PF/C on FanDuel.
