The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR continues its Florida swing this week as iconic TPC Sawgrass hosts THE PLAYERS Championship. The course is a tough par 72, measuring at 7,245 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
$9,000 and Above Price Range
Jon Rahm ($11,100 DraftKings)
Rahm has been in a major slump lately, having finished 17th, 21st, and 10th over his past three starts. That’s the level of play we expect from him, that finishing inside the top 20 in three straight events is considered a failure. The reigning U.S Open champ enters play this week a bit under the radar if that’s even possible. His struggles of late have come entirely on and around the greens, as his ball-striking has been otherworldly.
During this recent malaise (12 rounds), Rahm sits No.1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee, and SG: Ball-Striking, while ranking second in SG: Approach. He ranks 135th in SG: Around-the-Green in that same time frame. Do you know how hard it is to still rank No. 1 tee-to-green while being that bad around the green? Rahm is truly an alien. As we know, putting and short game are usually volatile, and I am fully expecting the Spaniard to bounce back in a big way this week.
He’s never missed a cut at TPC Sawgrass and finished T-12 and T-9 his last two years, respectively. There’s more than enough value on the board to start your cash teams with the world No. 1.
Justin Thomas ($10,400 DraftKings)
JT enters play this week, having posted five top-eight finishes over his last six starts. His greatness has become commonplace at this point, which we probably take for granted. He’s the defending PLAYERS champion, which usually comes with an asterisk as most defending champs do not do well in their title defense. I am not worried about such with JT, as he’s never once missed a cut at Sawgrass and has the discipline to not let stuff like that bother him.
Thomas did not have his best game at Genesis and still finished T-6, which is a scary thought for the rest of the field. He’s been absolutely crushing off the tee of late as well, which is a big key to his success as we know his iron play is second to maybe only Collin Morikawa. He has actually putt pretty well at Sawgrass over the years, gaining an average of 0.4 strokes per round.
I see no reason to not go back to him this week.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,200 DraftKings)
If you’ve been a long-time reader of mine, you know how bullish I’ve been on Scheffler. We all knew the maiden win was coming but what we did not realize is that the floodgates would officially open for this golf wunderkind. Scheffler followed up his win at the Waste Management with a T-7 at Riviera, no easy feat. In his very next start, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, gaining over five strokes on approach over the weekend at a course that looked worthy of a U.S Open.
It’s clear that winning events does nothing to affect the psyche of Scheffler, so we’ll hop right back on the wagon this week at a ridiculously cheap $9,200 price tag. DraftKings released pricing prior to the conclusion of the API, which is why we get Scottie at such a discount.
He missed the cut here last year by one stroke. However, in 2020 he opened with a first-round 68, which was good for T-7 before the event was canceled due to COVID. He’s absolutely locked in right now and is entering fade at your own risk territory.
$8,000 Price Range
Daniel Berger ($8,800 DraftKings)
Berger was incredible at the Honda before gagging the lead on Sunday to Sepp Straka. He still bagged another T-4, which was his third top-seven finish over his past five starts. He ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach over his past 48 rounds and has zero weaknesses in his game now that he’s figured out his around-the-green woes. We know he’s a wizard on Bermuda greens and has missed only one cut at this event in six starts while posting a pair of T-9s in the process.
His most recent came last year, and the year prior opened with a 68 before COVID struck. He’s playing the best golf of his career and is about $1,000 underpriced for his talent right now.
Berger makes for one of the safest cash plays on the board.
Shane Lowry ($8,000 DraftKings)
Lowry was right on the heels of forcing a playoff at the Honda until the skies opened up and mother nature showed her wrath. He ended up parring 18 and ceded the crown to Sepp Straka. However, the Irishman was incredible from Friday on, gaining over 10 strokes tee-to-green and over six on approach. If we take a real recent view, Lowry ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Ball-Striking, and Strokes Gained Total.
The former Open Champion finished in eighth place at Sawgrass a year ago, and with the way his game is clicking right now, a repeat performance could be in order. It also helps that the current weather forecast calls for a rainy, windy affair which is right up the Irishman’s alley.
At just $8,000 on DraftKings, he’s a massive value in this spot.
$7,000 Price Range
Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,700 DraftKings)
Fitz is coming off his third top 10 in a row last week at the API, gaining six strokes on the field over the weekend in extremely difficult conditions. He made only eight bogeys on the week, which is incredible when you consider Paul Casey made five bogeys and three doubles on Sunday alone.
During this stretch of great play, Fitz has been a well-oiled machine, ranking inside the top 30 in every ball-striking category, as well as putting. He’s made three consecutive cuts at TPC Sawgrass, including a T-9 last year. Despite having yet to win on the PGA TOUR, Fitz has seven career Euro Tour victories, and it’s only a matter of time before he bags his first stateside.
This would not be a bad place for that to occur, as he thrives on Pete Dye designed Bermuda tracks. He’s probably the most underpriced player in this field and should be a cash game staple.
Corey Conners ($7,300 DraftKings)
After his poor showing at Riviera, Conners is back to being a ball-striking maestro, having gained over 10 strokes tee-to-green last week at the API. This puts him No. 1 in this field in that department over his past four rounds. The good news is his around-the-green play was also pristine last week and has been for a few events now, which bodes well for his prospects at TPC Sawgrass this week.
Conners has gone T-41 and T-7, respectively in his two starts at THE PLAYERS and was even T-7 after round one back in 2020. He clearly likes the layout here and is way too cheap for his upside. He will be a cash game lock for me this week, bar none.
Si Woo Kim ($7,300 DraftKings)
The Pete Dye specialist himself has been playing some incredibly consistent golf for some time now. He’s made eight of his previous nine cuts and has eight top-26 finishes in that stretch as well, which include some no-cut events. In this stretch, the South Korean ranks 12th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth off the tee, and sixth in overall ball-striking. Kim has an immaculate record at TPC Sawgrass, having made all five of his cuts, which obviously include his win here in 2017.
He finished T-9 here last year and shot a first-round 65 in 2020, which had him in a tie for second before the event got canceled. Simply put, the man loves this course and event, and there’s absolutely no reason to not play him in all formats this week.
Two other players I will mention briefly who are firmly in cash game consideration are Tom Hoge ($7,000) and Brian Harman ($6,900.) Hoge has put together an incredible 2022 thus far after his win at Pebble Beach. He also posted a runner-up at the WMPO and T-4 at the RSM. He’s playing the best golf of his career and is underpriced this week. In addition, he’s three for three in made cuts at TPC Sawgrass with a pair of top-30 finishes.
Harman, since this event was moved from May to March, has gone T-8 and T-3, respectively. We know he can catch fire with his putter and that Bermuda is his favorite surface. However, it’s been his ball-striking taking center stage of late, as the Georgia Bulldog ranks sixth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Ball-Striking over his past eight rounds.
At $6,900, he makes for a terrific punt if you’d prefer to jam in multiple studs this week.
