The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Utah Jazz – $12,200 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
After missing the last game due to a toe injury, Luka Doncic returns in a home matchup against the Jazz. The Mavericks have won 10 of their last 12 games and come into this matchup as slight home favorites. The Pace of this game will be extremely slow as the Jazz rank 21st in Pace, while the Mavericks rank dead last. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this game has the lowest total on the slate at 217.5 points. However, there is so much value on this slate that paying up for Doncic will be relatively easy.
Doncic continues to lead the league in usage rate at 37.3% per game. He is coming off an incredible game against the Warriors, where he had nearly a triple-double with 41 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists. Doncic shot 15-26 from the field and had 71.5 DraftKings points. That was his 10th game this season with more than 70 DraftKings points. Despite there being so many fantastic pay-up options on this slate, Doncic leads them all with the highest ceiling. It is a tough matchup, but this is still an excellent spot for Doncic.
Top Value: Brandon Williams at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers have gotten obliterated the last four games losing by an average of 26.7 points per game. They are 15-point road underdogs against the Timberwolves, who they lost by 14 points to in their last game. They will also be without Anfernee Simons in this contest as another Trail Blazers player goes on the injury list. The Blazers are basically running out of bodies to field a team. It has gotten so bad that Brandon Williams will start at point guard and play as many minutes as he can handle.
Williams leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus for both DraftKings and FanDuel. No one is particularly close either, as he is projected to play 33 minutes and is priced at or near the minimum across the industry. Williams has scored double-digit points in each of his last four games. He is averaging 14.8 points per game during that time while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42.9% from behind the arc. They will likely get blown out, but Williams is the best value on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Another player who missed his last game due to injury maintenance but is back tonight is newly acquired 76ers guard James Harden. He has provided a much-needed spark to the guard position, averaging 26.8 points, 12 assists, and 7.5 rebounds during his brief tenure with the 76ers. He shot a ridiculous 59.2% from the field and 50% from downtown during that time. The 76ers have yet to lose with Harden in the lineup, which will be put to the test against the 39-25 Bulls on Monday.
Despite having such a good record, the Bulls have struggled defensively, ranking 20th in Defensive Rating. That number has dropped to 24th over the last 15 days as they still try to figure out their defense without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. This game has the third-highest total on the slate at 231.5 points, and the 76ers are favored by seven points at home. You can’t go wrong with Harden or Joel Embiid. This slate is screaming to play stars and scrubs, and Harden is an excellent option at the top.
Top Value: Jordan Poole at Denver Nuggets – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
One of the best sources of value on Monday will come from the Warriors, who are playing without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Gary Payton II. The player who pops the most is undoubtedly Jordan Poole. Even with most of those players in the lineup, Poole has had back-to-back games scoring 23 points. He has taken a significant leap in his third season, averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists. Poole is one of several Warriors players in play tonight.
It is impossible to look at our Tournament Model and not see multiple Warriors players popping as value. They are eight-point road underdogs, but the way they play will make this game competitive. Poole is by far the most talented player left standing for the Warriors, and his usage rate will be sky-high. Using our On/Off Tool, Poole has increased his usage rate by a team-high +9.5% with Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins off the floor this season. He is a staple for cash game lineups.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at San Antonio Spurs – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Is LeBron James finally back? He is coming off of a season-high 56 points against the Warriors, where he shot 19-31 from the field and 6-11 from behind the arc. James had 77.5 DraftKings points, which was his second-highest output this season. Before that game, he had a very pedestrian stretch where he averaged 46.6 DraftKings points per game in four games since the All-Star Break. James said after the game he was fueled by the desperate spot that the Lakers are in right now.
Before their last victory, the Lakers had lost seven of their previous eight games. Maybe they will get on a bit of a run with a favorable schedule coming up. The Lakers have opened up as two-point road underdogs against the Spurs tonight. This game has the highest total at 234.5 points as both the Lakers and Spurs rank in the top five in Pace this season. Anthony Davis is still out for the Lakers, which also boosts James’ ceiling. This is another great matchup for James to fill up the stat sheet.
Top Value: Jonathan Kuminga at Denver Nuggets – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The second Warriors value play that is popping is the rookie Jonathan Kuminga. The upside that Kuminga has shown this season has been incredible. He earned a starting spot with the Warriors and hasn’t looked back. Using our On/Off Tool, with Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins all out, Kuminga is right behind Poole in every statistic. His salary is a little cheaper, but he is another Warriors player that will be very difficult to ignore on this slate. The more minutes, the better for Kuminga.
Kuminga has started in seven games this season, and he’s averaged 12.9 points and 4.9 rebounds while shooting 55.4% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. During that time, he is also averaging 22.9 DraftKings points per game. He has the upside for even more as our model has Kuminga projected to play 28 minutes tonight. The Nuggets rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint. The high-flying Kuminga will have many chances at another excellent fantasy performance.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Sacramento Kings – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Picking a ceiling power forward on this slate is quite difficult because all of these players have legit question marks. Paying down a little bit to Julius Randle is the preferred option, especially in this matchup. The Knicks are coming off a blowout victory last night over the Clippers and will stay in California to play the Kings on Monday. Randle played 29 minutes but only had 24.5 DraftKings points. He has had a negative Plus/Minus in five-straight games. It has been ugly, but this is an excellent spot to bounce back.
Despite playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, the Knicks are implied to score 113 points. The Kings rank 28th in Defensive Ranking and seventh in Pace this season. They have allowed the most points in the paint in the league with 51.8 per game. Randle also has a history of playing well against Domantas Sabonis. In seven games against Sabonis over the past two years, Randle is averaging a double-double with 19.1 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. Randle is best suited for FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Trendon Watford at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Another Trail Blazers value option is power forward Trendon Watford. The minutes have been ramping up for Watford even though he is still coming off the bench. He has played 30 and 32 minutes in his last two games and has stuffed the stat sheet, averaging a double-double with 12.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and five assists per game. Watford has surpassed 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and stands out as a superb value, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
As previously mentioned, the Trail Blazers are running it back against the Timberwolves after losing by 14 points in their last game. Watford went nuclear in this matchup previously, recording 12 points and 14 rebounds for 39 DraftKings points. The Timberwolves’ interior defense has historically been very poor with Karl-Anthony Towns at center. Watford thrived in this spot last game, and there is no reason to think he won’t do that again tonight. Prioritize Watford on FanDuel, where he is far too cheap.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,600 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Well, it is safe to say that Nikola Jokic is back! He exploded last night, recording a massive triple-double with 46 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. He shot 16-22 from the field and had a career-high 95.0 DraftKings points! Jokic has had a disappointing start after the All-Star Break, but the last game took away any doubts about his ceiling with DeMarcus Cousins now on board with the Nuggets. He is the highest-priced player on DraftKings, but his price dropped on FanDuel, making him once again a significant priority.
Jokic gets a superb matchup against the Warriors, who are resting most of their starting five. Against the Warriors this season, Jokic is averaging 28.5 points and 18 rebounds per game. He leads the league with a career-high 1.83 DraftKings points per minute. Back-to-back ceiling games may be tough to do, but if anyone can do it, it would be Jokic. Prioritize him on FanDuel given his 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
As you can tell, the Trail Blazers and Warriors are where to look for value. Outside of the Warriors and teammate Brandon Williams, Drew Eubanks leads the way in projected Plus/Minus. He is also the second-highest rated player in our model on DraftKings. Eubanks will draw the start once again for the injured Jusuf Nurkic and is projected to play 28 minutes. Over the last three games, Eubanks is averaging nearly a double-double with 13 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 26.7 DraftKings points per game.
Eubanks fouled out in his most recent game against this same Timberwolves team, which limited his playing time and upside. He played 28 minutes and recorded 13 points and eight rebounds while shooting 6-7 from the field. Like Watford, Eubanks is way too cheap on FanDuel compared to DraftKings. He has a 95% Bargain Rating and has averaged a +9.7 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his last four games. He makes for another fantastic salary saver and will command significant ownership on this slate.
