The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Fox has looked like a completely different player following his eight-game layoff and the Kings’ big moves at the trade deadline. He’s scored at least 20 points in eight straight and averaged 27.0 points, 6.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 stocks in that span.
He’s double-doubled in two straight while averaging 51.9 fantasy points, yet his salary remains depressed. Take advantage of this comically-low price tag.
Top Value: Cameron Payne vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
As I was writing up this article, it was announced that Devin Booker has entered the league’s health and safety protocols. Time to get chalky with Cam Payne!
Booker joins Chris Paul on the sidelines, and Payne should play a major role tonight if he’s indeed ready to re-join the lineup. Aaron Holiday is an attractive option here, too, as is Cam Johnson, but our model likes Payne, so he’s who we’ll highlight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. New York Knicks – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Unlike Jim Halpert in the later episodes of The Office, things are always bad when you go to work in Philly. Just ask James Harden, who’s had massive success in just two games with his new team.
The Beard has averaged 28.0 points, 19.0 assists, 4.0 boards, and 2.5 swipes, good for over 64 fantasy points. He’s fresh off a monstrous 29/16/10 triple-double Sunday in which he added five swipes. This isn’t the same guy we saw in Brooklyn, and if Harden continues to play the way he did in his peak Houston days, the Eastern Conference is in trouble. Make sure to fit him into some lineups tonight.
Top Value: Keon Johnson at Phoenix Suns – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Keon Johnson drew his first NBA start Sunday and logged a modest four points, four rebounds, an assist and two steals across 26 minutes. That production isn’t anything to write home about, but at the bare minimum price on FanDuel and $100 shy of it on DraftKings, why not take a chance on a guy who put up 16 fantasy points a night ago and could start against a depleted Suns backcourt?
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Jimmy Buckets has averaged just a hair under 40 fantasy points across his last seven contests, so there’s a good chance he’ll be a less popular option on DraftKings. It’s hard to imagine he won’t be chalky at his ridiculously comical $8.4k price tag on FanDuel, though.
In the aforementioned seven-game span, Butler has averaged 44.2 fantasy points on the road compared to just 35.7 at home. That bodes well for his performance tonight as Miami heads to Milwaukee for this marquee Eastern Conference showdown.
Top Value: C.J. Elleby at Phoenix Suns – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
6.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.5 stocks in nine straight starts. These averages include a couple of complete duds, but Elleby has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in four games, 25 fantasy points in three and 30 fantasy points in one. Elleby should be in the starting five again tonight, where he’ll face a Suns backcourt without Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Over his last four regular-season games against the Heat (two in 21-22 and two in 20-21), Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged just 16.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists. His ceiling is higher than any other PF on this slate, but I’m not digging this matchup, so I’m calling an audible.
Sabonis has averaged 18.6 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.4 stocks while double-doubling in all but one contest in seven games since arriving in Sacramento. He’s been good for 43.8 fantasy points per contest, but he’s eclipsed 50 fantasy points twice and has a 60-point ceiling tonight against the Pels. It’s tough to fade him at a sub-$10k salary.
Note: Sabonis is eligible at PF/C on FanDuel and C on DraftKings
Top Value: Trey Lyles at New Orleans Pelicans – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Lyles went for 24/6/2 across 31 minutes in the starting lineup Monday, and he’s excelled when given substantial playing time. Our model projects him for 28 minutes tonight and in six games this season (one with Sacramento, five with Detroit) with at least that many minutes, he averaged 19.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 stocks, good for 37.8 fantasy points. This guy can legitimately pay off 10x value or more.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The Joker is coming off another impressive month, as he averaged 23.4 points, 14.0 rebounds, 8.8 dimes and 1.6 stocks in the month of February. Tonight, he gets an Oklahoma City team that has been a dream of a matchup for opposing bigs all season.
Jokic will have one of the best Opponent Plus/Minuses on the slate and an impressive Pace Differential. He’s much cheaper on FanDuel, where he should be one of the slate’s most popular high-dollar options. Jokic gets a 97% Bargain Rating on that site.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Phoenix Suns – $4,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Drewbanks went for 13 points, 10 rebounds and two assists Sunday in his second straight start for Portland. The Blazers have employed a puzzling timeshare between he, Greg Brown and Trendon Watford, but Eubanks looks like the guy to use in DFS lineups. At such a low price point, he doesn’t need to do a ton to provide value, so we’ll be hoping for another modest double-double.
