The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR continues its Florida swing this week as Bay Hill Club & Lodge hosts the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The course is a tough par-72 measuring at 7,466 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
$9,000 and Above Price Range
Will Zalatoris ($9,400 DraftKings)
This might be a hot take, but I personally believe Zalatoris just might be the third-best iron player in the world behind Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. The 25-year old ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and has two top-six finishes over his past three starts.
We love targeting Willy Z at non-birdie-fest type of events where his poor putting is less magnified. Thankfully, Bay Hill demands precise iron play to contend, which is basically all I needed to hear. Zalatoris has actually been close to a neutral putter over his past 24 rounds as well, which is a scary thought for everyone else in the field this week because if he gains anything on the greens he’s on the short list to win.
After a T-10 here last year on debut, I’m expecting another huge week out of this golf wunderkind.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,200 DraftKings)
I used to have a rule with Hideki Matsuyama to only play him when he was priced in the $8,000 range in stronger field events and fade him above $9,000 in lesser fields. This was before his breakthrough win at Augusta, as he was always too inconsistent to trust at such high tags. I mention this because I usually like to follow this rule with Fitzpatrick as he’s won exactly zero times on the PGA TOUR. The sweet spot for him is in the lower $8,000 range like he was last week before he withdrew.
I will be breaking my own rule this week as everything seems to be coming together for the 27-year old. Despite not being the longest of hitters, he’s incredible off the tee, ranking fifth in that category over his past 48 rounds in this field. We know he is lights out on Bermuda greens, so it will simply come down to how he hits his irons.
Prior to his WD last week, he’s been crushing on approach, sitting ninth in this field over his past eight rounds. Combine all that with his elite history at Bay Hill (runner up and three additional top-13 finishes across his past five years), and he has the makings of a rock-solid cash game play.
Adam Scott ($9,000 DraftKings)
Scott is one of the most consistent cut makers on the PGA TOUR, having missed just two weekends dating back to last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s coming in on fire, posting a T-4 at the Genesis on the heels of a pair of top-10s on the Euro Tour.
A once huge weakness in his game, the putter, has since become one of his biggest strengths, as the Aussie ranks sixth in this field in SG: Putting across his past 48 rounds. Huge kudos to him for turning that around, as it really becomes so easy to trust him when you know he’s no longer going to make you pull your hair out after missing four-foot birdie looks. He hasn’t played Bay Hill in a couple of years, but he does have a T-3 and T-12 on his resume at this event. We know he’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR, which should lead him to another made cut and likely top-20 finish this week, pretty good for just $9,000.
$8,000 Price Range
Max Homa ($8,700 DraftKings)
Homa is a bit pricey for my liking, but it’s certainly warranted right now as he’s coming in on a heater. The California kid has posted top-15 finishes in three of his past four events, including a T-10 at a very tough Riviera in his last start. His game has been a well-oiled machine during this stretch, as he ranks 20th in SG: Ball-Striking, third in SG: Putting, and 11th in total strokes gained over his past 12 rounds.
He’s fifth on TOUR this season in Par-5 scoring average as well, which will be extremely important this week as Bay Hill features four of them. In two career starts at the API, Homa has gone T-24, T-10, and with the way he’s been playing of late, it’s fair to expect another similar result this week.
Jason Kokrak ($8,400 DraftKings)
Putting aside the recent Saudi Golf League nonsense that Kokrak has been linked to, he’s actually been playing some great golf. He’s coming off a T-26 at the Genesis and before that went T-17 at the Sony Open. His ball-striking has been a little off of late, but he’s been putting very well and boasts some of the best course history in this field. The big fella has four top-10s and a pair of top 20s in eight starts since 2014 at this event
Kokrak is a veteran that knows how to get around tough golf courses, and he is very reasonably priced this week at just $8,400, putting him firmly in cash game consideration.
Paul Casey ($8,300 DraftKings)
DraftKings refuses to price up Casey no matter how good his ball-striking has been, and boy has it been good. Casey sits No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach across his past 48 rounds. This is a field that features the likes of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, etc, just to show the class he’s in. Casey also ranks fourth in SG: Total over this stretch, as well, and his game is firing on all cylinders.
Having posted two-top 10s at this event over the years — including last year — everything is setting up for another strong showing from the Englishman this week. He is simply too cheap at just $8,300, so let’s make our opponents pay for not rostering the best value on the board.
Keith Mitchell ($8,100 DraftKings)
Mitchell is on absolute fire right now, having finished T-12 or better in five of his past six starts. In that stretch, he ranks ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in SG: Ball-Striking, and seventh in SG: Total. He has a pair of top-five finishes at Bay Hill over his past three years, as well. It appears there is no stopping this train right now, and DraftKings mispriced him by a few hundred dollars at least.
We know he will hold his own on the greens, as they don’t call him “Bermuda Keith” for nothing. He’s likely to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate, but there is literally zero merit to fading him right now, so let’s eat this chalk and move on.
Cameron Tringale ($8,000 DraftKings)
I am a sucker for Tringale as he’s really taken serious strides these past couple of years and become a legit PGA TOUR pro who we can count on week in and week out. He’s posted three top-13 finishes over his past five starts, including a T-3 at Torrey Pines. He’s got the best short-game in this field right now, ranking No. 1 in SG: Around the Green over his past 12 rounds, while sitting 10th on approach in the same time frame. That’s a deadly combo.
Tringale has missed just one cut at this event in five starts and has finished T-31 or better in three of the other four. His price is extremely palatable at just $8,000 and he’s in great form. He will most assuredly make the weekend with massive upside beyond that. Can’t ask for much more than that in cash games.
$7,000 Price Range
Maverick McNealy ($7,800 DraftKings)
I have a serious love affair going with Mav McNealy, as I truly believe he’s one of the game’s next big stars. He has not missed a cut since the Shriners and has finished inside the top-33 in eight of his previous 10 starts. He’s been a beacon of consistency, and I don’t see that slowing down this week at a track where he’s made the cut in two of three starts.
McNealy ranks 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds in this field. Stats like those should warrant a price tag a bit more expensive than just $7,800 on DraftKings. McNealy is one of the best value plays on the slate this week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700 DraftKings)
I texted my cousin on Saturday afternoon that I’ll be taking a break from playing Bez after he had just finished up a 36-hole birdie-less stretch. But then he came out Sunday and fired a bogey-free 66, finishing in a tie for 25th place. Obviously, I am firmly pulled back in. I have paper hands, and for that I am sorry.
We know the South African has a serious proclivity for making the weekend, which is why we love targeting him in cash games. It’s even tougher to fade Bez this week when you look at his course history, as in two starts at the API, he’s gone T-18, T-7. At just $7,700 with his Bermuda putting chops, let’s hop right back on the wagon this week and hope for another made weekend.
