The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
A coaching change appears to have helped Connor McDavid regain his scoring touch as the three-time Pearson Trophy-winner has 14 points in nine games under Jay Woodcroft. Those numbers could improve further against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday.
McDavid’s advanced metrics support that more good showings are on the horizon for the 25-year-old. Over the past eight games, McDavid has attempted four or more shots in six of those, with a rolling average of 4.9 shots per game. It’s quality, not just quantity, that substantiates sustained output, as McDavid remains the Edmonton Oilers on-ice leader in scoring and high-danger chances.
The Flyers have a poor track record of getting torched by their opponents, allowing four or more goals in six of their past seven games. McDavid and company can extend that to seven of eight.
Top Value
Nico Hischier ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The New Jersey Devils’ offense is proliferating right now, scoring 30 goals over their past six games. That could be disastrous for a Columbus Blue Jackets squad that tends to get run over in their own zone.
The Jackets have given up at least 10 high-danger chances at five-on-five in seven of their past eight games, a metric that Nico Hischier can exploit. The Swiss forward has points in four of his past six games, including three multi-point games over that span. Increased output might still come from Hischier, as he remains below his expected goals-for rating while being on the ice for the fourth-most scoring chances and sixth-most quality opportunities this season.
One of the most impressive distinctions for Hischier is that he’s put up those terrific offensive metrics while starting most of his shifts in the defending zone. Hischier remains undervalued on both platforms and is worth including as a low-cost, high-potential option.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($6,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
It’s an ideal betting spot for the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday night, as they host a New York Islanders team playing their third road game over the last four nights. That could mean big things from Mikko Rantanen, who continues to drive the Avs offense.
Rantanen has points in six straight games, totaling two goals and eight assists over that sample. The Finnish forward is second only to Cale Makar in nearly every offensive category, sitting second in shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. However, Rantanen separates himself from his teammates through his ratings, posting the best ratios in the three aforementioned metrics. That has helped Rantanen to a 67.4% expected goals-for rating, third-best in the Chell among all players with at least 350 minutes played.
This is a tough spot for the Islanders, and Rantanen’s salary on DK is almost criminally underpriced. We have no qualms about calling Rantanen the top play on the wing.
Top Value
Reilly Smith ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Vegas Golden Knights have been snake bitten over their past couple of games, scoring three total goals despite some lofty scoring metrics. We’re expecting it all to come together for Reilly Smith and the Knights against the San Jose Sharks.
As a team, the Golden Knights have attempted 63 scoring and 30 high-danger opportunities at five-on-five over the last two games. Smith has been a significant contributor, putting 10 shots on net over across those outings. Those performances are akin to how his season has gone, as he’s been limited to just one assist, despite the strong performances.
We’re expecting growth from Smith over his coming games. This season, the 30-year-old is below his expected totals and ratings, which is best reflected in his 0.978 PDO. Smith comes at a discounted salary and isn’t worth passing up.
Defense
Top Play
Cale Makar ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
For many of the same reasons we included Rantanen as a top play, we are also including Cale Makar. Tonight’s circumstances favor the Avs, and Makar is a top option on defense.
Defensively, nobody does it better than Makar. The odds-on favorite to win the Norris Trophy, Makar has metrics that put him above most other rearguards in the league. Among defensemen who have played at least 350 minutes, Makar has the best shots ratio, best Corsi rating, and best scoring chance percentage, culminating with the best expected goals-for rating in the NHL.
The former Brooks Bandit has played more than 26 minutes in each of the past two games and comes into tonight’s inter-conference battle on an eight-game point streak totaling 12 assists over that span. Makar can amplify his metrics against the Isles.
Top Value
Evan Bouchard ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
When the Oilers drafted Evan Bouchard 10th overall in the 2018 draft, they hoped his offensive skills would carry over to the NHL level. Four seasons into his professional career, drafting Bouchard is starting to pay off.
Consistency remains a bit of an issue for Bouchard, but points tend to come in bunches for the 22-year-old. This season, the former London Knight has seven-multipoint games, totaling 27 points in 53 games. One of Bouchard’s biggest assets is his shot from the point, which he has used to deliver nine goals this season while spending time on the Oilers’ powerplay.
Bouchard has put seven shots on target over the past three games and is due for a breakout performance after being held pointless over his last five games. We like his chances for a big outing against the Flyers.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Another Tampa Bay Lightning game, another night Andrei Vasilevskiy projects as a top goaltending option. On Tuesday, Tampa hosts the Ottawa Senators, setting Vasilevskiy and the Bolts up for another strong showing.
The Lightning have been one of the best defensive teams again this season, and that’s illustrated over their recent schedule. Tampa has limited four of their past five opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and three of their past five to 22 or fewer scoring chances. That structured defensive play has again allowed Vasilevskiy to thrive, as the Russian netminder has a 92.1% save percentage and 14.2 goals saved above average.
The Sens have attempted more than eight high-danger and 22 scoring chances once over their past five road games. That’s not going to be enough to knock Vasilevskiy off his game.
Elvis Merzlikins ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
It’s been an up and down year for Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins. The Latvian goalie has middling statistics, but there’s a dichotomy to Merzlikins’ stats that makes him a value play tonight. Merzlikins is much better at home.
The 27-year-old is 10-6-1 at home with a 91.7% save percentage and 2.98 goals-against average, compared to 8-8-0 with an 88.8% save percentage and 3.91 goals-against average as the visitor. Merzlikins is coming off a 37-save performance against the Pittsburgh Penguins last time out, his only home game over his previous six starts.
The Jackets can use home ice to their advantage and take advantage of a tired Devils’ team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. A strong outing from Merzlikins would go a long way to helping the Jackets secure victory.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are a few teams with solid stacking upside on tonight’s slate, but we’re highlighting the Lightning as the notable lineup against the Senators.
Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have been two of the best forwards for the Bolts this season. Kuch and Points rank one-two in expected goals-for percentage across all strengths, and their success correlates well as they skate on the top line and powerplay unit together. On defense, Victor Hedman is the Lightning’s do-it-all defenseman, and the veteran blueliner is having a career year. The former second-overall selection is on pace for the best Corsi and expected goals-for ratings of his career. As discussed, Andrei Vasilevskiy presents with tremendous upside yet again, and he remains one of the best goaltending options out there.
The betting market reflects our confidence in the Lightning, as they have been bought up to -400 favorites.
