The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mika Zibanejad ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The center position is stacked with good plays today, so we should be looking for value to help us separate and make some decisions. Of the group, Mike Zibanejad looks the most underpriced as he comes in at just $7,000 on DraftKings. Zibanejad and the Rangers are coming off longer than expected all-star break but should be in better form against a Detroit team who rates out as one of the top matchups on this slate.
The center put up some very productive fantasy performances right before New York’s hiatus and rates out sixth today in the Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs. Detroit has allowed over four goals per game in their last four starts and given up the third-most quality scoring chances on the year. Take the upper-tier value at center and build around the Rangers star.
Top Value
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,900 – wing FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Oilers’ offense has started to percolate as the team has responded nicely to a coaching change. While Ryan Nugent- Hopkins has been moved down to a third-line role, he’s maintained his position as a main cog on the Oilers PP1 and has averaged over 20.0 minutes of ice time over his last three games.
Hopkins rates out strongly in the Player Ratings on FantasyLabs and also sits with the best Ceiling Projection of anyone under $5,000 on DraftKings. The matchup with the Ducks also looks strong as they’ve tailed off defensively of late and have allowed 3.5 goals per game over their last six starts. Nugent-Hopkins is a great way to get a piece of an Oilers offense that looks revitalized and ready to churn out bigger fantasy games.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Conner ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Jets offense has piled up 15 goals in their last four games and heads into a tasty matchup with the Kraken that should yield more fruit. Targeting the Jets is generally relatively easy for daily fantasy hockey. They have a couple of big names who put out consistent production and a bunch of players who rarely do much.
Kyle Conner is easily the most reliable of those big names, and he comes into this slate with the best Ceiling Projection at wing in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model. Conner projects out in the top 10% in Corsi Rating and top 1% in Shots on goal (and attempts) at his position over the last month (per the Trends tool).
He’s only failed to grab less than 10.0 DraftKings points once in his last 10 starts and makes for a perfect pay-up target today.
Top Value
Evander Kane ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
Evander Kane has integrated himself quickly into the Oilers offense, grabbing six points and three goals through his first eight games with his new club. The beleaguered winger remains underpriced considering the top-six minutes he’s been issued from his first game with Edmonton. He will skate alongside Leon Draisaitl again, who rates out as a top-two play at center.
Kane might be the best pure value on the slate if we’re going strictly by the FantasyLabs Projections. He’s third in Player Ratings at wing but rates out seventh in Ceiling Projections at his position. There’s little reason to fade the high-volume shooter, especially in a decent matchup at home where the Oilers have a substantial 4.0 implied team total.
Defense
Top Play
Zach Werenski ($7,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) @ Chicago Blackhawks
The Blue Jackets offense is viable against Chicago, which remains a bottom-10 team in most defensive categories. That includes the penalty-kill, where they own the fifth-lowest efficiency. That’s great for a player like Zach Werenski, who makes his living on the power-play. He’s landed three of his seven goals this year with the man advantage.
Werenski plays all of the big minutes for Columbus, who has seen their offense hit a higher gear with the return of Patrik Laine. Werenski rates out with a top-five Ceiling Projections on both sites and has an excellent Player Rating on FanDuel at under $7,000. The Blue Jackets are a team you should be looking to stack today.
Top Value
Nate Schmidt ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Jets skaters are all in a great spot against Seattle, who continues to be a bottom-five team in terms of goals allowed and has slipped down to sixth-last in penalty-kill efficiency. Winnipeg doesn’t have a true stud on the back-end to target on defense, but there’s good value to be had in using a player from their top-four. Nate Schmidt has averaged 3.7 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games, and he’s grabbed points in four of his last five games as well.
Schmidt gets us some cheap power-play exposure to a team with a good top-unit and rates out as the player with the best Ceiling Projection at $4,000 or cheaper on DraftKings. The Jets don’t have great value targets at forward, but we can certainly use a defenseman like Schmidt to help keep costs down.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
We have what looks like a pricing error on the Rangers goalies today that begs up to take advantage. Igor Shesterkin is a -200 favorite on the moneyline, yet he comes in at under $7,000 on DraftKings. That makes him one of the cheapest starting goalies on the entire slate.
This price tag would be fine if Shesterkin were a fourth-stringer, but he’s one of the leading candidates for the Vezina this year. As you can guess, Shesterkin tops out as the best play at the goalie position. Expect higher ownership but don’t be afraid to take the free space.
Thatcher Demko ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) @ San Jose Sharks
There’s no goalie I like more for DFS than Thatcher Demko on this slate. He comes cheap on both sites and has now stopped 100 of the last 104 shots he’s faced. The Canucks still allow a decent number of shots on goal but take on a Sharks team that doesn’t have a ton of top-end finishers and has scored just 12 goals over their last six games.
Demko rates out very strongly in the projections, ranking second in Ceiling Projections on both sites despite having a sub-$8,000 salary. Target him across all formats.
Notable Stack
Oilers L1 – Conner McDavid – Zach Hyman – Jessie Puljujarvi
Blue Jackets L1 – Boone Jenner – Oliver Bjorkstrand – Patrik Laine
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Oilers’ top-line rates out strongly in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool. They were within three points of the top two projected lines, but their cheaper price tags make them the best value stack on the slate. This trio hasn’t always played together in 2021-2022, but we have seen Zach Hyman and Conner McDavid get on some serious fantasy heaters. McDavid looks like he’s heating up, scoring five points in his last three games. The excellent correlation we’re getting with a 4.0 implied team total makes using this top-line a great way to begin lineups.
The Blue Jackets top-line also looks like a solid value. They take on a Blackhawks team who is bottom-10 in goals allowed, penalty-kill efficiency, and quality scoring chances allowed. Columbus rated out as a top 10 stack today and also correlates well. All three members of this line also see power-play time together on the top unit for the Blue Jackets. Columbus is an excellent way to get good upside in your lineup at low prices.
