It all comes down to this. The NFL season wraps up with Super Bowl LVI Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET featuring a showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Billy Ward broke down which Lineup Optimizer rules to consider implementing for your optimizer runs.
Game Environment
The Bengals are technically the home team in this contest, but this game will play in the Rams’ home stadium. Does that have an impact? I’m not sure. There has only been one previous instance of a team playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium, and that was the Buccaneers last year. That obviously worked out for them, but I still don’t think there’s a true “home-field advantage.” It’s going to be more of a commercial crowd than anything else.
The betting line on this game currently lists the Rams as four-point favorites, and the line movement has been minimal since opening. It has fluctuated between Rams -3.5 and Rams -4.5, but most of the bets have come with the spread at four points. The Rams have also received the majority of the betting action, logging 58% of the tickets and 74% of the dollars.
The bigger line movement has come on the total. It opened at 49.5, but the under has seen strong sharp activity. The under has racked up 80% of the dollars on just 37% of the bets, which has caused the total to drop to just 48.5 points. That suggests this game might be a bit more defensive than the general public expects.
Studs
Cooper Kupp is the most expensive player in this contest, just like he has been in virtually every game this season. He put together one of the most impressive seasons in history for a receiver, leading the league in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947), and receiving touchdowns (16).
He’s shown no signs of slowing down in the postseason. He’s racked up at least 35.3 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, finishing with a combined 20 catches for 325 yards and three touchdowns.
There’s no reason to expect anything different vs. the Bengals. Kupp has been matchup-proof all season, but the Bengals grade out as a favorable matchup. They rank just 24th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA.
Unsurprisingly, Kupp stands out as the clear top play of the day in our NFL Models. He leads all players in median, ceiling, and floor projection, and he also owns the top projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He’s going to garner heavy ownership – especially in the premium spots – but it’s hard not to lock him into your lineups.
