The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,500 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
The highest-priced player on both sites is Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. How he is playing without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. has been incredible. Doncic has averaged nearly a triple-double with 34.8 points, 10.7 assists, and 9.5 rebounds per game. During that time, he has shot 51.3% from the field and averaged 69.3 DraftKings points per game, despite a game in which he only played 28 minutes due to having five fouls very early in the second half. His ceiling has been remarkable lately.
This matchup against the Clippers is a rematch from two nights ago in which the Mavericks won 112-105. Doncic was incredible as he scored 28 points while making seven 3-pointers in the FIRST quarter! He finished with a season-high 51 points and scored over 70 DraftKings points for the fourth time in six games. The Clippers are a solid defense, but Doncic is playing at an elite level.
Top Value: Facundo Campazzo at Toronto Raptors – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The Nuggets are on a back-to-back after losing to the Celtics last night. With Monte Morris in the concussion protocol, the Nuggets started Bones Hyland at point guard. After early foul trouble and poor play, it was Facundo Campazzo who closed out the game and played 29 minutes. He filled up the stat sheet with 14 points, four rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block. Campazzo finished with 28 DraftKings points while he is still priced at the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Monitor the news and starting lineup to see which guard will start for the Nuggets tonight. Both Hyland and Campazzo will be great plays, with Morris likely out for another game. They are both way too cheap for their minutes upside. The one who does not start will likely come with less ownership making him a better tournament play. Don’t play them together, but both are a great source of value.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Miami Heat – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Nets have lost 10-straight games and go into this road matchup against the Heat as double-digit underdogs. James Harden has left the building, and Kevin Durant is still not healthy enough to return to the court. Not only Durant, but the Nets are also missing a host of players. Like it has been recently, tonight will be the Kyrie Irving show. Using our On/Off tool, Irving has a team-high 32.9% usage rate and a +6.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Durant and Harden off the floor this season.
In nine of his last 10 games that Irving has played, he has had 20 or more field goal attempts. It is unlikely Ben Simmons, Andre Drummond, and Seth Curry play tonight, leaving Irving on an island once again. The Heat rank sixth in Defensive Rating, allowing only 104.2 points per game. The Nets have a 104.5 implied total, but Irving will be heavily involved if this game is competitive.
Top Value: Devin Vassell at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
With Derrick White out of town, the Spurs elected to start Devin Vassell at shooting guard, which paid off in a big way. Vassell had 20 points as he shot 9-for-13 from the field while making both of his 3-point attempts. He had over 30 DraftKings points for the third time in his last five games. The Spurs did acquire Josh Richardson, but he won’t play tonight, which will solidify the minutes for Vassell.
The Pelicans and Spurs are neck and neck in the Western Conference standings, both on the outside looking into the playoff picture. The Pelicans rank 19th in Defensive Rating but get torched from the perimeter. They allow opponents to shoot 36.5% from behind the arc, which ranks third-highest in the league. Vassell is third on the Spurs in 3-point percentage this season with 35%. He has made at least two 3-pointers in three of his last five games. He was great starting last night. Expect a similar output tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
One of the most consistent players in the league lately has been veteran DeMar DeRozan. With or without Zach LaVine in the lineup, DeRozan has balled out. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 13 games. During that stretch, he has only had one game, scoring below 28 points while he is averaging 33.2 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 58.3% from the field. Just in the last four games, DeRozan is averaging 38.5 points and 55.2 DraftKings points per game. Unbelievable run.
The Bulls are the second-largest favorite on the board as they host the Thunder. Despite losing four-straight games, the Thunder have actually been able to keep games remotely close lately, mainly due to their ninth-ranked defense. The Bulls are still without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, so DeRozan has had to increase his ball-handling duties. Look to DeRozan for consistency in cash games.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is listed as PF eligible only on DraftKings.
Top Value: Isaac Okoro at Philadelphia 76ers – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
The small forward position for value is a ghost town yet again. So why not play the value option who is likely to play the most minutes? That would be Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro. Okoro is projected for 30 minutes tonight and provides a good source of value at this cheap price tag on both sites. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games on FanDuel.
During that 10-game stretch, Okoro has yet to have a game where he had over a 20% usage rate, which is not ideal. Playing so many minutes, it is easier for Okoro to run into fantasy points. This game between the Cavaliers and 76ers is the lowest total on the slate at 208 points, with the Cavaliers implied for a slate-low 102.25 points. They are still likely without Darius Garland and Lauri Markkanen. Always more appealing to go to a value play in this situation than a higher-priced player.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Washington Wizards – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Arguably the biggest name traded to the Western Conference was Domantas Sabonis. Trading Tyrese Haliburton was a little bit crazy, but getting an All-Star like Sabonis can help the Kings win now and in the immediate future. Sabonis was dealing with an ankle injury and then was in the COVID protocols over the past few weeks. However, he looked fully healthy when he took the floor for the Kings in his first game. Sabonis finished with 22 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and 48.5 DraftKings points.
The Wizards finally got back in the win column after losing their last eight of nine games. They just traded away Montrezl Harrell, but Kristaps Porzingis might be able to play today. Regardless, Sabonis should feast on this frontcourt. He had a 30.4% usage rate in his first game, and that could ramp up the more he gets used to his new team. The price tag is high, but Sabonis has triple-double upside.
Top Value: Thaddeus Young vs. Denver Nuggets – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Thaddeus Young is literally breaking our Tournament Model. He has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He was just traded to the Raptors, where his first test is to guard arguably the best offensive player in the league Nikola Jokic. Nice welcome party, that is. Young was in and out of the lineup for the Spurs, and even though we don’t know what his role will be with the Raptors yet, it will likely be better than that one. In his most recent game, he had seven points, eight rebounds, and 24 DraftKings points.
There is obvious risk with Young. It would be nice to see if he is in the starting lineup or get some confirmation of news regarding how many minutes he will play. Regardless, this is a very cheap salary, and he should be extremely popular tonight. The Nuggets are a middle-of-the-road defense and play quite slow. However, this play is more so about the cheap salary than the matchup.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Toronto Raptors – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Not only is Nikola Jokic not the highest-priced player on DraftKings, but he isn’t even the highest-owned center. That belongs to Joel Embiid, who is in a much tougher matchup against the Cavaliers. Jokic saw a major price decrease on DraftKings despite posting his 15th triple-double of the season last night against the Celtics. Jokic leads the league in triple-doubles as he went for 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists. His salary on both sites provides a very high ceiling once again.
The Nuggets are small road underdogs as this total is relatively high at 222.5 points. The Raptors have a very undersized frontcourt which Jokic should exploit tonight. As I mentioned, they picked up Thaddeus Young, but no one will be able to slow down Jokic. It has beena whilee since we have seen this price tag for Jokic on DraftKings. It looks more appealing the more I look at it.
Top Value: PJ Washington vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The highest projected Plus/Minus value center on FanDuel is PJ Washington, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating. Washington has been a little boom or bust lately, which has kept his salary at a reasonable price. He has a positive Plus/Minus in four out of his last six games. During that time, Washington has averaged 11.3 points, 7 rebounds, and 26 DraftKings points per game.
This matchup against the Grizzlies features the highest total on the slate by far at 238.5 points. The Hornets are 7-point home underdogs as the Grizzlies have won seven of their last eight games. The Hornets are coming off of their first win in their last seven games as Washington had 13 points, five rebounds, and five assists off the bench. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this high-scoring game.
