The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Orlando Magic – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Mavericks have been in a blowout in each of their past three games. The point differential has averaged out to 28.3 points per game. That has cut into the minutes and production of Luka Doncic, but he is still averaging nearly a triple-double with 23.3 points, 10.0 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game. Doncic ranks second behind Joel Embiid for usage rate this season with 35.7% per game.
Despite the Magic having the worst record in the league, the spread is only 5.5 points in favor of the Mavericks tonight. Hopefully they can play a close game for once. The Magic rank 22nd in defensive rating and this is a pace-up spot for the Mavericks. This is a matchup that Doncic should thrive in. He has scored over 70 DraftKings points in two of his last six games. Can we see a third tonight?
Top Value: Tre Jones at Phoenix Suns – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
The best value play on the slate by a landslide is Tre Jones. The Spurs will be without both Dejounte Murray and Derrick White tonight. Jones has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and costs the stone minimum. Not only is Jones popping, but there are many Spurs that will be discussed in this article. Jones still stands out as the best option.
It seems like every time we get a huge value situation, the matchup is always terrible. That is no different tonight as the Spurs get a matchup with the best team in the league, the Phoenix Suns. They rank second in defensive rating this season. They also rank seventh in pace while the Spurs rank fifth, so this will be a great game environment. Prioritize Jones above the other Spurs value tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Devin Booker has found a new aggressiveness lately that has really provided him a new ceiling. Over the last six games, Booker has attempted 28.3 field goals per game. During that time, he has also averaged 32.0 points and 52.7 DraftKings points while playing 38.0 minutes per game. That is including a game where Booker only had 11 points. He has showcased his upside in a big way recently.
This matchup for Booker and the Suns is fantastic. The Spurs rank 20th in defensive rating and fifth in pace this season. This game features the second-highest total on the slate at 228 points with the Suns as 13-point home favorites. They have an implied total of 120.5 points tonight! Booker ranks seventh in the league in usage rate with 32.4%, but he has a 38.1% usage rate in his last six games.
Top Value: Devin Vassell at Phoenix Suns – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Second-year shooting guard Devin Vassell is the second Spurs value play that we can get to tonight. He probably has the best raw talent of any of the Spurs players that will be in the lineup. Behind Keldon Johnson, Vassell has scored the second most points per game of any of the Spurs remaining players. He has started six games this year, and we project Vassell to start again tonight.
Vassell has not only increased his points, rebounds, and assists this season, but he also is shooting the ball much better. He is shooting 44.4% from the field and 35.1% from behind the arc. He has a 19.1% usage rate this season, which is also an increase from his 14.3% usage rate last season. Vassell will be relied on heavily to score the ball tonight if the Spurs want any chance of competing.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Utah Jazz – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Anthony Edwards has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, but when he pops he nearly breaks the slate. Edwards has scored over 60 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. He has thrived with D’Angelo Russell out. Using our On/Off tool, Edwards has a team-high +3.7% usage rate and a +4.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Russell off the floor this season. Edwards is a good play who could be a great play if Russell is out tonight. Make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock with our news portal.
Similar to Booker, Edwards is starting to be more aggressive offensively. He also has been dialed in from long distance. Edwards has made four or more 3-pointers in four out of his last five games. The Jazz defense takes a massive hit without Rudy Gobert. Their defensive rating drops from 108.5 to 121.3 per game in the eight games that Gobert has missed this season. Look for Edwards to stay aggressive tonight.
Top Value: Doug McDermott at Phoenix Suns – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Spurs forward Doug McDermott stands out among the rest of the small forwards as the best value for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since returning from the COVID protocols, McDermott has played at least 20 minutes in every game. During that nine-game stretch, he has four games where he scored double-digit points while averaging 9.7 field-goal attempts per game. He is probably the safest Spurs play minutes-wise.
Using our On/Off tool, McDermott has a team-high +7.7% usage rate and a +11.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus without Murray and White on the floor this season. Granted he has only played 31 minutes in this scenario, but the numbers are very telling. One thing that separates McDermott from the other Spurs value plays is that he leads the team with 2.1 made 3-pointers per game. Add him to the value list.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Denver Nuggets – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
According to our model, Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks third among the players priced over $10,000 tonight. However, with so much value on this slate, he does make sense to get to in a stars-and-scrubs build. Giannis also is a great contrarian option up top as well. He is second to Nikola Jokic for the highest DraftKings points per minute with 1.73 per game. He has incredible upside in this spot.
The Bucks are still in a really good spot, as they have an implied total of 119.75 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. Despite the Nuggets ranking 23rd in pace this season, this game has the highest total of 233 points. Giannis ranks fourth in the league and second on the slate with a 35.1% usage rate. He will be heavily involved in what should be a great game.
Top Value: Maxi Kleber at Orlando Magic – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
It is time to get a little different with the value options. Maxi Kleber is in the middle of all of the Spurs value, which goes to show how good of a play he is tonight. The Mavericks will be playing without Kristaps Porzingis as he nurses an injury. In the 12 games Kleber has played without Porzingis in the lineup this season, he has averaged 8.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 23.3 DraftKings points per game.
Kleber is coming off of his second double-double of the season, where he had 15 points and 14 rebounds against the Pacers. This matchup against the Magic is a little bit more difficult, as they have been solid against opposing big men. However, Kleber does most of his damage from the perimeter. He is a great way to get away from the Spurs’ chalky value options, especially at this cheap salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Milwaukee Bucks – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Not only does Nikola Jokic lead all centers in ceiling, but he leads the entire slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is the highest-priced player on both sites and comes in as the highest-rated player on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. Jokic has had a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games. During that time, he is averaging a triple-double with 29.3 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game.
The Bucks have been a very solid defense this season, as they rank eighth in defensive rating and have only allowed 42.4 points per game in the paint, which ranks fifth in the league. The Bucks are also in the top ten in rebounding -percentage. Good thing Jokic is matchup-proof. He is averaging a career-high 1.82 DraftKings points per minute and a 31.4% usage rate. There is too much value not to get to Jokic.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Phoenix Suns – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Why not another stone-minimum Spurs value option? Drew Eubanks will likely move into the starting lineup with Jakob Poeltl. Eubanks has double-double upside despite the difficult matchup against the Suns. He nearly had a double-double off the bench a few games ago, when he had 13 points and nine rebounds while only playing 15 minutes! Our model has Eubanks projected to play a modest 20 minutes.
The Suns also have a very banged up frontcourt, as Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee are both questionable to play. Eubanks is popping as the second-best Spurs option, but the optimal lineup could realistically include three or four Spurs players tonight. The risk with Eubanks is mitigated, as there are two spots to play centers on DraftKings and he is power forward-eligible on FanDuel.
