The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Washington Wizards – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
There are several ceiling point guards on the slate tonight, but taking the savings with Ja Morant stands out as a fantastic option. Morant has gone nuclear the past five games averaging 33.4 points, 8.8 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game. During that time, he is shooting 49.3% from the field while attempting an absurd 26.8 field goals per game! Morant has also averaged 62.4 DraftKings points per game.
Last night Morant recorded his fifth-straight 30-point game and highest-scoring triple-double in franchise history as he led the Grizzlies to their 25th victory in their last 32 games. Morant has averaged a +13.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus during that five-game stretch and also has averaged a 37.6% usage rate per game. This game also has the second-highest total on the slate at 228.5 points.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson vs. Indiana Pacers – $6,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Jalen Brunson certainly isn’t near as good as Luka Doncic, but he is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Mavericks, who are 10-point home favorites against the Pacers tonight. Our model has Brunson as the highest projected Plus/Minus guard on both sites, and he is the best-projected value play on FanDuel. He is the only player on the slate that has a double-digit projected Plus/Minus tonight.
Brunson has shown an incredible level of consistency this season. On FanDuel, Brunson has had a positive Plus/Minus in 20 of his last 26 games. He is coming off of a double-double where he had 20 points and 11 assists. He also grabbed six rebounds as he scored 43.7 FanDuel points. The Pacers rank 24th in Defensive Rating and may have heavy legs coming off of an overtime victory last night.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Golden State Warriors – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
The Brooklyn Nets have lost three consecutive games but get Kyrie Irving back tonight as the Nets go on the road against the Warriors. They are still without Kevin Durant for the foreseeable future with an injury. In the four games that Irving has played without Durant this season, he is averaging 27.8 points and 45.0 DraftKings points per game while shooting 53.9% from the field.
Last season was a little bit bigger of a sample size as Irving played 50 games without Durant. Using our On/Off tool, in those games, Irving led the Nets with a 33.0% usage rate per game. This matchup against the Warriors is extremely difficult as they lead the league in Defensive Rating and points against, allowing only 101.9 per game. Regardless of the hard matchup, Irving has a legit ceiling at this salary.
Top Value: Gary Trent Jr. at Miami Heat – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
It hasn’t taken long for Gary Trent Jr. to get back to playing heavy minutes for the Raptors. After missing six games due to an ankle injury, Trent Jr. has averaged 36 minutes per game in his last two games. His most recent game was cut short after being ejected late in the fourth quarter. Trent Jr. has had back-to-back 32-point games where he shot 51.2% from the field and 55.0% from behind the arc.
Anytime a Raptors player is popping in the model, they are difficult to ignore. Most of their starters play an absurd amount of minutes. Trent Jr. is projected to play 35 minutes tonight, but that feels conservative. This matchup against the Heat is tough as the Raptors are projected for a slate-low 101.5 points tonight. Prioritize Trent Jr. on DraftKings, but he is shooting too well to worry about the matchup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at New Orleans Pelicans – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
If his shot is falling, Jayson Tatum can blow open a slate in a hurry. He displayed that less than a week ago when he had 51 points, 10 rebounds, and 79.5 DraftKings points. There are not many players on this slate that can get as hot as Tatum can. Despite shooting a career-low 42.7% from the field, Tatum is averaging 26.0 or more points per game for the second season in a row.
Tatum can exploit this matchup against the Pelicans from the perimeter. He leads the Celtics with 8.4 3-point attempts per game, and that is where to attack this Pelicans defense. They allow the second-best 3-point attempt percentage this season with 37.0% per game. Tatum has the highest ceiling for small forwards tonight and one of the highest ceilings on the slate if he can get it cooking from distance.
Top Value: Kessler Edwards at Golden State Warriors – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Taken over the Kevin Durant role for the Nets has been rookie Kessler Edwards. He is popping as the best value play at the small forward position on FanDuel, where he has had a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games. Counting the game that Durant left due to injury, Edwards has averaged 34.4 minutes per game in the last seven games. He is projected for a modest 32 minutes tonight.
The matchup, as I mentioned above, is brutal, but the game environment is very favorable. Despite the tough matchup, this game has the highest total on the slate at 231 points. Edwards provides versatility to the Nets, and this is a great spot to showcase his upside. Even if the Splash Brothers rain triple after triple and this game gets out of hand, expect Edwards to still get a decent amount of run.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Dallas Mavericks – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
After missing four-straight games, Domantas Sabonis picked up right where he left off last night as he recorded a triple-double with 24 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assists. Oddly enough, Sabonis has been a triple-double machine lately as that was his fourth in his last eight games. He has shown incredible upside lately. Sabonis played 44 minutes last night and had a season-high 74.1 DraftKings points.
With this game being a back-to-back and Sabonis playing 44 minutes last night in his first game back, make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. The Mavericks are tied for the heaviest favorite on the slate tonight, but they tend to struggle against opposing bigs. If the Pacers can keep this game close at all without Malcolm Brogdon, expect another big game from Sabonis.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa at Miami Heat – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Unlike most of the Raptors starters, their center position has bit a bit of a carousel all season long. There are games where Precious Achiuwa will play 40 minutes and games where he will play 15 minutes. He presents a riskier value option on this slate, but he also provides double-double upside. His price has dropped $1,000 on DraftKings in just one week, despite his minutes starting to ramp up again.
Achiuwa has played an average of 24 minutes in his last two games and has provided an average of 6.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. If Fred VanVleet is out once again, that will solidify the minutes for Achiuwa. The Raptors also need his size to play against Bam Adebayo, who is finally back from injury. There is definitely risk with Achiuwa, but the price tag has gotten out of control.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Sacramento Kings – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Finally, we get to the most expensive and best play on the slate tonight with Joel Embiid. He is coming off of a mediocre 26 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists game as the 76ers blew out the Lakers 107-85. However, in his previous four games, Embiid averaged a massive double-double with 42.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. During that time, he averaged 70.9 DraftKings points per game.
For a center, this is the best matchup possible. Not only do the Kings rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season, but they have allowed the most points in the paint with 52.6 per game. They allow 114.9 points per game which ranks second-highest in the league, while they also rank seventh in Pace. Embiid leads the league in usage rate with 36.3% per game and will absolutely feast in this matchup.
Top Value: Richaun Holmes at Philadelphia 76ers – $4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Our model has Richaun Holmes as the highest projected value play on DraftKings tonight. The matchup against Embiid is always concerning with foul trouble, but the value Holmes provides on DraftKings is impossible to ignore. He has a 95% Bargain Rating and is projected to play 28 minutes in a game that has the third-highest total.
Holmes has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games. The one he missed was when the Kings were blown out 128-75 against the Celtics. During those four games, he has averaged 12 points and six rebounds per game. He has had over 20 DraftKings points in each game. Prioritize Holmes on DraftKings as his minutes should increase in this spot despite the difficult matchup.
