In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 18 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Jonathan Taylor (1st)
- Devin Singletary (9th)
- D’Onta Foreman (15th)
- James Conner (28th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Jonathon Taylor ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-15) at Jacksonville Jaguars (44 total)
The Colts need a win on Sunday to punch their ticket to the playoffs. That’s fortunate for us, as it likely means we’ll continue to see a heavy dose of Jonathon Taylor in a tremendous matchup with Jacksonville. There’s a chance he makes a somewhat early exit if the Colts have this one in the bag, but the overwhelming majority of the time, that would happen due to Taylor having early success anyway.
There is, of course, the historical trend of players struggling in their second matchup with divisional rivals. We can safely ignore that, though. Taylor scored more points in the second meeting against both the Texans and the Colts. He dropped 27.6 points on Jacksonville in November, so that’s a good sign. Additionally, all of the Week 18 matchups are divisional rematches, so we couldn’t avoid it if we tried.
Anyway, Taylor is wrapping up an all-time great fantasy season, made more notable by the lack of true every-down running backs around him in the league. He’s a clear outlier in our models. Only Dalvin Cook is within five points in our median projections. With questions around Cook’s usage (with Week 18 being a meaningless game for Minnesota), locking in the high-probability points from Taylor will be a priority in all contest types.
Taylor is the leader in our Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some of the individual Pro Models sampled for this piece. His salary is prohibitive, but he’s worth it this week.
Devin Singletary ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-16) vs. New York Jets.
Singletary’s situation closely mirrors that of Taylor’s. While Buffalo has clinched a playoff spot, the range of potential seeds is still very wide. The Bills would secure at least one home playoff game with a win. They could also move up as high as the No. 2 seed (currently fourth). With a loss, they could fall as far as seventh, which would mean their playoff run takes place entirely on the road.
Also similar to the Colts, Buffalo is a massive favorite against one of the NFL’s worst teams. It should be fairly easy for the Bills to take care of business here. Obviously, being a big favorite is somewhat beneficial to running backs. Teams run the ball more when they have a lead.
Singletary is clearly nowhere near the player Taylor is. He’s seen Taylor-eque usage as of late, though, with at least 22 carries in two of the Bills’ last three games. The other game featured 47 Josh Allen pass attempts, so it’s not as if the Bills used other players over Singeltary.
The matchup is outstanding as well, with the Jets consistently grading as the league’s worst defense by DVOA all season. As long as Singletary continues to serve as the Bills’ feature back, he should have a great price-considered game here.
Like Taylor, there’s some risk that Singeltary takes an early exit if the Bills run away with this one. That risk is increased since Buffalo is far more likely than the Colts to have built that lead through the air. Singeltary leads one of our FanDuel Pro Models this week.
D’Onta Foreman ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-10) at Houston Texans (42 total)
The Titans are eagerly anticipating the return of Derrick Henry, which should come in time for the Playoffs. Henry returned to practice this week after being out since Week 8. While Henry is eligible to play this week, all signs would certainly point to waiting until the postseason.
The Titans can secure an extra week of recovery for Henry via a first-round bye with a win against Houston this week. They’re double-digit favorites and likely to employ a run-heavy approach regardless of who suits up in their backfield.
Lately, Foreman has separated as the superior option in the running game. The Titans shuffled a variety of backs around in the immediate aftermath of Henry’s injury. However, Foreman has emerged as the lead back. He saw 26 carries in last week’s blowout win against the Dolphins.
Assuming a relatively similar game script, it would make sense to see another heavy-usage Foreman game. Resting him for the playoffs isn’t a priority since the Titans should have Henry back. Taking it easy on their receivers could be crucial, though, as AJ Brown and Julio Jones have both missed significant time on the season.
Houston is also (surprisingly) a fairly decent pass defense. They struggle against the run, though, ranking 24th in DVOA. That’s a lot worse than the Dolphins (13th), who Foreman gashed for over five yards per carry last week.
Foreman (unless we get news of a Henry return) is one of the safest options of the week at a reasonable price. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal on DraftKings and leads our Cash Game Models on both sites.
James Conner ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 total)
Conner is the riskiest option of our top model backs. The Cardinals can theoretically improve their playoff seeding but don’t control their own destiny in that regard. They’ll likely still be playing all out here, but it’s not as crucial to them as it is to the other backs discussed here.
Given Conner’s recent injury history (missed the last two games), it wouldn’t be surprising if the Cardinals limited his reps a bit heading into the playoffs. On the other hand, Chase Edmonds is out for this game, which has meant heavy doses of Conner in the past.
That would be a very good thing against a Seattle defense with the softest Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed (DraftKings) to running backs on the slate. Additionally, Arizona has the third-highest team total. With Conner’s propensity for scoring touchdowns this season, that’s another good sign for him.
Conner is a high-risk, high-reward tournament option for Week 18. He’s also currently listed as questionable. If he joins Edmonds in the inactives for this game, minimum-priced Jonathon Ward and Eno Benjamin would be the next men up for Arizona. Both would be in play, with Benjamin currently listed in front of Ward on the depth chart.
We probably won’t have news on Conner’s status until after the early slate of games kicks off on Sunday. That makes playing any Cardinals back a high-leverage opportunity, but especially Ward and Benjamin. They’re likely to be in very few of your competitors’ lineups if we don’t have definitive news on Conner before the early-game lock. Building some late-swap optionality into your lineup is a big advantage this week.
Our projections like Conner if he gets the start, though. He leads one of our Pro Models on FanDuel, where his touchdown-heavy production is more valuable.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Dalvin Cook ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears (44 total)
This is a meaningless game for both teams, making Cook an uncomfortable option this week. However, head coach Mike Zimmer is likely on the hot seat and will probably be playing all out to showcase his team’s toughness or desire or some other such nonsense. That would mean a heavy workload for Cook against a run-funnel Bears defense.
Cook has had a somewhat disappointing year, currently ranking as the RB13 in PPR scoring. Some of that is due to four missed games (and an early exit in another), but he hasn’t been as dominant as he once was. Still, outside of Taylor, he has as high of a ceiling as anyone on the slate. Our Ownership Projections have him outside of the top five running backs, making this an obvious leverage situation.
David Montgomery ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings (44 total)
Montgomery is in the same situation as Cook this week. Besides being in the same game, he’s playing for a lame-duck coach who’d like to prove his worth by ending the season strong. I’d imagine the motivation and effort level is somewhat higher for a young Bears team – who didn’t really expect to contend this year – than it is for the disappointing Vikings.
Montgomery has seen lead-back usage as of late, with his 17 targets in the last three games especially encouraging. Our models prefer Cook, though, with Cook having a higher ceiling at lower projected ownership and a better Pts/Sal. Montgomery is fine if you can’t find the salary for Cook, though.
Nick Chubb ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (37.5 total)
Chubb leads the Minimalist Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 18. We have him projected under 10% FanDuel ownership and under 3% on DraftKings (where he’s less of a value).
The range of outcomes is extremely wide for Chubb this week in a meaningless Week 18 game. Cleveland could play this one straight (with the exception of quarterback. Baker Mayfield has the week off, though that might not be much of a downgrade). The Bengals are far more likely to be resting their starters, having already ruled out Joe Burrow and Mixon. If defensive starters rest as well, Chubb could have a field day on even moderate usage against the Bengals.
Of course, Chubb could also see limited usage in a pointless game for the Browns. That’s hard to stomach at his current salary. That uncertainty is, of course, why he’s such a great tournament play this week. He deserves a long look in all of your lineups.
Programming Note: The position-by-position breakdowns will continue through the first two rounds of the playoffs as regularly scheduled. (All of which can be found here.) Thanks for reading throughout the year, and I’ll see you in the playoffs!
