Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for the final week of the NFL season with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
More or Less 2/2
Carson Wentz Passing Yards (199.5) vs. Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards (190.5)
In one of the more interesting games on the slate, the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars square off, with AFC playoff implications on the line for several teams, contingent on the outcome.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz leads a balanced offense, preferring a 53%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio, running a play at the second-slowest pace of 28.6 per snap (per RotoViz). As 9.5-point home favorites, the Colts may opt to involve running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyhiem Hines in a clock-killing situation, especially if ahead toward the end of the game. Regardless, Wentz and the Colts face a Jacksonville offense ranked 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and should easily move the ball down the field. The large spread might signal blowout potential, limiting Wentz’s ability to reach the 200-passing yard threshold.
This year, Wentz has reached the 200-passing yard mark in nine games, and our models are projecting him to throw for 195.5, skewing him slightly toward the under.
The year for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been less than ideal, leading a Jacksonville Jaguars offense ranked 29th (per PFF). As 9.5-point underdogs, look for Lawrence to likely increase the already pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run ratio as the Jaguars’ up-tempo offense, running a play every 24.3 seconds, which leads the league (per RotoViz), in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive. Wide receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Laquon Treadwell should remain as top options for Lawrence, seeing four or more targets in every game since Week 14. One benefit to the matchup surrounds the Colts’ weakness in stopping the run, ranking 14th in pass DVOA, signaling an additional opportunity for Lawrence.
Lawrence has reached the 191-passing yard threshold in 11 games this year, and we’re projecting him to throw for 198.5-passing yards against the Colts, trending him toward the over.
The Pick: Carson Wentz less 199.5 passing yards, Trevor Lawrence More 190.5 passing yards
More or Less 2/2
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards (199.5) vs. Mac Jones Passing Yards (199.5)
The New England Patriots head to Miami in hopes of reclaiming the AFC East. Led by rookie quarterback Mac Jones, the Patriots, who rank as the second-best offense (according to PFF), use a balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run play calling split. The Week 18 matchup may prove a challenge for Jones and the Patriots’ receiving corps, facing a stout Dolphins defense ranked 10th in DVOA. Look for Jones to involve second-year wide receiver Jakobi Meyers as the primary playmaker, responsible for 23% of the Patriots’ target share, averaging 10.1 yards per reception. As 2.5-point favorites, the classic AFC rivalry might be closer than expected, likely creating a scenario for Jones, who averages 30 pass attempts per game, to involve Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and tight end Hunter Henry throughout the matchup.
Jones has thrown for more than 200 yards this season in 11 games. Our models project him to throw for 223.5 passing yards against the Dolphins, moving him toward the over.
Tua Tagovailoa leads a Miami Dolphins offense ranked as one of the worst in the league (26th per PFF) but operates as one of the more pass-friendly teams, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio and calling plays at a 25.6 second per snap pace. The Week 18 matchup against the Patriots will be no easy feat; a defense ranked second in DVOA. In a close matchup, look for Tua to likely target rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle and veteran DeVante Parker, responsible for more than 46% of the Dolphins’ target share.
This year, Tua has thrown for more than 200 yards in eight games, and we’re projecting him to throw for 224.5-yards, despite a tough matchup defensively.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa More 199.5 passing yards, Mac Jones More 199.5 passing yards
