NFL Week 17 features a 14-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
The quarterback position is not nearly as strong as you would expect on a 14-game slate. Most of the highest-priced options own negative projected Plus/Minus marks in our NFL Models, and only two players own a mark of greater than +0.70 on DraftKings.
Dak Prescott is one of them. His production had been down entering last week’s game vs. the Football Team, but he bounced back in a huge way. He racked up 330 passing yards and four touchdowns in just three quarters, finishing with 34.3 DraftKings points.
Prescott is in another solid spot this week vs. the Cardinals. They started the year as a strong defensive team, but they’ve dipped to just 11th in Football Outsiders weighted defensive DVOA. That places a higher premium on games that come later in the season.
More importantly, Prescott stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Cowboys’ implied team total of 28.75 points ranks fourth on the slate, and they’re currently listed as six-point home favorites. Prescott has historically been at his best as a home favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.49 (per the Trends tool).
Value
Trey Lance stands out as the clear top choice for DraftKings’ cash games. He’s priced at just $4,800, and he leads all quarterbacks in projected Plus/Minus and points-per-dollar projection by a wide margin.
Lance has made just one previous start this season, and his production wasn’t all that impressive. He completed just 15 for 29 passes for 192 yards, and he also had one interception and zero touchdowns.
However, what makes Lance appealing is his rushing ability. He finished with 16 carries for 89 yards in that contest, and that kind of production is elite for the quarterback position. Lance put his full upside on display in a game where he replaced Jimmy Garoppolo due to an injury. He racked up more than 20 DraftKings points in just one half of football, so he has the potential to be one of the top producers at the position.
Lance also benefits from an excellent matchup vs. the Texans. The 49ers’ implied team total of 28.25 ranks fifth on the slate, and the 49ers are listed as 12.5-point home favorites.
The only downside with Lance is his projected ownership. That’s not really a concern in cash games, but it makes him a fade candidate in tournaments.
Quick Hits
Josh Allen is the third quarterback expected to command heavy ownership on this slate. He’s one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy, and he’s been at the top of his game recently. He’s scored at least 33.96 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he should be able to keep things rolling in a juicy matchup vs. the Falcons. He leads all players at the position in terms of Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models.
I’m always interested in targets stud players at reduced ownership, and Patrick Mahomes fits that description. He’s projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings, and while he’s projected for slightly more on FanDuel, his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Matthew Stafford stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also taking on a Ravens’ secondary that has been decimated by injuries recently and ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA.
Is Jalen Hurts a viable option this week? Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Can anything stop Jonathan Taylor at this point? He’s been a fantasy monster this season, rushing for at least 100 yards or a touchdown in 12 straight games. He’s done both in eight of those contests, and he has four games with at least 31.8 DraftKings points this season.
If someone can slow Taylor down, it probably isn’t the Raiders. They’ve been a solid matchup for running backs this season, giving Taylor an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 on DraftKings. The Colts are also favored by seven points, and Taylor has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.25 when favored by greater than a field goal. Adding in home field advantage brings the average Plus/Minus to +10.89 on DraftKings, which is an unreal mark.
Taylor leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and his $9,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
Taylor is obviously an excellent option if you can afford him, but there are better per-dollar options in our NFL Models. David Montgomery is one of them. He’s been an absolute workhorse for the Bears recently, averaging 17.5 carries and 7.75 targets over his past four games.
He should be busier than usual vs. the Giants on Sunday. The team will start Andy Dalton at quarterback, so they will not have Justin Fields’ legs available as an option. That could mean more carries and targets out of the backfield.
Additionally, the Giants represent a great matchup for Montgomery. They rank 27th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bears are rare home favorites. The Bears haven’t been home favorites since Week 4 vs. the Lions, and Montgomery racked up 25.6 DraftKings points on just 36 snaps.
Quick Hits
Sony Michel stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s coming off 23.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s racked up at least 18 carries in four straight games. The only potential wrinkle would be the return of Cam Akers. He’s listed as questionable, but head coach Sean McVay told reporters that it’s unlikely that Akers suits up vs. the Ravens. As long as that’s the case, the coast is clear to fire up Michel with confidence.
D’Andre Swift is expected back this week for the Lions, and he always has appeal on DraftKings. He’s arguably the Lions’ best pass-catcher, and he draws a dream matchup vs. the Seahawks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.3, and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Ronald Jones was busy in his first game of the year without Leonard Fournette. He racked up 20 carries and three targets vs. the Panthers, and he finished with 15.1 FanDuel points. He’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Jets, who have been a disaster against the run this season. They rank 29th in rush defense DVOA, and Jones should get plenty of work as a nearly two-touchdown favorite.
There are plenty of other running backs worth of consideration this week – Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary, and Alvin Kamara to name a few – and Billy Ward breaks them down in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp continues to absolutely smash for fantasy players. He’s coming off a relatively poor performance last week, but he still racked up 13 targets, 10 catches, and 109 yards. His 24.3 DraftKings points was his lowest mark in four weeks, but it still resulted in a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
That can essentially be considered a baseline projection for Kupp vs. the Ravens. He’s been held below 92 receiving yards just once this season, and that was all the way back in Week 4. He’s on pace to basically rewrite the record book at receiver, and he has a chance at becoming the first receiver to eclipse 2,000 yards.
Kupp should find very little resistance at cornerback from the Ravens. Pro Football Focus credits him with the fifth-best matchup of the week, and he’s expected to see most of his snaps against slot corner Tavon Young. He ranks merely 80th out of 116 qualified corners in terms of PFF grade, and he’s allowed a completion percentage of 72% when targeted in coverage.
The big question is should you pay up for Kupp or Taylor in cash games this week? Playing both is obviously ideal, but I’d rather go with Kupp if I can only afford one. Both players have been extremely reliable this season, but it’s much tougher to duplicate Kupp’s production at wide receiver. Kupp also ranks second at receiver in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, while Taylor ranks sixth at running back.
Value
Braxton Berrios has been a nice source of value for the Jets recently. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight weeks, and he saw a nice uptick in playing time last week. He played on 48 out of 58 possible snaps, and he finished with six targets. He ultimately secured five catches for 37 yards, and he added a touchdown on special teams, as well.
The return touchdown is obviously fluky, but his offensive production alone is enough to justify his current price tag. He should serve as the Jets’ slot receiver with Jamison Crowder doubtful, and he has the potential for plenty of targets as a double-digit underdog vs. the Buccaneers.
Quick Hits
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been phenomenal for the Lions recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 23.5 DraftKings points in three of them. It’s possible that his role is slightly less prominent with Swift back in the lineup, but there are plenty of targets to go around in Detroit.
As usual, most of the top values at receiver are found on FanDuel. High-priced options like Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb all own Bargain Ratings of at least 96%. Of that quartet, Lamb is grading out best in our NFL Models. He leads the entire receiving position in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
A.J. Brown returned to the Titans’ lineup last week, and he wasted little time making an impact. He racked up 16 targets, which he turned in 11 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. Julio Jones has been ruled out for the Titans this week, so Brown should be poised for another monster workload.
Antonio Brown is expected to get a bit of help this week in the form of Mike Evans, but he should still see plenty of work with Chris Godwin out of the lineup. Brown had a whopping 15 targets last week, and his $6,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Bengals’ passing attack dominated last week. Should you consider going right back to them? Billy Ward highlights the Bengals’ trio of pass-catchers in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews is trying to grab the tight end crown, but for now, Travis Kelce remains the king. He missed last week’s game after landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but Kelce will be back in the lineup in Week 17. However, we have seen players struggle in their first game back following a COVID absence, so expectations should probably be lowered for Kelce vs. the Bengals.
Still, not many tight ends are capable of doing what Kelce does on a near-weekly basis. He was dominant in his last outing, racking up 10 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns, and he leads the position in terms of ceiling projection this week. He’s also projected for just 6.9% ownership, so he’s worth some consideration in tournaments.
Value
Paying down at tight end feels like the correct decision in cash games. That said, there doesn’t appear to be a clear-cut standout. No one is projected for more than 14% ownership at tight end on DraftKings, so expect to see a host of different options at the position.
C.J. Uzomah is grading out best in our NFL Models. He’s coming off a seven-target game last week, and he’s racked up at least six targets in three of his past four. He responded with at least 8.6 DraftKings points for the second time in the past three weeks. The only thing Uzomah really hasn’t done recently is score a touchdown. If he can add that to his receiving profile, he has the potential to pay off handsomely.
Quick Hits
The Chargers are down their top two tight end options this week, leaving Stephen Anderson as the presumed starter. Anderson has run just 81 routes this season, but he did finish with two catches for 34 yards in limited playing time last week. Anderson has decent athletic measurables for the position, and he’s priced at the minimum at $2,500 on DraftKings. Add in the fact that he’s catching passes from Justin Herbert and there’s more than enough to justify a roster spot.
Zach Ertz continues to stand out as an excellent value on FanDuel. His $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he leads the position with nine Pro Trends. Ertz has also been a target hog recently, racking up at least 11 in back-to-back games.
Rob Gronkowski has cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but should you consider buying low? Billy Ward makes the case for Gronk in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
The first player to lock into your DraftKings lineup this week is Lance. He’s simply too cheap at $4,800, and he allows you to spend up for some of the stud skill-position players.
It’s definitely possible to pair Lance with both Kupp and Taylor, but I like the idea of just using Kupp. It allows you to beef up the rest of your roster, and there are plenty of cheaper running backs in great spots.
Speaking of which, Montgomery and Michel are locks at their current salaries. They own the top projected Plus/Minuses at the position, and both players also own Bargain Ratings of at least 70%.
There are a few other strong options to consider at flex, but Devin Singletary is my current favorite. He’s taken over as the clear RB1 for the Bills, and he should have plenty of opportunities this week vs. the Falcons.
After that, Berrios slides in very nicely next to Kupp, and that leaves plenty of room for your WR3 and tight end. Uzomah and Lamb is one possible combination, but there are plenty of others worth considering.
The optimal FanDuel lineup construction looks very similar to DraftKings this week. There’s tons of overlap when optimizing by projected points in our Models: Both have Lance at QB, Kupp at WR, and the trio of Montgomery, Michel, and Singletary.
The one big difference on FanDuel is that the extra cap space allows us to spend up for Ertz at tight end. He’s simply too good of a value to pass up given his workload over the past two weeks.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge and Justin Bailey do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions and Small-Field GPP Strategy articles.
Good luck this week!
