In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 17 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Jonathan Taylor (1st)
- Josh Jacobs (9th)
- Devin Singletary (14th)
- D’Andre Swift (34th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Jonathon Taylor ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (44.5 total)
Once upon a time, workhorse running backs roamed the DFS streets, and the decision was which $9,000 running back to play. Those days seem like an eternity ago, though, with Jonathon Taylor as the last holdout (at least since Derrick Henry was lost for the season).
Taylor is a cut above the rest of the field in Median and Ceiling Projections this week. He’s also $800 more expensive than anybody else (on both sites) in a week where there’s plenty of midrange value at running back.
That creates an interesting situation for us. First, we need to decide if Taylor is worth the salary in a vacuum. It’s hard to argue anything else, as the Colts are touchdown favorites. They’re also taking on the Raiders, who rank sixth-worst in the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed to backs. Couple that with the clear volume edge Taylor has over the other high-priced backs, and finding the salary seems worthwhile.
For tournaments, though, we also need to overcome ownership. That’s where the price discrepancy between Taylor and the field actually helps us a bit. Taylor ranks seventh in Ownership Projection on both sites this week, which is low for the (obvious) best raw play on the slate.
Because of that gap between projections and ownership, Taylor is an awesome tournament play on both sites this week. He leads both of our Tournament Models, as well as one of our tournament-focused Pro Models on both sites. He’s also the leader in our DraftKings Cash Game Model, though he ranks sixth in Pts/Sal – he’s not a must-play by any stretch.
Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Indianapolis Colts (44.5 total)
In years past, we wouldn’t see Jacobs leading any models as a touchdown underdog. The knock on Jacobs as a fantasy asset was his limited passing-game involvement. He averaged only two targets per game his rookie season and only three last year. However, things are different now.
This season in general – but particularly since the release of Henry Ruggs – Jacobs has been a more active participant in the Raiders passing attack. He’s averaging roughly 4.5 targets on the year and 5.4 since Week 9. That keeps him in play even in negative game scripts.
It’s still a tough matchup on the ground for Jacobs, though, with the Colts ranking third in DVOA against the rush. However, his volume can make up for a lot of that – especially if that volume comes through the air. His targets per game are over six in Raiders losses since the Ruggs release.
Jacobs is far too cheap on FanDuel this week. He has a 92% Bargain Rating there and leads our Cash Game Model. That’s thanks to his slate-leading Pts/Sal there.
Devin Singletary ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (44 total)
Singletary has emerged as the Bills’ feature back in recent weeks, with his three highest snap counts since Week 1 (by percentage) coming in the past three games. That’s an extremely valuable role in the explosive Bills offense, but Singletary is still priced as a timeshare back.
That role is even more valuable than usual this week, though. The Bills have the highest Vegas total on the slate for their matchup with Atlanta. They’re also the second-biggest favorite, both of which point to more running back volume in general.
On top of the great game script, it’s also a good matchup for Singletary. Atlanta’s defense ranks 31st in overall DVOA. They’re slightly better against the run – ranking 25th – but not exactly a situation to be avoided. Presuming Singletary sees the 70%+ snap share he’s enjoyed the past few weeks, he’s in a great spot for this one.
Like Taylor, Singletary is an equally strong play on both sites. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s a bit of an uncomfortable cash game play, though. It’s hard to say that the Bills won’t utilize Zack Moss or Matt Breida heavily in this one, given the inconsistency of their running back rotation this year.
Which is why Singletary is standing out in our tournament-focused Pro Models this week. He leads two of them on FanDuel and one on DraftKings.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+7) at Seattle Seahawks (42.5 total)
Swift, like Singletary, is a high-variance play this week. The Lions star is expected to return from a four-game absence as the Lions travel to Seattle. Swift was being used heavily prior to his injury, particularly in the pass game. Accounting for only games played, he trails only Alvin Kamara in target share among running backs.
The big question is what his usage looks like coming back from an extended absence. Our rankings have him 34th overall, but with huge variation between our experts. Sean Koerner (who powers our projections) has him as the week’s seventh-best back. Chris Raybon has him ranked 66th in anticipation of a limited role.
If the usage is there, it’s a great matchup for Swift. Seattle is the best matchup for backs on the slate, allowing running backs (on DraftKings) an average Plus/Minus on the year of +5.3. That’s a full 1.5 points higher than the next-worst team (the Jets).
Due to that uncertainty, I’d stay far away from Swift in cash games and even smaller field tournaments. However, uncertainty is a great thing for large-field contests. Swift is projected as only our eighth-highest owned back on DraftKings this week.
He’s also a much stronger play on DraftKings for two reasons. First, his passing-game role is much more valuable with full PPR scoring. Second, his price is much, much cheaper there. DraftKings reduces player salaries gradually with each game they miss but doesn’t seem to bump them back up when they return. That makes targeting players who’ve missed time a profitable strategy there – though not one to follow blindly. Swift leads one of our DraftKings Pro Models this week.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
David Montgomery ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (-6) vs. New York Giants (37 total)
Montgomery is averaging over 20 carries per game in Bears wins this season. They’re favored by six against the Giants, who also feature the league’s 26th ranked rushing defense. That’s a solid combination for Montgomery, who we have projected as the highest-owned back on both sites this week.
That ownership makes him a somewhat easy fade for tournaments, though, as it’s hard to see him posting a slate-breaking score. A 20-point game from Montgomery on FanDuel is nice but certainly not a requirement to win any tournaments. However, he leads the FanDuel slate in Pts/Sal. He belongs in your cash game lineups for that reason.
Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-6.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (37.5 total)
Kamara trails only Montgomery and Taylor in Ceiling Projections on both sites this week. However, he’s expected to be owned at a fraction of the rate, which is why he’s the leader in our Minimalist Tournament Model on FanDuel.
Carolina is a significant run funnel, ranking 20th in DVOA on the ground and ninth against the pass. New Orleans also struggles to pass the ball all year, so they’ll likely lean heavily on Kamara in this one. Kamara has occasional monster games, popping off for at least 34 points five times over the last two seasons. Were he to do it again, it could easily lead the slate this week. That’s extremely valuable at his projected sub-5% ownership.
Austin Ekeler ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos (46 total)
Similar to Kamara, Ekeler doesn’t project especially well on paper this week – at least from a salary-considered standpoint. However, his true ceiling is as high as any player on the slate. He has three 30+ DraftKings point games this season, including the last matchup with the Raiders. Like Kamara, we also have him projected at sub-5% ownership. Taking a swing at one of the pair in most of my tournament lineups is my preferred strategy this week. They’re both extremely talented, dual-threat backs with a history of occasional monster games. I don’t want to miss out if one of them pops off this week.
Sony Michel ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Michel is still too cheap on DraftKings, despite his recent run as the lead back for the Rams. He’s tied with Singletary for the leader in Pts/Sal there, with everything pointing to him having a big game. He averaged over 22 carries per game in December, as well as 2.5 targets. Starter Darrell Henderson is on IR, and it’s unlikely that Cam Akers sees much action in his return from an Achillies Tendon rupture. The Rams are also favored against Baltimore, and they prefer to lean on the run when they’re in control of games.
Michel is a must in DraftKings cash games, and I have no problem eating the chalk in tournaments either. (Especially if pairing him with Ekeler/Kamara, which reduces your cumulative ownership significantly.)
