The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Denver Nuggets – $11,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
As of this writing, there’s still no Jordan Poole and Damion Lee for the Warriors, which should put even more of the onus on Curry to light up a so-so Nuggets defense that has been hurting. Our model gives Curry the highest ceiling at this position on both sites.
Top Value: Hassani Gravett vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The price has caught up to FanDuel, but he’s still one of the top value plays of the night there. On DraftKings, you can get Gravett — who saw 32 minutes last time out against Miami — at just over minimum salary. We project him to see 30 minutes in this matchup with so many injuries to Magic players.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal vs. Miami Heat – $10,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
I’ll preface this with the fact that Beal is currently listed as questionable after being in the league’s health and safety protocols, but assuming he plays, he should be the only one on the floor shooting. He is a bit expensive on DraftKings, but he is the top ceiling play there. He’ll be a great play on FanDuel with a +3.93 Projected Plus/Minus.
Top Value: Svi Mykhailiuk vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Mykhailiuk has been starring for a Raptors team that has been decimated by COVID-19, and even with Gary Trent, Jr. and Pascal Siakam questionable for this one, he should be able to find plenty of minutes. After going for nearly 30 fantasy points against Cleveland, we expect the wing to be worth around 6X on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling:
Jimmy Butler vs. Washington Wizards – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Butler’s Heat should have a slight health advantage here against the Wizards, and with the rim protection of Montrezl Harrell missing, he should be in the clear for a big night. We have Butler projected as the highest-upside option at small forward on both sites, but like Beal, above, he’ll provide the most bang for your buck on FanDuel with a +7.84 Projected Plus/Minus.
Top Value: Corey Kispert vs. Miami Heat – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Boy, we just love this game — don’t we? Kispert has seen at least 32 minutes in the last two games, and while his last outing against Philadelphia wasn’t anything to write home about, the sharpshooter delivered a sensational 20 points on 4-of-5 shooting from three in New York last week. Given the minutes, it’s hard to see Kispert not being worth your money. We have him projected as a 7X on play on both sites.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Orlando Magic – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
He’s not the highest-ceiling option on the entire slate, but he’s the leading man in that category at power forward. Antetokounmpo significantly outperformed his projections on Christmas Day with a 60-fantasy point outing and should be a full go here against a weak Orlando defense. We project his ceiling above 70 points here.
Top Value: Nathan Knight vs. New York Knicks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
He’s only power forward eligible on DraftKings, but Knight is certainly worth a look here if the Timberwolves continue to play without their entire frontcourt. The Knicks are missing a ton of forwards and bigs, and Knight received 29 minutes last time out against the Celtics. After putting up over 40 fantasy points in that one, he’s going to be on everyone’s radar Tuesday.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Jokic has the highest overall ceiling on both sites across all positions, and for very good reason. The big man gets the Warriors here, who historically have not defended post players well and now don’t have Draymond Green to defend him. Our projections would indicate Jokic could push for an 80-point night and should hit value here and then some in a great matchup.
Top Value: Omer Yurtseven vs. Orlando Magic – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Bam Adebayo is out with a thumb injury, and Yurtseven continues to be the guy for Miami. He’s outperformed his projections in 11 of the last 12 games and was the recipient of a whopping 33 minutes against Orlando this weekend. Our model sets him as a 6X play on FanDuel and a 7X play on DraftKings, and should he exceed our projections once again, he’ll be one of the top value plays on the slate.
