In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 16 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Travis Kelce (2nd)
- Dallas Goedert (5th)
- Kyle Pitts (6th)
- CJ Uzomah (11th)
- Cole Kmet (19th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5 total)
As is so often the case, Kelce has the highest projections in our models at the tight end position. (This week’s top-ranked tight end, George Kittle, isn’t on the main slate.) Kelce leads our Tournament Model on DraftKings this week, where he’s the most expensive tight end. On FanDuel, he’s cheaper than Mark Andrews.
Naturally, that makes Kelce the better play in a vacuum on FanDuel. Anytime the highest projected player isn’t the most expensive, they’re a value. We don’t play DFS in a vacuum, though (it would be impossible to breathe)! This is why Kelce is popping in our Tournament Model.
Kelce’s Ownership Projections are likely to be somewhat less on DraftKings, where he’s less of a clear value. Relative value is great and all, but far less important if Kelce explodes for a 44 point game like he did last week. Once the games start, salary doesn’t matter – just points.
He clearly has the best odds at breaking the slate, making him an interesting game decision this week. Kelce had been in a bit of a rut before last week, with consecutive 5.7 (DraftKings) point performances. Both of those games came in easy Chiefs wins, while his explosion came in a tight game with the Chargers. This week the Chiefs are big favorites, so pairing Kelce with options from Pittsburgh makes some sense.
Kelce is, of course, currently on the COVID list. He’s reportedly vaccinated, so he has a shot at returning in time for the game. We could see a dip in Kelce’s ownership if he’s cleared late, though, which makes him an even better play this week.
Dallas Goedert ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) vs. New York Giants (40.5 total)
After a pair of 100-yard performances in a row, Goedert is a top-five option in our projections this week. He has a 31% target share over the past three games, which easily leads the league among tight ends (and would be top five among wide receivers.)
The issue, of course, is always Philadelphia’s extremely low passing rate. They’re the only team in the league to run the ball more than they pass, which makes volume hard to come by even at a 30+ percent target share. That’s a concern this week, as the Eagles are one of the biggest favorites on the slate.
The last time Philadelphia played the Giants, Goedert was targeted only three times and posted his worst game of the season – though it was because of an Eagles offensive meltdown and not a blowout win. That was fairly fluky as the Eagles are rightfully favored this time despite their prior performance. Goedert has performed better as a favorite this year:
(FanDuel scoring, per our Trends tool)
All of that is to say Goedert should be fine this week, with upside beyond his price tag on both sites. He has the fourth-best Ceiling Projection but the sixth-highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. He’s a better bargain on FanDuel where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Kyle Pitts ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Detroit Lions (42.5 total)
As we’ve discussed in this space before, Pitts continues to be priced for his talent as opposed to his production. He has only two games this season with double-digit FanDuel points, both of which came an eternity ago. His last eight games have been under 10 points, with only two of them hitting his salary-based expectations (and even then, just barely).
Still, that talent is tantalizing this week. We know how athletic Pitts is, and he’s taking on a bad Lions team that struggles to defend the pass generally, ranking 26th in DVOA. Detroit has also been particularly vulnerable to tight ends as of late, allowing both Denver and Chicago tight ends (as units) to top 24 points on FanDuel.
Pitts is a much more explosive option than any of the tight ends on those teams (with apologies to Noah Fant), so his upside is tremendous. On the other hand — he’s failed in great spots before — he caught only two passes for 26 yards against the 31st ranked (also DVOA) Jaguars passing defense.
All of that makes Pitts an uncertain cash game play, though he does lead our Cash Game Model on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments, though. His ownership has been in the single digits for the last four weeks, as many DFS players have given up on him (at least for this season). Catching his breakout game at low ownership would be a huge edge on the field, especially given the scarcity of big tight end scores most weeks.
Besides the Cash Game Model, Pitts leads three of our other models on FanDuel, including the Tournament Model.
CJ Uzomah ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (45.5 total)
Uzomah continues to stand out in our DraftKings models. He leads three of them this week, including the Cash Game Model. The reason for that is Uzomah’s consistency. He continues to draw just enough targets and produce just enough, to project well on a weekly basis. He hasn’t had any big games since mid-October, though, keeping his salary reasonable.
I wouldn’t expect anything different from Uzomah this week. He’s very likely to draw another five or so targets with the Bengals as slight favorites. Given the talented trio of Bengals receivers, he’s competing for targets with, his upside isn’t much more than that, though.
To have any kind of ceiling performance, he’ll need to find the end zone. He hasn’t done that since Week 7, and his underlying metrics suggest that isn’t a fluke. His .19 red zone opportunities per game is one of the lowest of any starting tight ends. As an example, Evan Engram has .38 opportunities per game on the season — exactly twice what Uzomah has — and has only scored two touchdowns on the year.
Regardless, Uzomah is a solid play on DraftKings, where his Pts/Sal leads the slate. If you’re like me and prefer to spend as little salary on tight ends as you can get away with, Uzomah is one of the better options this week.
Cole Kmet ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks (43 total)
Kmet is the alternative to Uzomah at the cheap range this week. It will be interesting to see where ownership projections come in since our scoring projections are very similar. We have Uzomah projected slightly higher than Kmet, but not to a degree that would justify eating the chalk, provided you can find the extra $300 in salary to get up to Kmet.
The matchup favors Kmet heavily this week. Seattle has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends on the slate. They’ve allowed tight ends to average 6.9 points above salary-based expectations on the year — the next worst team allows an extra two points.
A couple of points here: while defense vs. position is largely irrelevant, this is one of those tail cases that might actually matter. The difference between teams in the middle is likely noise, but when a team stands out this much, there’s generally a reason. Second, matchups matter more for tight ends:
DraftKings tight ends with an Opponent Plus/Minus score of 5.0 or better, all time.
It’s not pictured in that screenshot, but tight ends facing a team with an Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed of five or more post an “upside” score 17% of the time. That’s noticeably higher than their 8.2% ownership.
Beyond the historical trends, Kmet has seen a noticeable uptick in usage as of late. Across the past four games, he averaged eight targets per contest. With the Bears as solid underdogs, that’s a good sign for his chances this week.
Kmet is my favorite cheap tight end for tournaments this week. Ryan Hodge agrees with me — or at least his model does. Kmet leads the Hodge Model this week on DraftKings.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Mark Andrews ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 total)
Andrews trails only Kelce in Ceiling Projection this week, as he looks to follow up on his 30-point DraftKings performance in his last outing. He had only two games with double-digit targets in the Ravens’ first nine games this year.
He’s hit the mark in four of the last five while picking up nine in the other. As mentioned in Kelce’s writeup, Andrews is the more expensive player on FanDuel. Counterintuitively, that might make him a better play there. The salaries are close on both sites, but ownership is likely to condense a bit on the cheaper of the two on both sites.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Carolina Panthers (43 total)
Gronkowski trails only Andrews among tight ends in targets over the past five weeks (since Gronk came back from injury.) This week, Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are both out, with Mike Evans questionable. That’s a lot of vacated targets for the team with the highest pass rate in the league, some of which are likely to head Gronkowski’s way (with or without Evans).
Cameron Brate ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) is a sneaky option as well. He’s priced at the minimum on both sites. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bucs used more two tight end sets given how depleted they’ll be at receiver, but that relies more on Evans missing the game. Brate has 19 targets over the past five weeks with the Bucs at (mostly) full strength. He should see more this week.
