In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 15 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Ezekiel Elliott (12th)
- Devonta Freeman (15th)
- James Robinson (16th)
- Elijah Mitchell (18th)
- Myles Gaskin (33rd)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at New York Giants (44.5 total)
Elliott is an uncomfortable option on FanDuel this week. The Cowboys’ nominal lead back has struggled while dealing with knee issues. He’s failed to top 70 total yards in five straight contests. Tony Pollard is also expected to return to the Cowboys lineup – though Elliott didn’t see much of a bump in usage without Pollard. His 18 opportunities (carries + targets) were right in line with his recent usage with Pollard healthy.
With all of that out of the way, Elliott is at a massive discount on FanDuel this week. I’ve rechecked the pricing multiple times because it seemed off, but it’s true. I can’t recall ever seeing a player $600 less on FanDuel than DraftKings (for the unfamiliar, FanDuel has a $60,000 salary cap, compared to $50,000 on DraftKings).
The discount isn’t due to matchup either. The Giants rank 27th in DVOA against the run and have been a favorite opponent of Elliot’s throughout his career. He scored over 23 points in each of his last meetings with the Giants, per our Trends Tool.
Dallas also has a top-five team total and are favored by double digits, both good signs on the Vegas front for Elliott. Betting on Zeke as a big favorite is a profitable strategy:
All things considered, the value on Elliott is too good to pass up in FanDuel cash games. He’s the leader of our Cash Game Model there and checks in with the second-best Pts/Sal among running backs.
Devonta Freeman ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
Just ahead of Elliott in our FanDuel Pts/Sal is Freeman. Freeman has solidified his position as the Ravens’ lead back, handling at least ten carries in six straight contests. He also has a solid 5.4 targets per game in that span. He’s not quite a premier receiving back, but a solid contribution is a welcome addition to his game.
He’s also ridiculously cheap for a borderline bellcow back. Backup Latavius Murray has only three carries and two targets over the past two weeks, and the Ravens clearly prefer Freeman. (Though frustratingly, not at the goal line. Murray handled the Ravens’ only red-zone rushing attempt last week.)
Quarterback Lamar Jackson’s health adds an interesting dynamic to the discussion here. The Packers are much more easily attacked on the ground, ranking 24th in DVOA against the rush. Normally for the Ravens, that means Jackson. However, Jackson is dealing with an ankle sprain and could have limited mobility if he does play.
On the one hand, that should logically lead to more opportunities for Freeman. On the other, it could put a dent in the overall offensive output from Baltimore. I’m of the mind that the former outweighs the latter, though.
Freeman is also a good value on DraftKings this week, ranking fourth in Pts/Sal. He leads one of our Pro Models on both sites in Week 15.
James Robinson ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) vs. Houston Texans (39.5 total)
Of course, most of the hype this week is centered around Robinson. Our Ownership Projections have him as the most popular back on both sites this weekend. It’s easy to see why “RB1Son” was tremendous last season before he was shackled to now-former head coach Urban Meyer.
Meyer infamously was not a fan of Robinson, refusing to play him at times despite the running back coaches calling Robinson’s name. I’m not one to speculate on why that may be. However, I am willing to say that it’s unlikely Darrell Bevel has a similar distaste for their most talented back.
Bevell’s offenses are known for using the run game to set up deep passing, which is perfect for Robinson’s skill set. It’s also good timing since the Jaguars play the Texans, who rank 28th against the run this season.
The stars are aligning for Robinson here, who should see an uptick in both volume and efficiency this week. All of the relevant news broke after salaries were released, making him an obvious value on both sites. I prefer him on DraftKings, where his pass-game work is more valuable. (Over seven targets per game pre-Meyer in Jacksonville.) He’s a solid play on both sites, leading one Pro Model on each.
Elijah Mitchell ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
Mitchell is still in the concussion protocol as of Friday, so be sure to keep up with the news surrounding his status as we approach kickoff. However, it’s a great spot for him if he’s able to get cleared in time.
Mitchell has missed two of the last five games for San Francisco but has looked no worse for wear when active. After missing Week 11, he got back-to-back 25+ opportunity games before suffering the knee/concussion combination that knocked him out again.
That would lead me to believe that the 49ers are playing things safe with their running backs. Some teams activate players but use them in a limited role (Austin Ekeler on Thursday night against the Chiefs being a prime example). Others prefer to rest players unless they’re ready for a full workload – think the Packers with Aaron Jones (though his “full workload” is far less than Mitchell’s). This is a long way of saying that we don’t need to worry about Mitchell’s usage if he’s activated before Sunday’s game.
It’s a great matchup if he is, as the 49ers are big favorites and taking on a Falcons team that’s allowed some big numbers to opposing backs. Eight of the Falcons 13 opponents this year have scored at least 25 DraftKings points at the running back position. That’s a great sign for Mitchell, who handled all but two of the (running back) carries in his last two games.
Mitchell is a far better value on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. That’s where he leads two of our Pro Models.
If Mitchell is inactive, be sure to check our Player Models to see how the 49ers’ backfield is projecting.
Myles Gaskin ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (41 total)
Gaskin is the leader in our Cash Game Model (among others) on DraftKings this week, as he draws the league’s best matchup with the Jets. The Jets’ +6.7 Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed on DraftKings leads the league this season.
This one honestly doesn’t require a ton of analysis. Gaskin has a solid role, averaging just under 13 carries and just under five targets per game. (Not counting his early exit in Week 4.) While not quite a bellcow, that should be more than enough against the Jets.
Assuming this game goes according to oddsmaker’s expectations, he should also see an uptick in carries. He’s averaging 17 per game in the Dolphins’ current four-game win streak, including 23 in the last meeting with the Jets.
Gaskin and his quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) both lead their respective positions in our DraftKings Cash Game model. Rostering them together locks in exposure to every touchdown against the league’s worst defense. At only $11,3000 in combined DraftKings salary, that’s a viable cash game option this week.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Najee Harris ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) vs. Tennessee Titans (43 total)
After a scorching start to his career, Harris has fallen off the radar a bit. His unsustainable target share … didn’t sustain, leaving him to rely on his rushing production to put up fantasy points. That’s not ideal behind a terrible Steelers offensive line. Still, he’s one of the true renaming every-down backs in the league.
He has 312 opportunities on the season, easily leading the league. (Jonathon Taylor is second with 284.) That kind of volume usually costs around $9,000 on DraftKings, but Harris is only $7,800.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (44 total)
Speaking of workhorse running backs, Mixon is the league leader in carries after averaging almost 24 per game over his last four. As you can infer from him being behind Taylor in opportunities, his pass game involvement leaves something to be desired. Still, with Taylor off the main slate, there’s no better option for locked-in carries than Mixon. He’s a better FanDuel play despite his price since the lack of catches hurts less there.
He ranks third in Ceiling projections, behind only Harris and Mitchell, on FanDuel.
Aaron Jones ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Baltimore Ravens (43.5 total)
With Jones expected to be overlooked this week, he’s the leader of our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings. He’s projecting for under 5% ownership, despite a reasonable price and a solid Week 14 in which he scored two touchdowns. Jones is historically a boom-or-bust option, with this year being no different.
He has four games under 10 DraftKings points on the season but dropped a 40-ball on the Lions in Week 2. We never know when those Jones games will pop up, but rostering him at low ownership when they do is extremely valuable for large-field tournaments.
James Conner ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-13) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
Conner is the FanDuel Minimalist Tournament Model leader, thanks largely to his massive touchdown equity. Arizona is expected to mollywhop the Lions this week and have the slate’s best team total. That’s perfect for a player like Conner, who has 14 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Cardinals should put him in position to score frequently this week and are unlikely to use Chase Edmonds around the goal line. (Conner has 1.06 opportunities per game inside the five-yard line, Edmonds only .13.)
A sub-4% owned Conner going for three touchdowns – which isn’t out of the question – would certainly be in every winning FanDuel lineup this week.
