In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 15 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- George Kittle (1st)
- Mike Gesicki (8th)
- Zach Ertz (10th)
- CJ Uzomah (15th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
George Kittle ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
Kittle is among our top-ranked tight ends. It’s easy to understand why, as Kittle has a ridiculous 27 targets over the past two weeks. The Niners are somewhat banged up at wide receiver, and Deebo Samuel is being used more in the backfield. That leaves a lot of targets for their star tight end.
Kittle also is blessed with a great matchup this week. San Francisco has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate. Atlanta also features the 29th-ranked passing defense by DVOA. There’s little more we could ask for from Kittle this week, and it’s at an especially opportune time with Kelce off the main slate.
The decision then comes down to whether Kittle is worth his salary. He offers a clear (projected) edge over the rest of the field but comes at an equally high salary premium. Kittle is a full $1,100 clear of the field on DraftKings and would be tied for fifth in salary if he were a wide receiver. (There aren’t many wide receivers who project for as many targets as Kittle, making this an apt benchmark to measure him by.)
On FanDuel, things are a bit closer. He’s only $400 more expensive than Mark Andrews, with much higher projections overall. That makes Kittle an obvious play there, where he’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. (Of course, given how obvious he is, that might mean a tournament fade is on order. Our Ownership Projections on FanDuel have him much more popular than Andrews.)
On DraftKings, he’s not quite the Pts/Sal bargain but is expected to be significantly less rostered. This explains his standing in our Tournament Model there – he’s the leader. It’s rarely a good idea to roster the most popular tight end in tournaments, so I’d keep my Kittle tournament exposure to DraftKings. He’s a solid FanDuel cash game play, though.
Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-10) vs. New York Jets (42 total)
As is often the case, Gesicki is priced in the awkward middle-range of tight ends. It’s an uncomfortable spot to roster players in. You aren’t getting the savings of the lower end nor the ceiling of the top players. It’s probably best avoided in cash but has some value in tournaments.
The Dolphins are expected to beat the Jets easily this week and are one of the largest favorites on the slate. Normally that drives us away from passing-game options, but that might not be correct here. The Dolphins had a similar spread last week against the Giants. Gesicki drew 11 targets in that one, his most since Week 3.
So we can reasonably assume the volume is strong for Gesicki. The question, then, is what does he do with it. The Jets rank 26th in DraftKings points allowed to tight ends this year. They also rank dead last in overall DVOA against the pass. I’d say we can bank on solid efficiency for Gesicki.
Of course, he needs to find the endzone to truly pay off in tournaments. Some of the cheaper tight ends certainly will this week, and it’s hard to outscore them without crossing the goal line. That’s been a struggle all season for Gesicki. He ranks fourth in receptions among tight ends on the year but outside of the top 25 in scores.
He’s likely due for some touchdown regression, but part of that discrepancy is explained by the lack of scoring from Miami. If they’re able to post a big number as a team, it’s likely Gesicki has a big day. His volume makes him a better play on full-PPR DraftKings. That’s where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Zach Ertz ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-13) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
Ertz is seeing a solid 5.4 targets per game since joining the Cardinals and is the TE5 in PPR scoring in that span. That was with mostly backup quarterbacks in Arizona, and we can expect more from Ertz with Kyler Murray under center. The Cardinals also have the week’s highest team total, as they take on an awful Lions defense.
So this week was setting up very well for Ertz, even before the De’Andre Hopkins news. Hopkins is out for the year, which frees up a lot of targets in this passing attack. Since Ertz joined the Cardinals, Hopkins and Christian Kirk are the only players with a higher target share than him.
More impactful than the overall targets, is Ertz’s red-zone role. Hopkins scored eight touchdowns in ten games and led the team in red-zone opportunities. Guess who’s second? In a game in which the Cardinals are expected to score over 30 points, that’s huge.
Ertz is also a screaming value on FanDuel, where he’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. It’s really between him or Kittle for cash games there. Tournaments are a different story, with Ertz leading the Ownership Projections on FanDuel. While it’s counterintuitive given the salary, he might just be a better tournament play on DraftKings.
Either way, he’s standing out in our FanDuel models this week. He’s the leader in the Cash and Tournament Models there, as well as one of our Pro Models.
CJ Uzomah ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (44 total)
Uzomah is the requisite cheap DraftKings tight end this week. Competition for targets is fierce in Cincinnati, but Uzomah has been able to eke out six in each of the last two games. Naturally, he hasn’t done much with them, or he wouldn’t be priced where he is. Fantasy is a volume game, and Uzomah is selling volume cheaply this week.
With the Bengals as slight underdogs, it’s also a better than usual time to target their passing attack. Quarterback Joe Burrow has at least 34 passing attempts in all but one of the Bengals’ six losses. He’s only topped 32 attempts once in a win, so we can project a solid boost in targets for all of his pass-catchers.
Of course, the matchup isn’t great. The Broncos are the toughest team for tight ends, based on Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on DraftKings. This can be overcome with a few short catches at Uzomah’s price point, but it’s not the most encouraging sign.
If you’re looking to go cheap at tight end, Uzomah isn’t a terrible choice. That’s about the most encouraging thing I can say in this spot, but you get what you pay for with near-minimum-priced players.
He leads three of our Pro Models – including the Cash Game Model – on DraftKings.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Mark Andrews ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
Andrews is my favorite tournament tight end this weekend. We have him below 5% ownership on both sites, as the field condenses on Kittle. Kittle is the better play on paper, but is he six or seven times as likely as Andrews to be the highest-scoring tight end this week?
I’d argue he’s not, as the game lines up nicely for Andrews. Baltimore is the biggest underdog they’ve been in any game since the Lamar Jackson era began, which should mean increased passing volume. Even if Jackson sits, Andrews should be fine. He had 11 catches for 115 yards and a score with Tyler Huntley under center last week. In fact, I’d prefer Jackson to sit for Andrew’s sake. While it hurts the overall scoring expectation, Huntley is more likely to check down to his tight end than Jackson.
It appears Jackson will play, but it’s not definitive yet. The best case scenario might be Jackson playing but with limited mobility due to his ankle injury. That would force Jackson to throw more instead of taking off with his legs. Either way, Andrews is a great leverage play. He’s the leader of our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dawson Knox ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (44.5 total)
Knox trails only Andrews and Kittle in Ceiling Projections this week on DraftKings. It’s not the best matchup with Carolina being tough on tight ends, but the Bills do have one of the week’s higher totals. With Emmanuel Sanders out for the game, Knox could see a slight uptick in his targets too. Like Ertz and Gesicki, Knox’s salary means he needs a touchdown to pay off in this spot. His odds of doing so are probably a lot higher than his minuscule ownership, so he’s worth mixing into some tournament lines.
