In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 15 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Cooper Kupp (1st)
- Davante Adams (2nd)
- Gabriel Davis (38th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.5 total)
It’s actually hard to overstate how dominant of a fantasy asset Kupp has been this year. He’s now the leader in targets, target share, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and catches on the season. Most by a fairly wide margin as well. Kupp only has one game this season below 10 targets, and the addition of Odell Beckham hasn’t slowed him down either. Kupp had a season-high 15 targets last week.
While last week’s massive share probably had more to do with the game environment and tight end Tyler Higbee being on the COVID list, we can still depend on double-digit looks for Kupp on a weekly basis. Seattle ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass, so those looks should be highly efficient as well.
All of that is to illustrate that Kupp will almost certainly have a solid game here. He’s been held under 20 DraftKings points only once in the past eight games and even then scored 18.6. But as the slate’s highest-priced receiver, we need a lot more than that for Kupp to be of value to us. Predicting his 30+ point games is a challenge, but they’re within his range of outcomes regardless of the matchup.
Those odds are probably slightly lower than usual in this one, with the Rams as moderate favorites in a low-total game with the Seahawks. Stafford’s overall passing volume will likely be on the lower side. However, it’s looking like Beckham will miss the game due to COVID. If OBJ is out, Kupp’s chances of a ceiling game rise considerably.
Regardless, Kupp is a strong play this week. Particularly on FanDuel, where he has the best Pts/Sal among receivers. He leads multiple Pro Models on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 15 though.
Davante Adams ($8,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-5) at Baltimore Ravens (43.5 total)
It’s strange to say, but Adams is a poor man’s Cooper Kupp from a fantasy perspective this season. Adams has a similar target share but trails Kupp in catches, yards, and touchdowns in a slower-paced Packers offense.
Both player’s profile similar this week as well. The Vegas Data is about the same, with the Packers and Rams both moderate favorites. (Though the Rams’ higher total favors Kupp.) Both opponents are also solid pass-funnel defenses. I’d guess that the Packers will be happy to keep the ball on the ground if they’re able to in this one.
Adams has been coming on a bit as of late, scoring four touchdowns over the past three games. We’ve been predicting positive touchdown regression for Adams for a while, and it seems to finally be here. He also has the better positional matchup. The Ravens allow a +1.0 Opponent Plus/Minus to the position on DraftKings. That’s the highest on the slate and one of only three teams with a positive number.
(DraftKings has priced wide receivers higher relative to other positions this year to account for their ceilings. This has led to more negative Opponent Plus/Minus scores than in the past. Receivers are more volatile than other positions, making them great for tournaments. DraftKings is seemingly trying to account for this with over-inflated pricing.)
Ultimately, the price difference between Adams and Kupp isn’t significant enough where the savings really matter on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the $500 makes a difference. That’s why two of our FanDuel Pro Models prefer Adams, compared to one on DraftKings.
Kupp is pretty clearly the safer cash game play this week. Both players have similar Ceiling Projections, though. That means that whoever has lower Ownership Projections on either site is the better tournament play.
Gabriel Davis ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (44.5 total)
It wouldn’t be the receiver breakdown without a DraftKings-specific cheapie. This week — that’s Gabe Davis — who stepped in as the Bills’ third receiver with Emmanuel Sanders exiting early in Week 14. Sanders will be missing again this week. That means we can expect Davis to replicate his 16% target share in an expected blowout of the Panthers.
The question, of course, is how many total pass attempts there will be in Week 15. Last week was the dream spot for passing volume with the Bills taking on the Buccaneers. Josh Allen attempted a season-high 54 passes, with eight heading Davis’s way. Allen has five games this season with under 30 passes, most of them in blowouts.
That makes five or so targets a more reasonable projection for Davis. That’s still a value at his current price, though. With the Sanders injury coming after Week 15 salaries were released, Davis is about $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings.
The type of routes Davis runs will be critical in this one. On the season, his average depth of target (aDOT) is 11.54 yards – similar to Stefon Diggs total. However, he ran much shorter routes in relief of Sanders last week, with an aDOT of only 5.4. That’s not a major concern (Sanders’ aDOT on the season is the highest on the team among players with more than three targets) but something to consider.
Davis is the leader in our DraftKings Cash Game Model and a near-must in that format. He has some tournament appeal, too (depending on ownership) since he could take on a more downfield role in this one.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Diontae Johnson ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs. Tennessee Titans (41.5 total)
Johnson’s target share has been massive without JuJu Smith-Schuster in the lineup. He has five straight games with at least 10 targets, scoring at least 14.3 DraftKings points in each of them. For most of that stretch, Johnson was priced below $7,000 on DraftKings, making him an obvious value.
His salary has caught up to his role though, making this a more interesting decision. He has two big games in that stretch, where he produced over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. Now at his current salary, he needs that to be a value here. The matchup doesn’t stand out, but Johnson can get there on volume alone if this game stays close or the Steelers fall behind.
Stefon Diggs ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (44.5 total)
We’re paying for the name recognition with Diggs, who’s priced as a top receiver (fourth-highest salary) despite being the WR10 in PPR scoring on the season. Still, the reduction of Sanders from the lineup could benefit Diggs from a volume standpoint. It certainly did last week when he saw 14 targets against Tampa. Unfortunately, he only caught seven of them for 74 yards and was held without a touchdown.
He’ll need to be more efficient in this one, with Allen unlikely to repeat his 54-attempt game from last week. That’s a big ask against the Panthers’ top-five pass defense, but not impossible. Diggs ranks fourth in Ceiling Projections on DraftKings this week.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (44 total)
Chase has at least eight targets in every Bengals loss since Week 2, and the Bengals are underdogs in this one. Assuming this game follows Vegas’s expectations, we could see another high-volume game for the rookie. It’s a below-average matchup with the Broncos, but all Chase needs is one or two deep connections to be a solid option here.
He’s a better deal on FanDuel, where he has a 94% Bargain rating.
Deebo Samuel ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-9) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Niners’ running back/receiver hybrid is a screaming value on FanDuel, where he trails only Kupp and Adams in Ceiling Projection. His usage in the running game hurts less there, as it’s only half-PPR scoring. Still, only drawing one target last week was a bad sign, as Deebo needs more pass-game work to have a shot at a top score.
Elijah Mitchell should be back in the 49ers’ backfield this week, which will hopefully move Samuel back to more of a traditional receiver role. The Falcons rank 29th against the pass this season, so that would be a welcome move.
Bonus Value Receiver
Laquon Treadwell ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (39.5 total)
If you’re against playing Davis for some reason (or need the extra $400 in salary), Treadwell has some appeal on DraftKings. He has 19 targets over the past three games and is one of the few options still available for the Jaguars. Each of those games produced at least four catches, which shouldn’t be hard to replicate against the terrible Texans defense. I still prefer Davis due to the quality of the offense, but Treadwell is a solid play.
Playing Treadwell and Davis together also opens up a ton of salary for tournaments, allowing you to pair Kupp and Adams in lineups. While I’m sure both Kupp and Adams will be popular, lineups featuring both of them are unlikely to be. Playing both viable cheap receivers makes those lineups a possibility.
