The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. New York Knicks – $11,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
As Curry guns for the all-time three-point record, he’s launched a ridiculous 15.2 threes on average over the last five games, which is a lot even for his standards. His Usage Rate has been 29.7% or higher in those contests and has twice reached 37% or higher. The Knicks rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and with another solid Usage Projection, our model loves Curry on this short slate. It doesn’t hurt that he’s shooting 51.1% from three over his career at Madison Square Garden.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
We’ll get into the Knicks’ COVID-19 mess shortly, but the big bit of news that’s relevant to Quickley is that Quentin Grimes — who was forced into action over the weekend without R.J. Barrett — has now been ruled out for Tuesday under the league’s health and safety protocols. The Knicks were already trying to get Quickley some more minutes this season, given his great play, and they’ll now have an easy way to do that with few other options at point guard. Quickley should hit 5X with ease.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
You can only play Harden at shooting guard on FanDuel, but he’s still worth discussing here, given the state of the Nets. Kevin Durant is currently questionable with right ankle soreness, Joe Harris remains out, and now the team has placed DeAndre Bembry and Jevon Carter into the league’s health and safety protocols along with two big men.
That means the backcourt should belong almost exclusively to Harden, and no shot coming out of his hands will be a bad one. Our model projects his ceiling could hit 70 fantasy points on both sites, which makes him one of the three highest-upside players on the slate.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Well, it’s a short slate. You’re going to play some guys from the same team. Brown will likely be chalky, but he’s the surefire top value play at shooting guard. Without Bembry, Carter, and Harris, Brown should be locked into a starting spot and close to 30 minutes here. Our projections have him going for about 5-6X on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
We have already touched on the issues with the Nets, who have five players in the league’s health and safety protocols, so they’re going to need Durant to suit up even though he’s dealing with ankle soreness. Assuming he plays our model projects he’ll have 60+ upside or greater, which is among the top on Tuesday’s slate. His +1.27 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel would indicate he’s in a decent spot here as well.
Editor’s note: Durant (ankle) is listed as questionable for Tuesday.
Top Value: Norman Powell vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Powell’s price has come down after a disappointing game against the Timberwolves, where he managed just 22.4 fantasy points on FanDuel and 24.5 on DraftKings. In the two games prior, he’d hit 32 or higher across the two sites. The minutes are still solid for Powell, who has seen at least 38+ over the last three games, and our model projects a 5X game should be on the horizon.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Brooklyn Nets – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Siakam’s game is heavily predicated on scoring inside, so the fact that the Nets are missing so many key pieces in the frontcourt should stand to benefit the Toronto forward. Our model thinks Siakam could approach 50+ ceiling territory here with a solid +8.95 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Top Value: Robert Covington vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Our model has Covington just under 5X value on FanDuel, making him a run-of-the-mill play at this position, but he seemed to be severely underpriced on DraftKings at just over $3K. We have Covington projected for around 30 minutes again — a plateau he’s reached in the last three games — and with that, he should be capable of soaring past 6X on DraftKings. He carries with him a 97% Bargain Rating there.
Center
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
You will notice a theme here, but the Knicks are also dealing with some COVID-related issues. Obi Toppin and R.J. Barrett are currently out of the rotation and in the league’s health and safety protocols, and Quentin Grimes has joined the list as well. That means Randle’s Usage Rate should be strong here — and we’re projecting him to surpass 26%.
He is coming off a rough eight-point game against the Bucks, but he did still post 10 rebounds and seven assists to stay consistent in the other categories. Assuming some more bounces go his way on Tuesday, this could be a fantastic price to pay for a guy our model thinks has the highest ceiling at power forward outside of Durant and the highest ceiling of any center.
Top Value: Nicolas Claxton vs. Toronto Raptors – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
As was the case with Covington earlier, this appears to be a misprice on Claxton. Without Aldridge, Millsap, and Johnson, the Nets’ healthy frontcourt players will consist of Claxton, Durant, Blake Griffin, and Day’Ron Sharpe. Griffin has averaged 10.3 minutes over the last three games, and Sharpe has played just 4.5 minutes on average in eight games this season.
With that, you can expect a heavy dose of Claxton here in a matchup where he has a +0.68 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.93 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His Projected Plus/Minus of +10.31 on DK is the second-highest on the slate after Quickley’s +10.88.
