In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 14 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Austin Ekeler (1st)
- Leonard Fournette (3rd)
- Elijah Mitchell (4th)
- Antonio Gibson (6th)
- Javonte Williams (10th)
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-10) vs. New York Giants (43 total)
Ekeler is the clear top fantasy back this week, as his Chargers take on the Giants defense. In addition to the incredibly strong matchup, Los Angeles could be missing key contributors on offense. Top Receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both in COVID protocols, with the latter testing positive and the former being a close contact.
The status of those two is incredibly impactful in deciding if Ekeler is worth paying up for this week. While he’s our highest projected back on both sites, he’s also the most expensive. Ekeler has 71 targets on the year, behind only Najee Harris (entering Week 14) among running backs. He’s third on the team behind Williams and Allen, who account for 45% of the Chargers targets on the year.
Allen’s absence, in particular, would be valuable for Ekeler. Williams is a downfield receiver, but Ekeler excels in many of the short-area routes that Allen generally runs. With Allen being more likely to miss (since he actually tested positive, as opposed to being a close contact), Ekeler is in a good spot to stand out on Sunday.
Beyond his value in the passing game, Ekeler’s 10-15 carries should bring some extra points this week. The Giants rank 31st in DVOA against the run and allow the eighth-most points to the position.
Ekeler’s salary makes him a challenge to play this week if Williams and Allen both play. He’s still a solid tournament option but less of a no-brainer. However, if either receiver – especially Allen – misses, Ekeler is a lock for all formats. His target share and 86% Bargain rating both make him more valuable on DraftKings, where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Leonard Fournette ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (53.5 total)
After starting the season in a committee, Fournette has emerged as a top-five fantasy back this season. Fournette is truly a testament to how important it is for running backs to play on a good offense. He has two fewer targets and 85 fewer carries on the season than Najee Harris (as an example.) However, Fournette has outscored him in PPR points. While I’m no talent evaluator, it’s safe to say Harris is the better back at the moment, yet Fournette is more productive on less opportunities.
The benefits to playing in such a strong offense are two-fold. First, backs are more likely to have positive game scripts when playing with a team that can put up points. Tampa Bay throws at the highest-rate above expectation, but this still matters. In three losses, Fournette has 23 carries (just below eight per game). In nine wins, he has 129 (14.33 per game).
Additionally, there are just more scoring opportunities to go around. Fournette has nine total touchdowns on the season, five of them coming over the last two weeks. Tampa is implied for the second-highest Vegas total on the slate, despite the tough matchup. Fournette should have plenty of chances to score. (This total has actually crept up a bit throughout the week, meaning smart money is on a high-scoring game.)
Fournette’s price has gotten a bit out of hand for a “needs a touchdown” type of player on DraftKings. However, he’s still a solid play there and leads our Tournament Model. However, he’s a steal on FanDuel, where he leads four of our models.
Elijah Mitchell ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Assuming full health (big if at this point), Mitchell is in a great spot this week. He’s had at least 22 carries and three targets in each of his last two games. He had an additional 27 carries but no targets in the preceding contest. He’s encouragingly being used in the passing game – and in negative game scripts – giving him some appeal even when the 49ers are trailing in games.
The matchup is solid, with Cincinnati allowing a +1.4 DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs on the year. The 49ers throw the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league. As favorites in this one, there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Only three games on the main slate have a total of 48 and above, with the rest falling below 43.5. We always want exposure to high scoring games, and Mitchell is the best path to that. He stands out on FanDuel, where he’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. He leads one of our Pro Models there as well.
Editor’s note: Mitchell is dealing with a knee and concussion and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. Be sure to monitor the Player Models for any updates in projections.
Antonio Gibson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (+4.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (48 total)
Gibson has been on a tear as of late, functioning as the three-down back fantasy players always believed he could be. He scored at least 21 DraftKings points in three of his last four targets and has drawn 13 targets the past two weeks.
That obviously correlates heavily with the loss of JD McKissic, the team’s passing-down back. McKissic has a 14% target share when healthy, compared to just under 10% for Gibson. Gibson has over 20% of Washington’s targets the past two weeks, though, when McKissic was out or left early.
McKissic is questionable to play Sunday but has yet to clear the concussion protocol as of Friday afternoon. His absence would make Gibson a great play, but Gibson is a good play either way. Dallas is a run funnel (fourth in DVOA against the pass, 19th against the run), and Gibson has run the ball very well lately. His $6,000 salary is reasonable for his expected workload, even with McKissic in.
The combination of his (potential) passing role and cheaper salary make Gibson stand out on DraftKings. He is the leader in Pts/Sal and one of our Pro Models there.
Javonte Williams ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (-10) vs. Detroit Lions (42.5 total)
Javonte is another back who benefited heavily from having the backfield to himself. Last week was Williams’ first game as a pro without Melvin Gordon active. Williams seized his opportunity, running for over 100 yards and adding a 6/76/1 receiving line, good for over 30 DraftKings points.
Like Gibson, Williams is still a strong play even if Gordon plays. (Our current projections have both McKissic and Gordon in, so any Williams projections are based on a split backfield.) Denver is one of the week’s biggest favorites at -10. They also have a good matchup, with the Lions ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA.
He’s still not a must-play, though, at least if Gordon is in. Williams is the better overall back, but Gordon is used more (and is more effective) around the goal line. Williams has three less rushing touchdowns and sees less red zone opportunities than Gordon on the season.
It’s unfortunate that this game kicks off in the later slate, as Gordon seems truly questionable (albeit on the right side of questionable) this week. Paradoxically, Williams might be a better tournament play – thanks to lower Projected Ownership – if he shares the backfield. My fellow cash game grinders should have a pivot plan in place Sunday afternoon, though. Williams is the leader in our Cash Game Model on DraftKings this week.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Saquon Barkley ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): New York Giants (+10) at Los Angeles Chargers (43 total)
Generally, I like to work through the higher projected backs first, but we’re starting with Barkley for a reason. With his game also taking place in the late window, he’s a logical pivot off of Williams at only $100 more. That could be needed because you’re uncomfortable playing Williams with Gordon in – my current position.
Or, if you find yourself trailing, a pivot to Barkley makes sense as well. We have Williams projected for slightly higher ownership in tournaments, but the discrepancy will be much higher in cash games. Barkley is currently projected for only 0.6 points less than Williams, so he has a solid chance of beating him out this week. If you’re trailing a block of lineups that likely have Williams, switching to Barkley increases your odds of winning greatly.
Joe Mixon ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
It’s an interesting week at running back. There’s a ton of solid plays, but outside of Ekeler, no backs project for 20 or more DraftKings points. Mixon is one of the few that’s close, though, and ranks top-five in Ceiling Projection.
It’s not a great matchup against the third-ranked 49ers rush defense. However, fantasy is a volume game. Mixon is one of (if not the) surest bets for volume on the Week 14 main slate. Over the last three contests, he’s averaging over 27 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. On a weak week for running backs, that could be enough for him to stand out even at reduced efficiency. He’s also playing in (as referenced above) one of only three games this week with a total of 48 or above. That’s a good sign for his chances of scoring a touchdown.
Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at New York Jets (43 total)
Kamara has been out of action the past four weeks, but unfortunately, his salary is still at pre-injury levels. That makes him a tough play since it seems likely that his workload is relatively limited in this one. However, he’s still Alvin Kamara, and he’s taking on the Jets’ league-worst defense.
Kamara has also performed poorly in his career with Taysom Hill under center. Hill detracts from Kamara’s red-zone role, as he’s known to run in some touchdowns himself. He also looks Kamara’s way less often in the passing game, targeting him only four times per game in four games together last season. (Kamara has averaged at least five targets per game every season in the NFL and over 6.6 targets per game throughout his career.)
Still, given the thin options at running back this week, Kamara could easily break the slate. If he sees his normal workload, he should torch this Jets defense. I prefer to wait and see before using players in my cash lineups, but he’s a solid tournament option.
He leads our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings.
