In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 14 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- Kyle Pitts (4th)
- Austin Hooper (14th)
- Jared Cook (16th)
- CJ Uzomah (17th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (48 total)
With the Chiefs tied for the highest Vegas total on the slate, their primary weapons were bound to stand out in our models. Kelce and Tyreek Hill combine for over a 50% target share on the year. The Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams are the only teams to have two players combine for a 50% target share, and the Rams do so with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, the latter of which is done for the season.
Point is, if the Chiefs live up to their expectations this week, it’s a near certainty that one of Hill or Kelce, and possibly both, will have a big game. So far this year, they’ve both topped 20 DraftKings points in the same game twice. Hill has six total games over that mark. Kelce has four. (To put it another way, half of Kelce’s big games included a big score from Hill, half didn’t.)
For what it’s worth, Kelce appears to be the better play this week. Las Vegas has struggled to defend the position, allowing a +2.9 Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends on FanDuel. Against receivers, that number is -1.9. They’ve also allowed three (!) different tight end units to score over 30 FanDuel points. Since Kelce gets over 90% of the Chiefs’ tight end targets, that’s another good sign for him.
Given both Chiefs’ salaries, neither is really a “must” on DraftKings. In fact, Kelce has a negative Projected Plus/Minus there due to his high salary. It’s a different story on FanDuel, though. Kelce leads the slate in Pts/Sal there. He also leads three of our Pro Models, including both the Cash Game and Tournament Models. He’s a borderline lock this week.
Kyle Pitts ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)
Despite mid-season flashes of brilliance, Pitts has largely disappointed this year:
Kyle Pitts’ fantasy finish by week among TEs:
Wk 1: 27
Wk 2: 10
Wk 3: 24
Wk 4: 20
Wk 5: 3
Wk 7: 2
Wk 8: 35
Wk 9: 13
Wk 10: 14
Wk 11: 26
Wk 12: 25
Wk 13: 21
He’s been a start-worthy (top 12) TE three times.— Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian) December 9, 2021
His pair of top-three finishes is obviously nice, but it’s not what fantasy drafters hoped early in the season. His price has slowly declined since those games. He’s the cheapest he’s been since Week 5 on both sites. Still, he’s being priced (and, to a degree, projected) based more on his talent than any production we’ve seen.
A large part of the problem has been the Falcons’ overall offense. They’ve scored 20 points only twice in their last six games (all without Calvin Ridley). The loss of Ridley has also allowed defenses to focus in on Pitts; he’s caught no more than four passes in a game in that span.
Still, DFS is a game of uncertainty, and we might be at the point of Pitts being a +EV play. Especially on DraftKings, where his Ownership Projection is projected at ninth among tight ends. Building a few lineups around Pitts this week (or for the next few weeks) could pay massive dividends if he pops off when the field has forgotten about him.
Of course, our models prefer him on FanDuel, where he’s relatively cheaper. He’s the seventh-most expensive tight end there, despite ranking fourth in Median Projection. He’s the only tight end other than Kelce to lead a FanDuel Model this week.
Austin Hooper ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (42.5 total)
Hooper continues to split time with David Njoku at tight ends for the Browns. However, he’s emerged as the leader of the group. Over the Browns’ last five games, he’s seen 23 targets to 19 for Njoku (and nine for Harrison Bryant).
Cleveland is also leaning more heavily on their tight ends following the release of Odell Beckham and various wide receiver injuries. Now, Bryant is out with a high-ankle sprain, and Njoku is on the COVID list. That could leave Hooper as the last man standing for a team that throws to tight ends a ton. (“Browns tight end” has a target share north of 35% on the season.)
Of course, Hooper will need to do something with those looks. In his last game (also against Baltimore), he saw three targets — but caught none of them. Still, that’s probably an anomaly. Baltimore doesn’t defend tight ends especially well (+1.8 DraftKings opponent Plus/Minus), nor do they have an imposing pass defense (27th in DVOA).
While there are other appealing cheap tight ends on DraftKings this week (more on that in a second), Hooper stands out if both Bryant and Njoku miss time this week. He currently leads one of our DraftKings Pro Models but could jump to the top once we get firm news on Njoku.
Jared Cook ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-10) vs. New York Giants (43 total)
Cook is fairly easy to analyze this season. He’s a solid value if he scores a touchdown, and if he doesn’t, he isn’t. This year, Cook has reached salary-based expectations five times on DraftKings. He scored a touchdown in three of those (and a two-point conversion in the other).
The only exception to the rule was Week 1, in which Cook saw a season-high eight targets.
I wouldn’t bank on a massive target count for Cook this week. The Chargers are double-digit favorites and should be able to coast through much of the second half. That leaves a touchdown as a necessary condition to an OK game from Cook.
The Chargers have the third-highest implied total on the slate, so it’s not unreasonable to think he finds the endzone. Still, it’s not a bet I’m willing to make on a player responsible for only 14% of his team’s receiving touchdowns on the season. (If we round up on the Chargers 26.5 total and assume four touchdowns, Cook has a 45% or so chance of scoring at least one. If we pencil them in for three, his odds are 35% or so.)
The likeliest scenario for Cook is another three or four catch performance. That’s not terrible at his salary, but unlikely to win you any tournaments. He does lead one of our Pro Models on DraftKings, however, thanks to his solid Floor and Median Projection.
CJ Uzomah ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
Uzomah has only a 10% target share thanks to having three high-level receivers to contend with. However, he’s been highly efficient with his looks. Uzomah has at least three catches in six of the Bengals’ last seven games.
That’s probably enough at his $3,000 DraftKings salary to pay off, particularly for cash games. That explains why he’s fifth in the Cash Game model on DraftKings this week. (Plus, it’s generally better to go as cheap as reasonably possible there.)
He also has two games with multiple touchdowns, giving him a narrow path to a ceiling game. This game is one of only four on the slate with a total over 43.5, so his odds are somewhat better than usual, especially against a 49ers team that has the league’s third-best run defense. Uzomah isn’t the most exciting play, but he trails only Hooper in Pts/Sal this week.
Hooper’s Median Projection trails Cook and Hooper by roughly 1-1.5 points.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Rob Gronkowski ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (53.5 total)
Dare we say it’s been vintage Gronk this season? In six healthy games, he’s topped 20 DraftKings points three times and been under 13, just one. Particularly with Antonio Brown on the shelf, Gronk’s target share has been exceptional — over 20% in the last three weeks. That’s 20% of the league’s pass-heaviest offense too.
Gronk is projected to be less owned than Kelce (and George Kittle) on FanDuel, making him an ideal leverage play there. On DraftKings, all of the expensive tight ends are expected to be less popular. Gronkowski could easily emerge from that group with the highest score in Week 14.
George Kittle ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
The idea behind playing Kittle is similar to Gronk. Kelce is expected to be massively popular this week on FanDuel, so Kittle outscoring him would provide a ton of leverage on the field. Gronkowski both projects better, is cheaper, and projects for lower ownership, so I won’t be looking Kittle’s way. However, he’s not a bad play.
Bonus Value Tight End
James O’Shaughnessy ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans
Given all the injuries to Jaguars pass-catchers, they’ve had little choice but to target O’Shaughnessy the past two weeks. He has 11 targets in that span, which is great for a sub-3K tight end. I’m always a fan of spending as little at tight end as possible. The position is extremely high variance, and I prefer my high-variance bets to be cheap. Unless I can find the salary for a top tight end, he’s probably going to be my cash game player this week. (Browns’ injury situation could change that as well, with Hooper only $500 more.)
