NFL Week 13 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like his usual stud self of late. He’s scored 16.42 DraftKings points or less in each of the past two weeks, but those were against quality defensive teams in the Dolphins and Browns. He draws a much easier matchup this week vs. the Steelers, who have not been nearly the same defensive team that they’ve been in the past. They rank just 27th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, so Jackson should be able to bounce back in this matchup.
Jackson stands out as a particularly appealing target on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. Jackson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
Taylor Heinicke has been a roller coaster this season. He’s scored at least 22.22 DraftKings points in five contests, and he’s scored 15.74 or fewer in the other five. That gives him a wide range of outcomes, but there are reasons to believe in him in Week 13. He’s taking on the Raiders, who rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA.
This game also figures to be one of the best of the week. Scoring is down across the NFL, so the 48.0 total on this game is actually the third-highest mark on the slate. This game also features a 1.5-point spread, so this is expected to be a back-and-forth affair. Those tend to be the best games for fantasy.
Quick Hits
Tom Brady is expected to be the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings, and he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Falcons. However, it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers have some drastic home/road offensive splits this season. They’ve averaged 38.4 points per game at home this season, but that figure drops to just 25.8 on the road. That has unsurprisingly had an impact on Brady’s fantasy numbers: he’s averaging approximately 10 fewer points per game on the road than in Tampa Bay.
Kirk Cousins has quietly had a very good season, averaging right around 20 fantasy points per game. He’s not expected to garner much ownership this week, but he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Lions. They rank just 28th in pass defense DVOA, and the Vikings’ implied team total of 27.0 ranks fourth on the slate.
Billy Ward highlights a few other quarterbacks who deserve consideration in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown, including Justin Herbert and Derek Carr.
Running Back
Stud
This is an amazing week for the running back position. There are elite options at virtually every level of the pricing spectrum, and you can make legit arguments for multiple players for the top overall spot.
If you’re paying up at the position, you can’t go wrong with Jonathan Taylor. He’s been incredible this season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on DraftKings. The lone exception was last week’s contest vs. the Buccaneers, and he still finished with a solid 19.7 DraftKings points.
He takes the field in an excellent matchup this week vs. the Texans. Not only are the Texans a bad team, but they’re bad in the perfect kind of way for running backs. They rank sixth in pass defense DVOA and 25th in rush defense, so teams are much better off pounding them repeatedly in the run game.
The Colts are also among the largest favorites of the week at 10 points, and large favorites tend to provide plenty of value at running back. Taylor has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.00 on DraftKings in eight games as a favorite of at least a touchdown.
There are better options in our NFL Models on a points-per-dollar basis, but Taylor leads all running backs in Ceiling Projection by a sizable margin.
Value
Antonio Gibson is priced like a value, but he should provide stud-like production vs. the Raiders. Gibson has dominated the rushing attempts for the Football Team this season, but the one thing that has kept him from joining the truly elite at the position is a lack of production in the passing game. He averaged just two targets and 1.8 receptions per game from Week 2 through Week 11.
However, the injury to J.D. McKissic changes everything. McKissic was the primary reason Gibson wasn’t involved in the passing game, so it’s not surprising that Gibson racked up seven targets after McKissic suffered a concussion last week. Gibson was literally a wide receiver in college, so he’s more than capable of filling that role.
Gibson is also in an outstanding spot vs. the Raiders. They’ve been dreadful against the run this season, giving Gibson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on DraftKings. That’s the third-highest mark at the position.
Overall, Gibson is projected for an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.03 on DraftKings, which is one of the top marks of the entire season. He’s a lock for cash games, and he deserves consideration as a chalk play in tournaments.
Quick Hits
Leonard Fournette broke the slate last week, finishing with 100 rushing yards and four total touchdowns vs. the Colts. If he can do that in a tough matchup, his ceiling is astronomical vs. the lowly Falcons. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
D’Andre Swift has been ruled out for the Lions, which means Jamaal Williams should serve as their feature back this week. Williams isn’t as explosive as Swift, but he’s a capable pass-catcher and has averaged 4.3 yards per carry this season. He has a very safe floor for his price tag, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Elijah Mitchell has been one of the MVPs of seasonal fantasy leagues this season, and he’s provided plenty of DFS value when healthy as well. He’s coming off a season-high 30.8 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Deebo Samuel. Samuel has siphoned plenty of rushing work away from Mitchell recently, including four rushing touchdowns.
Don’t forget about Alexander Mattison. He’ll draw the start at running back in place of Dalvin Cook, and Mattison has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points in two games without Cook this season.
With all the elite running back options this week, someone like Joe Mixon could fly a bit under-the-radar. Billy Ward explains why that would be a mistake in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Wide receiver isn’t nearly as fruitful as running back this week. Using a running back in the flex spot is an absolute no-brainer in cash games, and it should be the default strategy in tournaments as well.
Cooper Kupp occupies the top spot at the position in our NFL Models, just like he’s done for most of the season. He leads the league with an average of 11.5 targets per game, and he’s racked up 31% of the Rams’ targets overall. He also leads the league in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per game, so he’s been the clear top option at the position for fantasy purposes.
He ranks first at the position in our NFL Models in terms of Median and Ceiling Projection, and he also ranks first in terms of projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA this season, and Pro Football Focus gives Kupp a sizable advantage this week vs. the Jaguars’ cornerbacks.
Finally, Kupp stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He should be a staple of cash-game lineups, and he’ll be among the highest-owned receivers in tournaments as well.
Value
Josh Reynolds is priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings, and he has plenty of appeal at that salary. He’s been out of the lineup for most of the season, but he’s played on 86 of a possible 97 snaps over the past two weeks. He’s also coming off his best game of the season in his last contest, finishing with 16.0 DraftKings points thanks to three catches for 70 yards and a touchdown.
The way he scored his fantasy points is also noteworthy. He gobbled up an eye-popping 77.46% of the Lions’ air yards, which is an absurd number. That suggests that his production wasn’t necessarily fluky, so fantasy owners can fire him up with confidence in a great matchup vs. the Vikings.
Quick Hits
Ben Roethlisberger has been dreadful this season, so it’s not surprising that this will reportedly be his final year in Pittsburgh. However, his poor play hasn’t dragged down Diontae Johnson. Johnson has been an absolute target-hog of late, racking up at least 13 targets in five of his past six games. That kind of volume makes him very appealing at his current price tag across the industry.
The Buccaneers will be without Antonio Brown once again, which means Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should carry larger workloads than usual. Both players were massive disappointments last week, so it’s possible they carry a bit lower ownership as well.
DeVante Parker has been activated from the IR, and he’ll suit up this week vs. the Giants. Jaylen Waddle has emerged as the Dolphins’ clear top wide receiver, but I still think there’s enough room for Parker to have a role. He’s dirt-cheap at $3,900 on DraftKings, and he’s scored 16.5 and 17.7 DraftKings points the last two times he’s taken the field.
No one is capable of filling Samuel’s shoes for the 49ers, but Brandon Aiyuk might be asked to try. Aiyuk has had a disappointing sophomore season, but he averaged 15.73 DraftKings points in six games without Samuel last year.
It’s been a rough year for Laviska Shenault truthers, but Billy Ward says Shenault might be worth another shot in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
This might be the least-studly tight end slate of the year. No one is priced above $6,000 on DraftKings, and the top options are all expected to garner minimal ownership.
George Kittle could be the exception. Kittle has been a disappointment of late, finishing with a negative Plus/Minus in his past two games on DraftKings. Unlike Aiyuk, Kittle’s numbers were also worse in games without Samuel last season.
However, Kittle does draw an excellent matchup this week vs. the Seahawks. Their defense has struggled against the pass this season, and they’ve been particularly vulnerable against opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed the second-most targets per game to the position, so Kittle can do some damage in this spot. I’m not sure if the 49ers will throw enough for that to actually happen, but it’s within the realm of possibility.
Value
Foster Moreau stands out as the obvious value tight end this week. The Raiders have ruled out Darren Waller, and Moreau will occupy Waller’s usual role in the offense. He dominated in his only other start in place of Waller this season, catching all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to command massive ownership, but he’s a lock-and-load option in cash games on DraftKings. He’s priced near the minimum at just $2,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Quick Hits
If you’re looking for a pivot off Moreau in tournaments, Brevin Jordan is interesting at $2,500. His salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in an elite spot vs. the Colts. They’ve been abysmal against opposing tight ends this season, giving Jordan an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.8 on DraftKings.
Logan Thomas is another player who seems underpriced. He’s not quite as cheap as Moreau or Jordan, but he was priced closer to $5,000 on DraftKings before getting hurt. He stepped basically right back into a full workload last week, and he could see a few additional targets with McKissic unavailable.
Zach Ertz has actually seen a bump in production without Kyler Murray, and Bill Ward says he could be worth some consideration on FanDuel in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
The big question this week is how do you want to approach the running back position. You could go with three studs, three values, or anything in between.
Gibson is the one guy who is a lock, and he’s the first player into my lineups this week. I also really like Williams, who should see plenty of work as a receiver and a pass-catcher. I lean Mitchell for the third spot, but I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to pay up for Taylor or Fournette.
After that, locking in Moreau at tight end is a no-brainer. He’s simply too cheap to pass up on DraftKings, and he gives you tons of available cap space when paired with Gibson, Williams, and Mitchell.
That gives us plenty of room to jam in Kupp and Johnson at receiver, who are my two favorite cash-game options. Both players are so involved in their respective offenses that there’s minimal downside.
If you use Reynolds as your WR3, that gives you plenty of salary to fill out your defense and quarterback slots. If you want to go with a value option at QB, you can upgrade your WR3 to someone like Aiyuk or Hunter Renfrow pretty easily.
On FanDuel, things come together similarly this week. The big differences are that Fournette and Kupp both become borderline must-plays given the pricing discrepancy. I’m also more likely to spend up for a second receiver like Justin Jefferson, who also owns a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Locking in those three players with Williams, Gibson, and Moreau still gives you plenty of room to get to Jackson at quarterback.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
